What are the Pittsburgh Pirates really getting out of utility man Jason Rogers?
This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players on the roster and give you, the readers, their take on whether or not they think said player will meet, surpass, or fall below those projections. The projections for Steamer and ZiPs (created by Dan Szymborski) can be found on fangraphs.com. Yesterday, editor Tyler Waite took a look at the projections for Gregory Polanco. Today, we turn to utility man Jason Rogers.
On December 17, 2015, the Pirates acquired Jason Rogers from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for outfielder Keon Broxton and pitcher Trey Supak. The move is seemingly a minor move, but one that could have big ramifications for both teams. After the Brewers dealt Adam Lind to the Seattle Mariners on December 9, 2015, Rogers looked like the clear favorite to get the bulk of the work for the rebuilding Brewers at first base. However, the Brewers dealt Rogers and then signed Chris Carter to fill the void.
On their end of the deal, the Brewers got an outfielder with outstanding speed, despite below average ability on the base paths and in the batter’s box. They also got the Pirates’ 2014 second round pick in Trey Supak, who projects to be a middle of the rotation starter. But after two extremely disappointing seasons in short season ball, the Pirates decided to dump Supak before risking his value diminishing any further.
The Pirates in return got a utility player capable of playing the corner infield and corner outfield positions. A steal in the 32nd round in 2010, Rogers was named the Brewers’ 2013 Robin Yount Minor League Player of the Year. His glove had always been considered questionable, but he had the raw power to continue being given opportunities to prove he belonged. The faith the Brewers showed in Rogers paid off. Even with one of the best first basemen in the division in 2015 in Lind, Rogers kept forcing the Brewers to find opportunities to get his bat in the lineup.
Now entering the 2016 campaign, Jason Rogers once again finds himself stuck between a rock and a hard place. Held up behind John Jaso and Mike Morse and chased by the future at first base in Pittsburgh in Josh Bell, Rogers will have to earn every at-bat he gets this season. If he can replicate his 2015 production, he should be more than able to find his way through the crowded first base situation.
Let’s take a look at Rogers’ 2016 projections.
[table id=65 /]Don’t be fooled by the 2014 big league stats, as if any stock should be put in just ten plate appearances anyway. Having something to prove right from the start seems to have left quite a sizeable chip on the shoulders of Rogers. He has paid back the investment in spades. Following his call-up in 2014, that was the one time Rogers struggled offensively in his entire professional career.
His defense has been another matter. He has committed 23 errors over parts of three seasons at third, which is good for a mere .935 fielding percentage. He has posted a .989 fielding percentage in left field, including four assists in 534.1 innings. Most importantly, in 2015 Rogers committed just one error in 203.1 innings at first base to the tune of a fielding percentage of .995, which would have been good enough for 14th in all of baseball last year had he qualified.
The only true offensive question anyone ever had about Rogers’ offense was his ability to hit right-handed pitchers. He answered those questions soundly in 2015. He batted .317 against RHP and .271 against LHP in his situational role for the Brewers. Rogers was also extremely helpful whenever it came to pinch hitting, as he batted .265 in those situations. He also was key in close, late game situations. He batted .350 under those circumstances and .338 between innings seven and nine. He likely still has some work to do after putting up several unimpressive months before having a breakout final month of the season in 2015. He looks to carry that over to a new season and to a new team.
One other thing the Pirates hope he can carry over to 2016 is his ability to crush NL central pitching. Rogers batted .404 last season against the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals. He also hit a home run against each of those teams.
The Pirates also had plenty of opportunities to see Rogers. He went 9-20 at the plate with a slash line of .529/.600/.765, including this home run.
He should get a chance to get some at-bats early in the season at third until Jung Ho Kang is recovered from his leg injury. Depending on how the situation at first is playing out and how Rogers is batting, he may just have a chance to earn his way into the lineup a little more often once he gets forced from any consistent playing time at third.
The 2016 projections for Rogers are rather consistent with his 2015 performance as a pinch hitter. The system is clearly not a fan of his chances to break through the log jam at first. At every level, Rogers has outperformed the expectations placed before him. The real question will be whether 2015 was just a fluke or not. If he can carry over the offensive performance, he could certainly get the majority of the workload at first until Josh Bell is ready, and that would not be a bad thing.
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