2016 Pittsburgh Pirates Series Preview – A Red Homecoming

After an abbreviated but successful West Coast road trip, the Pittsburgh Pirates return home seeking revenge against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Pittsburgh Pirates were unable to complete their four-game series against the Colorado Rockies due to late April snow showers in wild and wacky Denver.

Even though they will have to make up that game at some point this season, the club’s first West Coast trip was a success overall. Returning home with a 6-3 record – with two of those wins coming in extended fashion – is the mark of a successful road trip, no matter the caliber of the competition.

This upcoming series versus the Reds takes on some degree of higher importance in that this will be the last series before facing the Chicago Cubs for the first time. I’ve opined previously that the Cubs are likely for real. Stacking wins before they arrive in Pittsburgh would be very advantageous for the Pirates. If their starters can find a way to lengthen their outings, a shaky bullpen can be well rested for what promises to be an epic battle. They are certainly seeing the Reds at the right time, as Cincinnati are losers of four straight.

That is not to say that the Pirates should look ahead to the Cubs. Despite a profound lack of pitching, the Reds still carry a potent offense. Despite slow starts from Joey Votto and Devon Mesoroco, Cincinnati is getting surprise production from Eugenio Suarez and typical numbers from Jay Bruce. Despite a clear advantage in pitching, the Pirates would do well to not take this Reds lineup lightly.

Pitching Matchups

Game One:  RHP Dan Straily (0-0, 3.50 ERA) vs. RHP Juan Nicasio (2-2, 4.50 ERA)

Game Two: RHP Alfredo Simon (0-2 16.39 ERA) vs. LHP Francisco Liriano (1-1, 4.64 ERA)

Game Three: RHP Raisel Iglesias (1-1, 3.49 ERA) vs. LHP Jeff Locke (1-2, 5.03 ERA)

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Just as it was when these teams first met, the Pirates will trot out two left-handers against the Reds, which could mean trouble in a very curious way. As a team, Cincinnati has reverse splits, slashing .273/.346/.441. However, their two major run-creation cogs in Votto and Bruce both struggle against LHP, with an OPS of .443 and .618 respectively.

Since these teams last met, Simon has been on a historic stretch of futility.

When Simon first faced the Pirates earlier this year, he saw a team that was just beginning to forger an identity as a club that grinds out at-bats. With that vision full realized, Pittsburgh might simply need to ‘be themselves’ to get to Simon early.

Something to Prove

For the Pirates, two of their projected starters find themselves still working to prove a thing or two.

After receiving an extra day of rest, Nicasio will look to continue to build his case to remain in the starting rotation. After bottoming out in a three-inning loss to the Tigers on April 12, Nicasio has worked consecutive starts of five-plus innings. Control remains an issue for the hard-throwing right hander. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, he needed 101 pitches to get through five innings while walking four. The dangerous hitters in the Reds’ lineup are excellent fastball hitters. Nicasio will have to locate his fastball and rely on his secondary stuff for out pitches.

After coming under fire for his three-inning, eleven hit and eight run outing on April 20, Locke responded by turning in a quality start in Coors Field. With eight strikeouts and no earned runs allowed in a dangerous ballpark, Locke proved that he may yet be able to help this team. This start against Cincinnati will be crucial for Locke to continue to cement that theory.

Historical Numbers

Here now are career numbers for Cincinnati starters against current Pittsburgh hitters.

Pirates hitters against Straily

Pirates hitters against Simon

Hitter to Avoid – Zack Cozart

Zack Cozart has a been a surprise for the Reds, with a .397/.388/.603 slash to go along with 25 hits and 13 runs as a lead-off hitter. Cozart is an excellent contact hitter, with just eight strikeouts in 63 at-bats, a 12.2 percent rate. The Pirates hurlers will have to pitch-to-contact with Cozart and trust the defense behind them. Cozart comes in hitting .409 over the last seven days.

Cozart historically struggles against current Pirates pitchers, and we may get a firm idea if Cozart’s early season performance is legitimate and lasting.

These are not the same two teams that met earlier this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates’ run production is humming along. The Reds have regressed to where many thought they would be after a feisty start to the season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the edge over Cincinnati in many areas, but should the Reds’ bats win the race to get to the bullpen, all bets might be off. The Pirates relievers – from Arquimedes Caminero all the way through to Mark Melancon – has been a shadow of what many thought it would be to this point, and the unit has a way of letting teams back into games quickly. Still, with a strong hitting lineup, the Pirates should have no problems winning two out of three.

Photo credit – AP Photo/John Minchillo