After losing their last two series, the Pittsburgh Pirates hope a weekend series along the shores of the Allegheny is exactly what they need to rebound and continue the chase for the Central.
The Pittsburgh Pirates barely managed to avoid the sweep against the Detroit Tigers, dropping three out of four. They generally looked rather unimpressive throughout much of the series. The keys will be the bullpen finding consistency and the offense finally driving in some of their teammates that they have left on base all too often this early in the season.
For the Brewers, they’re coming off of a series in which they dropped two of three against the Cardinals in St. Louis, which is where they’ve lost more games since 2013 than any other ballpark. The only place that comes close to that total is PNC Park, where the Brewers are 12-18 over the last three seasons.
In regards to the pitching matchups, both clubs send the bottom of their rotations to the mound. The matchups favor the Pirates slightly, if only for the simple fact that Jeff Locke put in a solid start his last time out. Taylor Jungmann has had a rough start to his 2016 campaign, and Jon Niese is likely to be consistent in surrendering three runs or less in his starts. Juan Nicasio will have a lot to prove after he struggled mightily in his last outing.
Here’s a more in-depth look at how the Pirates hitters match up against the Brewers.
Pirates hitters versus Jimmy Nelson:
Nelson may be facing the Pirates at the perfect time. Since making his debut in 2013, he has been a below average pitcher for his position near the top of the rotation. He posted a 4.11 ERA in his first full season last year. Over the course of his brief career, the Pirates have walked and struck out more than any other NL Central opponents. In six starts, Nelson averaged six innings per start, while holding a 2.48 ERA and a .197 batting average against, lowest of any NL Central opponents.
He’s off to a decent start in 2016, posting a 2.70 ERA over his first two starts. That could change if Andrew McCutchen has anything to say about it. The Pirates star has been off to yet another slow start in April. McCutchen has slashed .429/.636/.714 with four walks and a strikeout in 11 at bats. McCutchen is the powder keg atop the Pirates lineup, as he goes, so goes the rest. His past success against Nelson may not be an indication of success any more than his poor performance in April may be an indication of his struggles, but one thing is for sure, when Andrew McCutchen finally gets it together offensively, he will be a force with which to be reckoned. Nelson could be the spark that lights the match.
Gregory Polanco struggled against Nelson in 2015, hitting only .200, but similar to Nelson, Polanco has shown signs of emerging from some early growing pains. Regardless, Polanco’s position in the lineup could be detrimental if Nelson gets the best of the Pirates’ young right fielder this go around, but whomever wins this battle may still lose the war throughout the course of the season. Look for Polanco to get the better of Nelson sooner or later.
Pirates hitters versus Taylor Jungmann:
Jungmann struggled in the second in his MLB debut last season. He posted a 2.15 ERA over the first half and followed it up with a 4.79 ERA. For the season, he had a 3.77 ERA. In two starts this season, he has an ERA of 11.57. Once again, the Pirates posted the lowest ERA at 2.42 and batting average against at .165 of any of the Brewers’ NL Central division opponents. They also posted the highest amount of walks (9) and strikeouts (20) of any of those teams once again, as well.
It’s rare that a player who has yet to get a hit against a pitcher would be the player to watch to have a big impact, but that’s exactly the case with Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli is 0-8 in 12 plate appearances against Jungmann with two walks and a strikeout. Cervelli would lead all hitters on the team if only he qualified with his .370 average. He’s also second on the team in RBI with seven. It’s highly unlikely Cervelli continues being hitless for long against a struggling young pitcher, even if that lasts beyond Saturday.
Starling Marte has been better than Cervelli in RBI this season and against Jungmann last season. Marte picked up one hit in nine at bats with his only hit being a homerun. He didn’t walk against Jungmann at all and struck out twice. Marte is exactly the type of hitter Jungmann needs to face right now in the middle of a struggle. Marte is quietly off to a great start batting .317/.378/.512. Of course the homeruns are noticeable, and the average is outstanding. But Marte is averaging nearly a strikeout a game with nine through the first ten. Jungmann has a solid change and curve that he likes to bury away against righties. Marte swings at those pitches from right-handed pitchers 32.43% of the time.
The Brewers pitcher for the third game is still to be determined while they figure out the situation in replacing Matt Garza who will be out three to five weeks with a strained muscle in his back.
Brewers hitter to avoid: Scooter Gennett:
First thought on the most fearsome batter in the Brewers lineup would draw a lot of calls for Ryan Braun or Jonathan Lucroy, but it’s possible the hitter to avoid will be Scooter Gennett. Gennett has slashed .340/.396/.433 against the Pirates for his career. That stayed consistent in 2015 with a slash line of .345/.457/.414 against the Pirates, which shows that Gennett has gotten more patient than he was even early on in his career. That has carried over early in 2016. Gennett is slashing .300/.400/.600 after the first two weeks of the season. He’s struck out seven times, but he’s also walked five times already. He’s also hit three solo homeruns, tied for the team lead with Chris Carter.
Gennett has hit Arquimedes Caminero hard in a very limited sample size. He has two hits in four plate appearances with a walk and a strikeout against Caminero, which does not bode well for the sabermetrics approach the Pirates have been employing for bullpen matchups so far.
Jeff Locke has struggled against Jeff Locke, going 1-4 in five plate appearances, which makes it all that much more important that Locke manages to put together a solid outing tonight against the Brewers.
Both the Brewers and the Pirates are in desperate need of a series win, but the Pirates overall talent superiority and past success at PNC Park could give them the edge they need to get back on the right track. More importantly, the Pirates need to capitalize on games against the Brewers and Reds more than they did in 2015. The Cardinals have already capitalized this week with a series win. Hopefully, the Pirates can continue their success at home against Milwaukee and turn PNC Park into the house of horrors Miller Park had been in the past for the Bucs.
Look for the Brewers to lose the battle of pitching in this series, as the Pirates will take at least two of the three games.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
