After quarterback, running back, fullback, wide receiver, tight end, offensive tackle, guard, center, defensive line, and outside linebacker, the next stop of our trip around the Tennessee Titans position by position as we head into the 2016 offseason is a look at the inside linebackers.
In the preseason, I noted I agreed with Ken Whisenhunt’s perhaps somewhat equivocal endorsement, when he declared ILB a “position we’ve seen a lot of good things and expect good play.” On the whole, I think the Titans got mostly what they were expecting from their inside linebackers in 2015 and it wasn’t the problem on defense. One of the key players is set to be a free agent, though, so the Titans have a decision to make about what, if anything, to do for 2016.
I suppose it’s incumbent upon me to start this positional analysis with the player who played the most, Avery Williamson. The second-year man led the team in tackles with 102. So, digression but maybe not a digression time.
Williamson’s team-leading total of 102 tackles comes from the NFL. First, the NFL’s tackle total adds together primary tackles and tackle assists. Tackle assist numbers are a particular bugbear of anybody doing statistical analysis of NFL players, because (1) they vary wildly from stadium to stadium (Buffalo’s official scorer is notorious for handing out tackle assists to guys in the vicinity of a play) and (2) they aren’t the same thing as primary tackles, but the NFL adds them together (though they do now list primary tackles and assists separately on the team’s page on NFL.com, something I don’t believe they used to do). By primary tackles, Williamson ranks second on the team, behind Michael Griffin.
Second, tackle totals are unofficial tallies done by the official scorer in pretty much real-time. Anybody who spends time watching and re-watching plays trying to see what happened will notice that sometimes the person listed as making the tackle was not really the one who made the tackle. Teams produce their own tackle numbers based on their own grading, and I’ll trust those every day over what the NFL puts out.
Third, tackle numbers just tell you who made the tackle. They don’t tell you which defensive player was most responsible for why the play failed or succeeded as it did. Sometimes there’s a corner or other player in coverage who makes the tackle after a reception. But if the safety makes the play, then the cornerback doesn’t make the play-by-play. If a defensive lineman blows up a block or holds a double team and the linebacker makes the tackle, the linebacker gets the credit even though the lineman made the play. I use tackle stats because they’re sometimes indicative (the player who made the tackle actually does get credit for making the tackle the vast majority of the time) and we have them, but I try not to rely too heavily on them.
Fourth, every defensive play that doesn’t end with an incompletion, the offensive player voluntarily giving themselves up (either in or out of bounds), or a touchdown has a tackle. Somebody on defense will get credit for that tackle. Middle linebackers who play regularly will tend to be at or near the top of their team’s lead in tackles. Said middle linebacker may be good, extremely good, or not necessarily that good. Nearly a decade ago, I dubbed this The DeMeco Ryans Problem, but more recently renamed it The James Laurinaitis Problem, and I would probably find a new name for it if I used the concept more frequently. Anyway, back specifically to Avery Williamson.
Williamson was the Titans’ preferred middle linebacker, and played regularly in all situations, including as the dime linebacker. His 926 snaps were fourth on the defense despite missing the Dolphins game (926 snaps, 87.4% of total, 93.3% when healthy). He had 3.5 sacks and 1 interception. He was credited with more tackles against the run, including more successful tackles against the run, than any other Titans defender.
And I struggle watching him (I watched him and the other ILBs against New England specifically for this post, but that just reinforced impressions I had from other games). He doesn’t make a ton of high-impact tackles. He made more downfield tackles on run plays than any other Titans defender, the sort of “somebody has to make them” tackles. I questioned his work in pass coverage as a rookie and before the season; he probably did progress in that area, but not as much as I think I would have liked to see (unless I’m wrong in this area, which of course is a real possibility).
He’s clearly the best middle linebacker on the Titans roster and is just heading into his third season, so there’s a good case for him to improve still. You could upgrade on him, but it would require a significant effort to do so, and the Titans have way too many other needs for that to be a priority (including how to address the other ILB spot). So, he’ll start again, play again, and play a lot again in 2016, and that won’t be an issue.
The inside linebacker spot next to Williamson was a platoon in 2015, and one that on the whole I thought worked fairly well. One of those players is a free agent, though, and seems unlikely to return, so the Titans will have to decide how to handle that for next season.
Wesley Woodyard played slightly more than the other player and is under contract for 2016, so I’ll mention him first. The weak inside linebacker rotation went in fits and starts at times; Woodyard played just 6 snaps against the Browns in Week 2, but played more snaps than his rotation partner in seven of the final nine games. On the whole, he played 500 snaps (47.2%). He tended to play more on the early downs and against base personnel looks. He’s not as physical a player as Williamson, but is more of a WILB than an MLB. I like his work as a veteran-he tends to be more aggressive and better than Williamson at getting to spots before the offense does (some of that may be scheme). He’s not an ideal mover, which is why he didn’t play every snap, and turning 30 in July it’s not reasonable to expect his movement skills to improve. But he ranked second behind Williamson in the number of run tackles and made nearly as many successful run tackles (43 v. 47) despite playing many fewer snaps, plus he ranked third on the team with 5.0 sacks.
I suppose a base salary of $3.5 million could lead the Titans to want to move on, but there’s not an obvious replacement for him on the roster, the Titans have plenty of cap space, and they have enough needs that they don’t need to be creating more. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they spend a middle rounds pick on a player with the intent of him taking Woodyard’s job in 2017.
If I had to sum up Zach Brown‘s playing style in one pithy, perhaps somewhat unfair quote, it would be: “He never saw a block he wouldn’t prefer to defeat by running around it, and he’s fast enough this sometimes works.” While Woodyard played more against base sets, Brown’s usage tended to be more in obvious passing situations and in nickel packages when the Titans played nickel. He started the season playing more than Woodyard, then gradually turned into that part-time, more specialized role (495 snaps, 46.7% of total, 78.0% the first five weeks and 34.1% thereafter). His best work came in pass coverage, not just the two interceptions but more successful tackles than any other Titans defender (really, he made a play for every play you’d like to see him make).
He’s a free agent this offseason, and I’m very curious to see what happens to him. My guess is some team will fall in love with the plays he makes in coverage, decide they can live with his sometimes anti-physical play, and give him a lot more money than the Titans would prefer to give a player who was a part-timer for them. If he’s cheaper than I think he’ll be and wants to stay, then there’s a chance he stays. But I don’t think he’ll be cheap, and my guess is he’ll want a fresh start somewhere else.
My preseason confidence in the position group was in the top three players, while the bottom of the group seemed ripe for change. That’s exactly what happened, as the Titans claimed Steven Johnson off waivers after the cutdown to 53. He played just 27 snaps on defense (2.5%), and 21 of those came in garbage time in Week 1. He was instead a key special teams contributor. A free agent this offseason, it’s possible the Titans could want him back for the same role. But I doubt it. Mike Mularkey’s planned special teams makeover will probably include some changes in core special teamers, and I doubt Johnson has a non-special teams future in Tennessee.
Justin Staples started the season on the practice squad and was elevated to the active roster after Week 5 when Deiontrez Mount went to injured reserve. His 23 snaps (2.2%) came at outside linebacker, but I’m listing him here because that’s where he played in the preseason when the Titans had options. Pencil him in for the fourth inside linebacker spot.
There will be roster flotsam and jetsam here eventually, but there is not any yet as the Titans did not have any inside linebackers on the practice squad and did not sign any to future contracts.
Conclusion-Type Thoughts
I doubt the Titans go into training camp without making at least one potential contributor-level addition at inside linebacker, preferably more of a space player. I do not expect that player to be Zach Brown, unless their evaluation of Brown is different from what I think it is. I’m not in love with the Titans’ inside linebackers, but with so many other areas of need it wouldn’t surprise or bother me to go into 2016 planning to start the same players who ended up starting in 2015.
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