After quarterback, running back, fullback, wide receiver, tight end, offensive tackle, guard, center, and defensive line, the second defensive stop of our trip around the Tennessee Titans position by position as we head into the 2016 offseason is a look at the outside linebackers.
Some positional analyses are complicated, or at least feature a lot of uncertainty. Outside linebacker poses no such issues. The Titans have two good or better starters. The Titans had zero depth behind them in 2015. When the two starters both played, the Titans had a good group of outside linebackers. When one of them got hurt, well, I’ll cite my conclusion to the preseason positional analysis: “if Brian Orakpo or Derrick Morgan does go down the Titans are screwed.” One of them did go down, and they were.
I mentioned the numbers first on Twitter and then here in my records post. When the Titans had both Morgan and Orakpo in the lineup, they were a solid defense. By Football Outsiders numbers (I write for FO perma-disclaimer), they were 12th overall through Week 11, Morgan’s last game. Run defense (see Miami) was an issue, as they ranked 23rd, but they were a solid pass defense (10th). The biggest reason the Titans were a good pass defense was they excelled at getting after the passer, ranking first in the league per FO’s adjusted sack rate. Then Morgan got hurt and everything collapsed.
Over the final six weeks of the season, the Titans had the second-worst defense in football by DVOA, ahead of only the New Orleans Saints. For context, New Orleans is the worst defense in the 27-year history of DVOA. Run defense was not the issue-it was still not good, but didn’t decline much, ranking 22nd with a slightly worse DVOA. What changed was the pass defense. The Titans had the second-worst pass defense DVOA in the NFL over the final six weeks of the season, ahead of only New Orleans. New Orleans was so bad, though, that understates just how awful the Titans’ pass defense was, so I’ll try a different way.
Over the final six weeks of the season, the Titans had a pass defense DVOA of 40.9% (on defense, positive numbers are bad). Here are the teams in the history of DVOA to have a worse pass defense than that over the course of a season: the 2015 New Orleans Saints (48.1%), the 1996 Baltimore Ravens (42.0%), and the 1999 San Francisco 49ers (41.7%). So, it wasn’t just bad, or pretty bad, or really bad, it was really incredibly bad even if not New Orleans bad.
One major reason the pass defense collapsed was the pass rush collapsed. The Titans ranked first with an adjusted sack rate of 10.0% in the games Morgan played. In the final six weeks of the season, they posted an ASR of 3.8%, 31st in the league. Quarterbacks didn’t go down nearly as often. Not only did they not go down, they had more time to throw and were more productive in the passes they did attempt.
Those numbers make the plan Jon Robinson and company should follow pretty clear. First, make sure Morgan rehabs his shoulder injury. Second, make sure you have quality depth so the defense doesn’t collapse if either Morgan or Orakpo gets hurt again.
Now, the players.
If I didn’t give the hypothetical defensive MVP award to Jurrell Casey, I might have given it to Brian Orakpo. The Titans’ premier free agency addition last offseason, the only real question I had about him was his availability given he’d been banged up two of the past three seasons. He more than answered those questions. He was active every game, and his 961 snaps were second-most on defense (90.7% of total, 92.8% if you only look at Weeks 2-17).
I wrote in the preseason a healthy Orakpo was one of the league’s better 3-4 weakside linebackers. His on-field play lived up to his billing as a complete player. His 7.0 sacks matched Casey for the team lead. He led the team in defeats, a FO statistic that includes tackles for a loss, turnovers, and third/fourth down stops, against both the run and the pass. He did well in pass coverage. He was on the whole pretty much the player the Titans thought they were getting and the player I thought the Titans were getting.
For 2016, I expect more of the same for Orakpo. I’d like to see him more around 75-80% of snaps. He went sack-less in that final six game stretch. Part of that was Morgan’s absence, but part of that was probably wearing down from being forced to play so many snaps every game. He turns 30 at the end of July, so I wouldn’t expect him to be more than he’s been. But what he is is pretty good.
If I didn’t give the hypothetical defensive MVP award to Casey or Orakpo, I might have given it to Derrick Morgan. The case for him is pretty clear in the “with or without him” numbers above, and Orakpo’s sack-less finish to the season. Then again, (1) had Orakpo gone down, the defense probably would’ve fallen off pretty much the same cliff, and (2) I’m not sure Morgan had more than just a “typical Derrick Morgan season” of the sort that has led me to name Casey the defensive MVP over him in the past. The tricky thing for me is I tend to establish a book on a player, and then trot that book out when a fresh evaluation might say some different things about how a player might have changed.
But without that fresh Morgan evaluation, I’ll mention the same sorts of things I’ve been mentioning about him for a couple years. Good all-around player, 4.5 sacks were fourth on the team, solid against the run and better than I thought he’d be before 2014 in pass coverage. He didn’t actually make many tackles against the run, less than half as many as Orakpo. Like Orakpo, he was asked to play pretty much every snap when he was out there (530 snaps, 50.0% of total, 93.1% excluding Week 1 & in-game injuries against Saints and Jaguars). Like Orakpo, I’d like to see him play more like 75-80% of the time. Like Orakpo, I expect more of the same from him in 2016.
Morgan’s injury took David Bass from a 9 snap per game player to an every-down role (really, he played exactly 9 snaps in the last four games Morgan was healthy). As an every-down player, he’s an interesting pass rushing specialist. One interception, 1.5 sacks, more run tackles than Morgan had in 1 less snap (529, 49.9% of total, 96.1% the last six games). I think we learned in 2015 he’s not likely to be the OLB3 in 2016, so the question becomes whether he’s the best possible option as an OLB4 (or OLB5 if the Titans go there). My early guess is he’s not, but I don’t know which of the next players I’ll mention the Titans actually like.
I almost listed Deiontrez Mount before Bass. Though he only played 49 snaps before going on injured reserve after four games, he was playing ahead of Bass in those games. Ultimately, I decided (1) Bass played so many more snaps over the course of the season I had to mention him first, and (2) the early playing time could easily have been a function of Bass being a waiver wire pickup and Mount a sixth-round pick who’d been with the team for the offseason. His 2016 fate depends on his recovery from his ACL tear and what else the Titans do at the position; I’d be loath to make him the OLB3 given his inexperience and lack of pedigree and coming off an injury, but who knows what the Titans think.
Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil got hurt early in the preseason, took an injury settlement, was signed to the practice squad in November, made the active roster, played 12 snaps in the two games after Morgan got hurt, then got hurt again (knee this time, not the earlier hamstring), and went to injured reserve. Like YCV, J.R. Tavai was with the team in preseason as an undrafted free agent, got hurt, was signed to the practice squad in November, and made the active roster late in the year, playing only a handful of snaps (14 in the final four games, including 0 in the season finale). YCV seems to be more of a WOLB/ROLB, while Tavai is an SOLB/LOLB. Throw them in the mix for the OLB4/5 spots next year.
Justin Staples played 23 snaps of outside linebacker after Morgan got hurt. He was exclusively an inside linebacker in the preseason, when the Titans had options, he’s listed as an inside linebacker on the depth chart, and I’ll consider him with the inside linebackers.
Conclusion-Type Thoughts
Two good starters, who should be good starters when they’re on the field. Major depth issues, which forced the two starters to play too much, probably wore them down over the course of the year, and, oh, yeah, the defense completely collapsed when one of them got hurt. The Titans don’t need a starter, but they could really really really use a player capable of contributing 25 snaps a game starting in Week 1 and who could play 50 snaps a game if need be without the team completely collapsing. This could be a middle-priced free agent, but my preference might be for a draft pick in the day two range. You could justify a Joey Bosa draft selection if you believe Bosa is a super player likely to be a standout NFL pass rusher, but my preliminary take is that I don’t really see Bosa as that kind of player.
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