After the customary first stop at quarterback, the next stop on our trip around the Tennessee Titans position by position as we head into the 2016 offseason is a look at the running backs.
In his round of post-press conference radio interviews, Mike Mularkey was asked about the Titans’ collection of running backs and specifically if he was satisfied by the talent level there. The first part of his response: “I think we know what we have at that position. Everybody really had the opportunity to show what their abilities were.” The latter part of his statement is correct. The committee I expected in the preseason positional analysis was even more of a committee than I thought it might be, as the top four backs had at least 47 carries and led the Titans in snaps and in carries in at least one game. It’s hard to read that first sentence as anything other than an indictment on the position group, and particularly that Mularkey wants the sort of lead back he had in Buffalo, Atlanta, and Jacksonville, and doesn’t see that back on the roster. For now, though, let’s look at what the Titans have on the roster right now.
I’ve mentioned before I like to mention players in a rough depth chart order. The messy committee makes that a challenging proposition-do I first examine the player who went into the season as the presumptive favorite in the committee, the player who led the group in snaps in games 2-7 and had the most receptions, the back who took over a heavy workload when Mularkey was named interim coach and led the group and team in carries by a significant margin, or the back who’d supplanted him as the lead ball-carrier by season’s end?
I’ll go with the last, since David Cobb was the back Mularkey specifically praised in his answer, or at least “I think David Cobb showed some things in that last game” is as close to praise as Mularkey got in discussing the backs. Cobb finished the season with 52 carries for 146 yards in the seven games he played after returning from IR-boomerang (114 snaps, 11.0% of the total, 20.1% PT under Mularkey). You don’t need advanced statistics to tell you 2.8 yards per carry is not very good. Longtime readers will know I’m not a fan of YPC, but it’s reasonably illustrative here-Cobb had a combination of very short runs, some due to him, some due to the offensive line, and no long runs (longest gain 12 yards on the season). That was a bit disappointing, but not really much of a surprise for a back I compared to Shonn Greene in the preseason positional analysis.
The big question is what Cobb’s role might be for the Titans in 2016. That will depend a lot on what type of back the Titans add this year (and, yes, I would be extremely surprised if they did not add a back they expect to be a significant contributor). Though Mularkey had a single lead back in his past three coordinator/coach stops, in Pittsburgh he sometimes used more of a committee. If he really likes Cobb and is willing to trust him after a slower than expected transition to the NFL even before he went to IR, his upside could be in the 200-220 carry range as the power back in a committee who catches few passes (2 targets, 1 reception for -2 yards last year). The other end of the spectrum in a potential Cobb projection is the Titans add a back in free agency or the draft they really like and he gets most of the carries while Cobb is a backup and ends up around 50 carries again.
Mentioning Cobb first doesn’t solve the problem of who to mention second. I’ll go with the man whose job Cobb basically took in Week 17, Antonio Andrews. A scratch the first two games, he took over first the committee role Terrance West occupied, then eventually the lead back duties when Mularkey took over. Making a concerted effort to get him the ball was part of the gameplan in the encouraging win over the Saints, and only nitpickers like me mention most of his carries did jack-squat. He led the Titans in running back snaps from Week 8 against the Texans (Ken Whisenhunt’s last game, tied with the next guy I’ll mention) through Week 15 against New England (422 snaps on the season, 40.7% of total, 54.2% under Mularkey). His usage the last two games and the tone of Mularkey’s comments made it clear that the Titans had just seen enough and that his 143 carries for 520 yards. He had a similar profile as Cobb, but enough longer runs (four of at least 20 yards) to lift his YPC up to 3.6. By advanced stats, he was 38th (of 44) by DVOA and 39th by success rate, my preferred simple measure of running back performance (I write for Football Outsiders perma-disclaimer). The Titans also gave him some passing downs work; he was eh in pass protection, I thought, and caught 21 passes for 174 yards and whatever.
Andrews shows up on the lists of various free agents; that’s apparently true, but only technically so. With just two seasons in the NFL, he’s of the exclusive rights variety so the Titans will re-sign him unless they’ve soured on him so much they don’t want him around anymore. So, if I have a change of heart and come back to write a preseason positional analysis, I expect to be writing about him again. His 2016 role will depend in part on the Titans finding a passing downs back they actually like and can trust; he’s not who I think of for that role, but Mularkey did like him enough to give him a lot of work, and he can play special teams and return kicks (not that he should-1 return last year).
If Andrews was the back for Mularkey’s offense, Dexter McCluster was the back for Whisenhunt’s. He led the group in snaps from Week 2 through Week 8 (tied with Andrews) and finished second in the group in snaps despite only playing in the last six games (307 total, 29.6% of total, 42.6% when active, 47.7% under Whisenhunt, 14.5% under Mularkey, 33.1% under Mularkey when active). He did well against the Browns in Week 2 (10-98 on the ground) but aside from that was just as ineffective rushing as he’d been most of his career (-14.9% DVOA, 31% success rate). He had enough bigger gains to finish at 4.5 ypc on 55-247, but that’s YPC for you. His most important work was in the pass game, where he was a game if too undersized blocker and mostly humdrum if occasionally flashy receiver (31 catches on 41 targets, 260 yards).
I wrote when the Titans signed him before 2014 I thought McCluster was a gadget player, and he’s failed to transcend my expectations for him. Whisenhunt loved gadget players. Mularkey doesn’t seem to in the same way, but the Titans do still need a passing game back. That could be Andrews. That could be McCluster. That could be newcomer X. The obvious temptation is to say McCluster’s $2.275 million base salary makes him expendable. But the Titans are not right now under any cap pressure at all, and McCluster could fill a very useful role on offense. He’s absolutely not a lock to be around for training camp, let alone when the regular season begins, but it’s not as blindingly obvious as you might guess the Titans cut McCluster. One thing that would give us clarity is his reported $375,000 roster bonus; I’m not sure when exactly that’s due but probably either this month or next.
What the heck happened to Bishop Sankey is one of the biggest unsolved mysteries of the 2015 Titans. He was the consensus choice among The Reporters Who Cover The Titans as the team’s favorite to be the lead back, but by Week 3 he’d been surpassed by McCluster in snaps and was firmly in a smaller committee role than he’d been the year before. By Week 7 against Atlanta, just 2 snaps. Week 11 at Jacksonville, a healthy scratch. For the season, he played just 179 snaps in 14 games (17.2% of total, 24.8% under Whisenhunt, 11.0% under Mularkey) and had just 47 carries for 193 yards. By advanced stats, he was the Titans’ most effective running back with a DVOA of -1.5% and success rate of 45%. But until Mularkey resurrected him after McCluster went on IR with his wrist injury, he was almost completely forgotten as a runner or pass game back and receiver (14 catches on 22 targets, 139 yards).
The obvious answer is Sankey isn’t any good; the problem with that was neither was any of the other backs, and it’s not like he’d done anything that indicated he actually was good. Maybe there were coaching points, like the tracking on runs Whisenhunt liked to mention, or some lack of development as a pass blocker, or just Whisenhunt gleefully abandoning the run and going with more of a power back in Andrews when he did. Maybe, maybe, maybe.
Sankey is just two years removed from his selection in the second round, but that was Ruston Webster’s doing and we don’t know if Jon Robinson feels similarly that high draft picks must be given three years to show they can produce before being cut. There’s no need, really, to cut him right now, and he could compete for the pass game back duties with Andrews and McCluster and [Your Name Here]. But unless Mularkey and Robinson like him more than I’m guessing they do, he’s probably toast unless he improves a lot.
The other back on the roster is David Fluellen, who spent the season on the practice squad and was signed to a futures contract at season’s end. He’s another power back to go with Cobb and Andrews.
Conclusion-Type Thoughts
The Titans will be adding at least one back they expect to be a major contributor in free agency or the draft. They may look to add two, a lead back type to handle the majority of the carries and a back to play in passing situations. If they do not add a power back, then I expect a committee where David Cobb gets a lot of the carries and another back or backs handle the passing game work. That pass game back could be any or none of Antonio Andrews, Dexter McCluster, or Bishop Sankey. My guess is the Titans would prefer to add two backs if there are two backs they like and force any returning players to earn playing time, but that’s mostly a guess. That the Titans will be making moves here and don’t think the group they had last year was good enough for them to play the way they want to play in 2016 is something I think we can be pretty sure of, though.
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