The WPIAL Playoff Committee will meet this evening and announce the playoff brackets for the six classifications. There are some lingering questions to keep an eye on,particularly if the WPIAL will deviate from their prior practice of not matching conference opponents in the first round. This policy was in place in the four-classification model, though the WPIAL had no problem scheduling rematches of non-conference games. The WPIAL’s policy the last few years was to avoid conference matchups until the quarterfinals. Now, with the larger classifications only getting 8 teams in the playoffs, the postseason starts at the quarterfinals, which could open the door for some conference rematches in the first round. Additionally, since 6A teams played 3 cross-conference games, it will be impossible to avoid a rematch for some teams. The second factor to watch will be how much weight the WPIAL places on non-conference games. Will Aliquippa be penalized with a lower seed because of their loss to Clairton? Will Ringgold be seeded above New Castle since the Rams beat the Red Hurricanes by 14 just two weeks ago? The third question to watch is whether or not the WPIAL will honor conference finishes. Last year, they seeded Pine-Richland 3rd in Quad-A with North Allegheny 4th and Central Catholic 5th despite Central Catholic claiming the top spot in the conference based on the WPIAL’s tiebreakers.
For a look at all of the WPIAL playoff teams, how they got here, their recent history and their best playoff performances, check out my WPIAL Playoff Primer.
A number of people have thrown out their proposed WPIAL bracket projections as we await the Selection Show tonight. I’ve been tracking them and at the end of the night will announce on Twitter who tops the WPIAL bracketology ranks this year. The scoring is simple – 2 points for a team seeded correctly, 1 for a team seeded within 1 spot of their actual seed. For now, here’s my best guess at the seedings:
Class 6A
1. Central Catholic (6-0, 9-1) vs 8. Norwin (3-3, 5-5)
4. Bethel Park (5-1, 5-4) vs 5. Pine-Richland (4-2, 6-4)
2. North Allegheny (5-1, 8-2) vs 7. Hempfield (4-2, 5-5)
3. Mt Lebanon (5-1, 7-3) vs 6. Seneca Valley (3-3, 6-3)
This was the easiest classification to seed. Central Catholic is the clear #1 and the only team undefeated in WPIAL play. NA’s only loss was to Central Catholic and they defeated both Mt Lebanon and Bethel Park head-to-head. Mt Lebanon topped Bethel for the Southeastern Conference title which earns the Blue Devils the third seed. Bethel Park and Central Catholic played all four teams that play road games so it is impossible to avoid a rematch. A NA-Hempfield rematch could be avoided if the WPIAL flips Hempfield and Norwin out of standings order (even though Hempfield beat Norwin to secure 3rd place in Week 9).
Class 5A
1. West Allegheny (8-0, 9-0) vs 8. Gateway (5-3, 6-4)
4. Woodland Hills (7-1, 8-2) vs 5. Franklin Regional (6-2, 7-2)
2. Armstrong (7-1, 9-1) vs 7. North Hills (5-3, 6-4)
3. McKeesport (6-2, 7-2) vs 6. Upper St Clair (6-2, 6-3)
This bracket also fell into place nicely. The only real debate here is whether McKeesport or Woodland Hills should be the #3 seed. Both teams lost to Penn-Trafford (McKeesport by 10 and Woody High by 19). Additionally, both teams lost to their eventual conference champions (McKeesport by 1 in Overtime and Woody High got mercy rule’d on their home field). McKeesport’s losses were closer, so I gave the Tigers the slight edge for the #3 seed. I avoided in-conference matchups but it was impossible to avoid a rematch for Upper St Clair as they faced McKeesport in non-conference play.
Class 4A
1. Thomas Jefferson (8-0, 9-0) vs 8. Montour (4-4, 4-5)
4. West Mifflin (6-2, 8-2) vs 5. Belle Vernon (6-2, 7-2)
2. South Fayette (8-0, 10-0) vs 7. New Castle (6-2, 6-4)
3. Mars (7-1, 8-2) vs. 6. Ringgold (6-2, 7-2)
Thomas Jefferson against Montour is the most obvious matchup prediction in the entire slate (with Clairton-Avella probably being a close second). Like with 5A, the debate here is Mars vs West Mifflin for the #3 seed. I opted for Mars because their two losses were to TJ and South Fayette whereas West Mifflin lost to Ringgold. Given that Ringgold just beat New Castle by 14, I seeded the 3 teams from the Big Nine Conference that finished in a 3-way tie consecutively at 4-5-6. This did create an in-conference rematchs between West Mifflin and Belle Vernon and between South Fayette and New Castle. In order to avoid these, the WPIAL would have to seed a team over a team that they beat (i.e. moving New Castle ahead of Ringgold or Ringgold ahead of Belle Vernon).
Class 3A
1. Keystone Oaks (7-0, 8-1) vs 8. South Park (5-2, 5-4)
4. Beaver Falls (5-1, 8-1) vs 5. Apollo-Ridge (5-2, 7-3)
2. Aliquippa (5-1, 8-2) vs 7. Mt Pleasant (5-2, 7-3)
3. Derry (7-0, 10-0) vs 6. Central Valley (4-2, 7-3)
3A is the hardest classification to predict. My gut says the WPIAL will want to keep Beaver Falls and Aliquippa on opposite sides of the bracket in order to facilitate a rematch at Heinz Field. Will they give the Quips the #1 seed despite Aliquippa’s losses to Beaver and Clairton? Aliquippa did win the toughest conference in 3A (Beaver Valley teams went 12-2 against all other 3A opponents with the only losses by last place Ellwood City) and the WPIAL has traditionally given top-seed preferences to its defending Champions. However, Aliquippa has more losses (2) than the other teams with home games and cases could be made for any of them to get the top seed. Derry could get the top seed as the only remaining undefeated team in 3A, but their relatively weak conference could play a role in their seeding (a la the Tri-County South in Class A in previous years). Keystone Oaks could get the top spot as the Eagles went undefeated in the Allegheny Conference and have the top scoring offense in 3A. KO’s only loss came in a shootout with Beaver. Another interesting scenario would be if the WPIAL opted to give Beaver Falls the top overall seed since the Tigers did what Aliquippa and KO could not – defeat Beaver. Beaver Falls is arguably the hottest team in 3A right now and have not lost since Week 1 against Aliquippa. Putting Beaver Falls first would require the WPIAL to put them ahead of the Quips who won the conference title based on the head-to-head tiebreaker (but that has not stopped the WPIAL from shuffling seeds in the past, remember).
Class 2A
1. Steel Valley (7-0, 9-0) vs 16. South Side Beaver (3-4, 4-5)
8. Burgettstown (4-3, 4-5) vs 9. CWNC (4-3, 5-4)
4. Riverside (6-1, 7-2) vs 13. Serra (3-4, 5-5)
5. East Allegheny (6-1, 7-3) vs 12. Frazier (4-3, 5-5)
2. Washington (7-0, 9-0) vs 15. Freedom (3-4, 3-7)
7. Brentwood (5-2, 7-2) vs 10. Laurel (4-3, 7-3)
3. Neshannock (7-0, 9-1) vs 14. Beth-Center (3-4, 3-6)
6. Chartiers-Houston (6-1, 7-3) vs 11. Avonworth (4-3, 5-4)
The top 3 seeds were easy choices. The difficulty came in choosing between Riverside and East Allegheny for the 4th seed. I opted for Riverside because they played Neshannock closer (7 points) than East Allegheny (28 points). Depending on how much the WPIAL cares about overall records, they could opt to seed Laurel (7-3 overall) ahead of CWNC (5-4 overall) despite CWNC’s head-to-head win. Given that four teams from the Midwestern Conference had to play road games, it was almost impossible to avoid a conference re-match while staying close to true seeds. Objectively, Beth-Center should probably be the lowest-seeded team in 2A but they were shuffled up to 14 to avoid a matchup between Neshannock and one of their conference opponents (Freedom or South Side Beaver).
Class 1A
1. Clairton (7-0, 9-0) vs 16. Avella (2-5, 2-8)
8. Fort Cherry (6-1, 8-1) vs 9. Sto-Rox (5-3, 6-4)
4. Northgate (7-1, 8-1) vs 13. Springdale (3-4, 5-5)
5. Bishop Canevin (5-2, 7-2) vs 12. Shenango (4-4, 4-5)
2. Rochester (8-0, 9-0) vs 15. Riverview (2-5, 3-6)
7. Carmichaels (7-0, 7-2) vs 10. Imani Christian (3-4, 4-5)
3. Jeannette (6-1, 9-1) vs 14. Mapletown (4-3 , 5-5)
6. OLSH (6-2, 7-2) vs 11. California (5-2, 6-4)
As with 2A, the top 3 seeds were easy choices. Rochester as undefeated Conference Champion gets a slight edge over Jeannette for the #2 seed while the Jayhawks get the third spot to stay on the opposite half of the bracket from Clairton. Tri-County South Champion Carmichaels lost head-to-head games against the third place teams from the other conferences (Bishop Canevin by 21 and OLSH by 17). Therefore, I dropped the Mighty Mikes behind the third place teams to the #7 seed. Imani beat California head-to-head so the Saints got the edge for the #10 seed despite a losing record overall.
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