The Saints are entering the 2017 offseason with just over $29,000,000 in available cap space. Heading into a make or break year, expect the Saints to stretch every penny in an effort to make at least one more Super Bowl run. Part of this process will include cutting players with contracts that do not match their production. Depending on contract circumstance, some players may be preferably post-June cuts as opposed to pre-June cuts.
Pre-June cuts will generally focus on players that, upon their release, free up additional cap space. The amount of cap space gained is weighed against the player’s value to the team. If the front office determines that the cap space gained by cutting a player is more beneficial than the player’s contribution to the team’s overall success, one can expect the player to be released or traded.
Post-June cuts will focus on players that will not make major contributions to the on-field product the upcoming season. Since the height of free agency has already passed, creating additional cap space is less of a concern.
Another issue that must be taken into account when cutting players is the amount of guaranties left on their contracts. Historically, the Saints have been notorious for releasing or trading players with an abundance of remaining guaranties. This was made obvious by their league leading $50,000,000 in dead money during the 2016 season. For those who don’t know, “dead money” is the money being paid to players whom are no longer on the roster. In 2016, this included some well-known players such as Junior Galette ($12,100,000), Keenan Lewis ($6,350,000), Jahri Evans ($5,100,000), CJ Spiller ($4,500,000) and Brandon Browner ($4,050,000). Fortunately, dead money heading into the 2017 offseason will be a much more manageable $9,000,000.
Overall, there are not many obvious cuts coming up this season. There are certainly an assortment of players not living up to their contracts but not many that would financially benefit the team by being pre-June 1st cuts. With that said, let’s examine some of the players that could be cut this offseason and the reasons that ultimately led them down the path to unemployment.
Potential Cuts (In no particular order)
Stephone Anthony – Linebacker
Designated Cut Date: Post-June 1st
Savings: $0
Dead: $2,108,651
This is a cut that seems very unlikely. After a promising rookie year, Anthony had a major sophomore slump. He lost his starting job to a player that was released midseason and Anthony never regained a major role on defense the remainder of the season. That’s not to say that Anthony is without talent. He is an extremely athletic linebacker that can chase and tackle. On defense, his biggest issues are in diagnosing plays and pass coverage. However, his lack of a role on special teams may be an even greater threat to him securing a roster spot. If Anthony doesn’t show improvement, he could very well be cut, regardless of the guaranteed money remaining on his contract. If the Saints can get their hands on a quality linebackers’ coach, I see Anthony redeeming himself and maybe not starting but being a solid contributor on defense and special teams.
Chances of Being Cut: 20%
Dannell Ellerbe – Linebacker/Edge Defender
Designated Cut Date: Pre-June 1st
Savings: $2,500,000
Dead: $700,000
While being cut is definitely a possibility for Ellerbe, I think a restructuring is more likely. When healthy, Ellerbe is one of the Saints’ most productive linebackers. The problem is, he is NEVER healthy and the team may ultimately decide to move on. His on field play was very positive both against the run and in coverage. Perhaps his greatest contribution was his ability to rush the quarterback as a stand-up linebacker or with his hand in the dirt as a defensive end. Despite playing in only 9 games, Ellerbe still managed 4 sacks and 8 QB hits. In the end, I believe the Saints will decide against cutting Ellerbe and give him another season to prove he can be a constant dependable presence on defense.
Chances of Being Cut: 50%
Jairus Byrd – Safety
Designated Cut Date: Post-June 1st
Savings: $8,300,000
Dead: $3,400,000
Byrd contract will keep him on the roster past the June 1st deadline because it is simply not financially feasible to release him before then. Byrd’s play has been very uninspiring since his signing but he did improve this past season. He was solid against the run and in coverage after struggling in both regards his first season with the team. Unless his physically capabilities drastically deteriorate before or during training camp, I would expect him to make the squad. Although his contract does not match his play, the benefits of keeping him far outweigh the benefits of cutting him.
Chances of Being Cut: 25%
Luke McCown – Quarterback
Designated Cut Date: Pre-June 1st
Savings: $1,500,000
Dead: $250,000
Cutting Luke would certainly be unexpected. He knows the offense and is tied at the hip with Brees. With that said, Luke is an older backup and the Saints may have a young prospect in mind to replace him. If he is declared a pre-June 1st cut, it is safe to assume the Saints are confident in Grayson’s ability to run the offense (Unlikely). I find it hard to imagine a scenario where they cut McCown with the idea of drafting a quarterback simply because the draft is far too unpredictable. In all likelihood, McCown will be back to backup Brees in what’s looking like an all-or-nothing kind of season.
Chances of Being Cut: 15%
Michael Hoomanawanui – Tight End
Designated Cut Date: Pre-June 1st
Savings: $1,266,666
Dead: $666,667
Hoomanawanui is a solid tight end that can also line up as a fullback. The ex-patriot is the Saints’ best run blocking tight end and when healthy, plays an important role on offense. However, with Josh Hill continued development as a run blocker and John Phillips possibly returning to the team, Hoomanawanui may be declared expendable. His injury history will also be working against him. If he can prove he’s completely recovered from his injury, it is a high probability he retains his role with the team and avoids being cut.
Chances of Being Cut: 40%
Marcus Murphy – Running Back / Returner
Designated Cut Date: Post-June 1st
Savings: $615,000
Dead: $17,322
Of all the players on this list, Murphy’s chances of being cut are the highest. He is a returner / backup running back that does not have the trust of the coaches due to his ball security issues. However, he is an explosive returner and has value as a receiving option out of the backfield. Although the Saints are desperate for a spark in the return game, it is easy to see them cutting ties with Murphy. As it is now, he is dead weight on the roster that could use his roster spot for valuable depth. If he can prove his ball security issues are behind him and display the same kind of spark as a returner that we’ve witnessed in the past, he has a solid chance of making the roster but I wouldn’t necessarily count on it.
Chances of Being Cut: 75%
Paul Kruger – Defensive End
Designated Cut Date: Post-June 1st
Savings: $0
Dead: $700,000
After a solid couple seasons with the Browns, Kruger’s signing was greeted with plenty of optimism. It didn’t take long for that optimism to fade. Although playing in 15 of 16 games, he only managed 1.5 sacks on the season. On top of that, he was a liability against the run. Due to the structure of his contract, there is not much to gain by declaring Kruger a pre-June 1st cut. The Saints will likely sign and/or draft some additional defensive end talent this offseason. Kruger will need to beat out those newcomers to have any chance of maintaining a roster spot.
Chances of Being Cut: 60%
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