2023 WGC-Dell Match Play: Round Robin Matchups, Odds, Expert Picks, & Best Bets


As the sports world prepares for another exciting weekend of bracket action as March Madness preps for the Sweet Sixteen this weekend, another bracket-style tournament is set to begin Thursday.

That’s right, it’s the WGC-Dell Match Play event on the PGA Tour. But unfortunately for now, it seems like it will be the last match play for quite some time as the PGA recently announced there will be no match play event in 2024. Many have called for a match-play style tournament to determine the Fed Ex Cup champion, and it remains to be seen if golf fans will get something like that. But for now, this is the only match-play event we’ll see at the highest level of golf outside of the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup.

Scheffler Looks To Defend His Crown

Scottie Scheffler, who was seeded fifth overall, emerged as the winner of last year’s tournament. In fact, this marks the fifth time in the last eight editions of the tournament that a player ranked eighth or better has come out on top. Additionally, half of the 16 highest-seeded players advanced beyond the group stage and into the weekend, a success rate that seems almost predictable compared to the unpredictability of March Madness brackets.

Let’s take a look at each of the groups in the 1st round which is a round-robin format, and see who we like to emerge out of each group into the round of 16.

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Odds To Win The 2023 WGC-Dell Matchplay

Scottie Scheffler +700
Jon Rahm +1000
Rory McIlroy +1200
Patrick Cantlay +1500
Max Homa +1600
Collin Morikawa +1900
Jordan Spieth +2000
Viktor Hovland +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Jason Day +2400
Tyrrell Hatton +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Will Zalatoris +2900
Sungjae Im +3100
Tom Kim +3100
Cameron Young +3400
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3700
Tommy Fleetwood +3700
Corey Conners +4200
Sam Burns +4500
Shane Lowry +4800
Keegan Bradley +4800
Hideki Matsuyama +4800
Rickie Fowler +5500
Matt Kuchar +6000
Keith Mitchell +6000
Sahith Theegala +6500
Min Woo Lee +6500
Si Woo Kim +6500
Billy Horschel +6500
Tom Hoge +6500
Chris Kirk +6500
Kevin Kisner +6500
Adam Scott +8000
Alex Noren +8000
Seamus Power +8000
Russell Henley +8500
Harris English +9500
Adam Hadwin +9500
Brian Harman +9500
Kurt Kitayama +9500
Justin Suh +9500
Victor Perez +9500
Taylor Montgomery +10000
Davis Riley +10000
Ryan Fox +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Maverick McNealy +11000
Adam Svensson +11000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12000
Cameron Davis +12000
Aaron Wise +12000
Nick Taylor +14000
K.H. Lee +14000
Adrian Meronk +14000
Lucas Herbert +14000
J.T. Poston +16000
Sepp Straka +16000
MacKenzie Hughes +17000
Ben Griffin +17000
Scott Stallings +19000
J.J. Spaun +21000
Andrew Putnam +21000
Davis Thompson +25000

WGC Round Robin Matchups

*Groups listed in bracket format

*Seeds listed highest to lowest

Group 1

  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Tom Kim
  • Alex Noren
  • Davis Riley

Scottie Scheffler is the No. 1 Seed and that makes this a really tough draw for fan favorite and rising star Tom Kim. Davis Riley was also hoping to play spoiler this weekend, but against the hottest golfer on the planet for the last year and a half, this seems like a tough hill to climb.

The Pick: Scottie Scheffler

Group 16

  • Sungjae Im
  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • J.T. Poston
  • Maverick McNealy

Sungjae Im is the favorite here and rightfully so, he’s a solid 4-4 in the Dell Match Play and is playing some solid golf. But I have to go with Tommy Fleetwood. He’s coming off a great weekend at Copperhead where he finished T3 at the Valspar Championship. I like him in this group.

The Pick: Tommy Fleetwood

Group 8

  • Viktor Hovland
  • Chris Kirk
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Matt Kuchar

Another tough group as Kirk and Kim have already won on the PGA tour this year. And Kuchar is an old vet who holds an impressive 35-18-5 record at the Dell Match Play. But you just can’t pick against Hovland here. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t emerge from this group.

The Pick: Viktor Hovland

Group 9

  • Collin Morikawa
  • Jason Day
  • Adam Svensson
  • Victor Perez

Some might label this the “Group of Death” as they often do in the World Cup. Morikawa is clearly one of the best players in the world. But Jason Day is a two-time winner of this event and has looked excellent lately. Victor Perez finished fourth just last year in this event and the young Canadian Adam Svensson has been on the leaderboard for a large part of 2023. While I’d love to take Jason Day here, I can’t pick against Morikawa.

The Pick: Colin Morikawa

Group 4

  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Brian Harman
  • K.H. Lee
  • Nick Taylor

There is no argument that Patrick Cantlay is the most talented golfer in the group. But he’s 0 for 4 in getting past the group stage in this event. I’m going to go with the left Brian Harman who I also like as a dark horse at The Masters in a few weeks. Both this course and Augusta are friendly to lefties.

The Pick: Brian Harman

Group 13

  • Sam Burns
  • Seamus Power
  • Adam Scott
  • Adam Hadwin

Sam Burns was unable to defend his title at the Valspar Championship last week but he still had a heck of a showing. Burns finished sixth last week and looked in excellent form. He’s the only option in this group for me.

The Pick: Sam Burns

Group 5

  • Max Homa
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Kevin Kisner
  • Justin Suh

If Group 9 isn’t the “Group of Death”, then this group certainly is. Kisner has been excellent in 2023, Homa is trying to throw his name in the Scheffler and Rahm convo, and Matsuyama is capable of flipping a switch at any time. But I have to go with Max Homa here.

The Pick: Max Homa

Group 12

  • Jordan Spieth
  • Shane Lowry
  • Taylor Montgomery
  • Mackenzie Hughes

I love this group. They’re all absurd from 100 and in and are some of the best short-game players on tour. Spieth feels like his game is as good as it’s been in quite some time. Lowry is a killer in match play and the rookie Montgomery has shown that he’s fearless early in this 2023 season. The reality is I could choose any of these guys and feel good about it. Hughes is my favorite low seed in the round-robin stage. And I’d love to take a flyer on the young rookie. But I’m going to go with Spieth here. I think he can emerge from this tough group.

The Pick: Jordan Spieth

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