25-35 saves for Pineiro?

You probably noticed that Fire Brand has something new – polls. The first poll is now closed, and the question was “How many games will Joel Pineiro save?”
The results are:
25-35, but be an average closer
39% of all votes
Maybe ten, because he’ll flame out
28% of all votes
None, he won’t start as a closer
23% of all votes
Be one of the better closers in the game
10% of all votes
In a nutshell, we’re not expecting much out of Pineiro. I voted for “25-35, but be an average closer” which actually won the vote (though by not much, and lost if you combine the “maybe ten” and “none” votess) because that’s essentially what will happen if Pineiro pitches as a closer the entire season, despite the ERA. In 2004, a pitcher saved 35 games while pitching a 7.11 ERA. That pitcher is Shawn Chacon. It just goes to show you how easy saves are to come by. He blew nine of those saves, giving him a 80 percent success rate and a SIP of 0.55.
The majority of the people feel that Pineiro can be an average closer and save 25-35 games. There were four people tied with 24 saves in 2006 (nobody had 25). They were: Takashi Saito of the Dodgers, Mike Gonzalez of the Pirates, Derrick Turnbow of the Brewers and Ryan Dempster of the Cubs. Their ERA’s in order: 2.07, 2.17, 6.87, 4.80. The next person with less than 30 saves was Chad Cordero, who finished with a 3.19 ERA. Jonathan Papelbon finished with exactly 35 saves and a 0.92 ERA. In between Papelbon and Cordero (the list is here) were eight people, and here’s how their ERAs finished from Papelbon to Cordero: 3.34, 1.80, 2.67, 3.55, 2.73, 5.28 (Brad Lidge), 2.11, 3.44.
The highest ERA belonged to Derrick Turnbow, who clearly lost his job. The next highest ERA was Brad Lidge, who temporarily lost his job before regaining it. You then have Dempster, who closed all year but is not exactly held in the highest esteem of Cubs fans. He did, nonetheless, notch 24 saves. The next highest ERA belonged to Jason Isringhausen and Brian Fuentes. The last person over 3.00 was Tom Gordon.
Essentially, we’re looking for Joel Pineiro to be Jason Isringhausen – the 2006 Isringhausen, not the 2001-2005 Isringhausen. If Pineiro can pull up 35 saves with an ERA around 3.50, I’ll be happy. For the record, Isringhausen blew four saves and went 4-8.
Eric Karabell penned a lengthy article on the Pineiro fantasy implications the other day. It’s Insider only, but here are a few juicy pieces:

Pineiro does throw hard, he’s still relatively young (only 28), and even if there was room for him in the rotation, does he deserve the chance? He’s failed as a starter the last two seasons, and in a sweet pitcher’s park and sans pressure. You know who else couldn’t hack it every fifth day in nice ballparks? Eric Gagne couldn’t stick in the Dodgers’ top five, and was moved to the bullpen by necessity, because of health and the fact he was out of chances to start. Joe Nathan was hardly a giant when the Giants asked him to start. He stunk. Then he had one terrific middle relief season there and got thrown into the Francisco Liriano-Boof Bonser-A.J. Pierzynski deal and has been arguably baseball’s best closer since then. Nobody thought moving these guys to the ninth inning would make them Cy Young caliber.

There is no blueprint for what a closer needs to save games, other than, obviously and in general, they need the ball with a lead of three runs or fewer in the ninth inning. Don’t even look at Pineiro’s 2006 stats. They tell us little. I looked, of course, and saw that his ERA as a starter was two runs higher than it was in relief, and that his strikeout rate was solid when moved to the bullpen. Batters hit only .213 off him when he was relieving, though it’s a small sample size. But nothing has truly prepared this guy to close. Pitching in the sixth inning while losing 90 games in Seattle is not the same as pitching in the ninth inning at Fenway or Yankee Stadium, with a man on base, tens of thousands of angry, demanding fans yelling at you and someone like Derek Jeter at the plate. There’s pressure. Not everyone can close, even those with a great arm and nasty stuff. If that was the case, Kyle Farnsworth might be Lee Smith. He’s not. Joe Borowski has multiple big save seasons. This is about opportunity.

Pineiro was once a very highly regarded pitcher, and he won 16 games in 2003 with a 3.78 ERA and 151 strikeouts. His 2004 was cut short by an elbow injury, and his shoulder was hurt early in 2005. Since then he’s been among the most hittable pitchers in the game, and with a low strikeout rate. But when Pineiro went to the bullpen last year, he was better. In his words, “it was something where I came in and gave it all I had for one inning. … I dropped down my arm angle a little bit, the ball had more movement. I was very excited about it.” Kudos to the Sox for doing their homework.

Does this make me excited? No. It doesn’t at all. It does ease my concerns a bit. Even if Pineiro is average, won’t that help us? Not only have we not had many “average” relievers in a while, but Pineiro being “average” will allow someone else to step in if we can find an improvement, as Tristan Cockcroft notes on that page:

If he starts slowly, I expect another trade like the one for Byung-Hyun Kim in 2003. Or, perhaps Craig Hansen starts strong in a setup role and gets promoted. Why isn’t that being called as likely a possibility as Pineiro succeeding in the closer spot?

Why isn’t it, indeed. A trade is likely. Hansen or Manny Delcarmen moving into the slot is likely.
The only thing guaranteed right now is that Pineiro has the inside track to closing. If he bombs, we switch him out immediately. We’re not beholden to a guy not expected to succeed who is in his first year of relieving. Even the organization isn’t turning cartwheels. If he’s average, we can either leave him there or easily justify removing him from the spot. If he excels, great.
I simply don’t see anything to lose here. I do not see Pineiro as another Rudy Seanez. If Pineiro bombs, he will not continue getting chances.
In other news, Jim Rice didn’t make the Hall of Fame. I’m hearing that now 2008 is his best year! He won’t have Ripken or Gwynn to contend with, people will be upset over Bonds breaking the record, casting even more positive light on Rice, and he’ll be in his last gasps to get elected by the writers … I’ll believe it when I see it.
J.D. Drew’s contract apparently will be done soon. Really? It was going to be done soon on November 29th.
A new poll up there, folks. Vote on it! Interesting question, too. When will Jacoby Ellsbury make his major league debut? Think about it.