I've done this for the last few years. It is a piece in which I make 20 predictions and then check to see how I did at the end of the season. It is a lot of fun to see what kind of an "expert" I am with this stuff. So, let's get to it…
1) How many games will the Bills win? 4. Yes, this is a pretty crappy number, but realistically this isn't a good football team. I just think they have too many new parts to their game with a rookie QB, coach and offensive coordinator. Factor in their secondary being a tire fire and how the team has so many unproven parts, and you have a recipe for a disaster. The Bills are one of the youngest teams in the NFL and when Stevie Johnson is your 4th longest tenured player, it should tell you something about how much transition is going on here. I've said this before, if EJ Manuel or a few younger guys show flashes of being legit down the road, that's what you have to take in order for a 4-12 season to be a success. Pretty much what Carolina did during Cam Newton's rookie year.
2 Who will the Bills beat? Jets (Twice), Dolphins, and the Jags. Although the Bills are only facing four teams with an above .500 record from last year, I just don't see them beating decent teams. Teams like the Panthers, Chiefs, Steelers, and Saints all seem to be on the rebound or are on the cusp of becoming good. Yes, I have the Bills sweeping the Jets, mainly because they are way worse. Also, I happen to be going to the game at Met Life Stadium, so, I'm pleading for a win there. I'm also doing my yearly "We always seem to split games against Miami" prediction. As for the Jags, they don't seem to have made much improvement this offseason besides new uniforms and a new coach.
3) Will Stevie Johnson have over 70 catches? No. I have a bad feeling about Stevie this year. I just think having a rookie QB and a inexperienced WR cast around him is going to hurt him. You can usually check Stevie at 75-80 catches. But consider this…Of the last 15 rookie QBs to start at least 10 games (Since 2007), only Reggie Wayne, Brian Hartline, Danny Amendola, Roddy White, and Steve Smith caught more than 70 passes. As much as people talk about how good RGIII, Wilson and Flacco were as rookies, none of their WRs had over 70 catches. Maybe Stevie can be what Hartline was for Miami last year, but I just think EJ is more of a project than most folks are letting on. I think Stevie gets 65 catches.
4) Will CJ Spiller have over 1,500 yards rushing? No. This is a tough one. But you just have to look at it this way..1,500 yards is a very hard accomplishment. Since 2008, that feat has only been accomplished 8 times. So, before we start writing pieces about CJ getting 2,000 yards (See: Bills.com), just realize that just getting over 1,500 yards is a major accomplishment. So, why don't I see this happening? Fred Jackson is one option. I know that some don't wanna see him hit the field, but I don't think the Bills are going to let him just waste away on the sidelines. Of the 8 times a RB went over 1,500 yards, only Carolina with De'Angelo Williams (1,500) and Jonathan Stewart (800) had a running back by committee approach. Everyone else was solo.
Another reason has to do with teams loading up in the box and not respecting the Bills ability to throw. Lastly, and this is the biggest one..The defense. It is football 101 to know that if you can't stop opposing offenses, your offense is going to have to throw more because they will be from behind. In the last three years, Maurice Jones-Drew and Adrian Peterson went over 1,500 yards without any sort of consistent QB play. Why? Because their defenses were ranked 11th and 13th in points given up. The Bills would have to be in that 10-15 range IMO to get CJ to 1,500. Hey, 1,450 or so, isn't a bad year.
5) Who will be the Bills rookie of the year? Kiko Alonso. Yeah, I'm going a bit against the grain with this one. I just think rookie LBs who are picked within the first two rounds and are penciled in to start, are on the high rise when it comes to rookie accolades. Consider that since 2000, 10 defensive rookie of the year award winners were LBs. Six of them weren't your traditionally OLB who would get tons of sacks either. They were guys who would get you a shit load of tackles. I think the quality of the DL in front of Alonso will pay huge dividends for him.
6) Will EJ Manuel pass for over 20TDs? No. From 2002-2010, no rookie QB threw for over 20TDs in a season. In the last two seasons, that number went to five. I'm going with the 2000s instead of the latest trend. I don't know what EJ's numbers will be, but I just see more of a project guy than someone who will put up 20-25TDs. I think 17TDs and 15 Picks are doable.
7) Who will be the Bills 2nd leading receiver? CJ Spiller. I've gone back and forth on this one. It came down to CJ or Robert Woods. Woods is coming from a pro style offense where he looks to be your prototypical NFL receiver. Even if you look at Marrone's time at Syracuse, most of the WRs got in on the passing game rather than backs catching the ball out of the backfield. However, I think with CJ Spiller being your best offensive player and someone who can catch the ball out of the backfield, makes it a bigger factor. Plus, rookie QBs are always known for check downs which should help make Spiller a top PPR player in fantasy leagues everywhere.
8) Will the Bills give up more than 30 sacks? No. That was the number of sacks the Bills gave up last year. While we can beat down Chan Gailey until he's blue in the face, one of the best things he did while being with the Bills was the way he fixed the offensive line. Yes, I'm putting his system in the forefront of rebuilding the line rather than the players. It was quite simple: Quick passes, means fewer sacks. That was Gailey's MO. Now with Marrone here, he's bringing in a variation of the west coast offense, which any football fan knows that getting the ball fast is their bread and butter. In terms of systems, last year under Marrone, Ryan Nassib only got sacked once every 29 times. That's a hell of a ratio. As for EJ Manuel, he was sacked once every 15 drop backs, which is still very good. Lastly, and I think this is the more important stat, I think the Bills are gonna run the ball a hell of a lot more than they passed the last few years. As document on here before, the Orangemen had almost a 50/50 run/pass ratio over the last two seasons.
9) Which game will I be the most drunk at? New England at Buffalo. I'm normally not the type of fan to get wasted during games. Most of it has to do with me wanting to remember the game and not the hangover. However, I'm going to the home opener for the first time since 2000. Over the last 11 years since I've been gone from Buffalo, I normally attend the season finale for like 10 bucks and get to freeze my ass off while watching Brian Brohm take on Jim Sorgi. It wasn't fun. I couldn't really drink much because it was just too damn cold out. The weather should be great for this one, the team isn't out of playoff contention, and we won't have to watch a backup QB play.
10) What will be the most exciting game this season? New England/Buffalo. As badly as the Pats have crushed the Bills dreams over the last 12 years, you can always count on at least 1 game being the most exciting between them. The Bills finished 4-12 and lost 38-30 against NE. The Bills were a TD pass away from upsetting the Pats last year in New England. There's the Holcomb/Bruschi Sunday night game. The McKelvin fumble game. Yes, most of these games turn out like crap for us, but there's always one game against these guys that turns out to be a highlight reel type of game for the fans. I'm going with that.
11) Will Mario Williams get over 10.5 sacks? No. I've gone over in great details previously about how Mario Williams is a very streaky player. Sure, we can easily blame the injury to his wrist last for his subpar 1st half, but I just think it was more about his streaky play than a guy battling injuries. Now, we all know by now what Pettine plans on doing. It is pretty much attack, attack, attack, attack. However, QB pressures are obviously different from sacks. And that's what people have to realize. From 2009-2013, the Jets never had a player get more than 10 sacks in a season. In fact, only one player had 8 sacks on that team. As for Mario, he's only eclipsed 10.5 sacks or more, twice. I'm thinking he gets around 8-10. No more.
12) Who will be 2nd on the team in sacks? Manny Lawson. No, this isn't a joke. Really, it isn't. While a lot of folks want to make a big deal about the front four or the hybrid, I think what most have to realize that under Pettine, the Jets got a majority of their sacks from OLBs, not from their DEs or DTs. Now, they still played the hybrid and used a lot of different fronts, mostly 3-4, but I think if you are standing up as an OLB, you have a great shot to get to the QB in this system. So, I'm picking Lawson, who actually has the 2nd most sacks for a season on the Bills next to Mario Williams (6.5 in 2009). If my theory dies, look for Marcell Dareus to get the title.
13) What will be the worst game this year? Atlanta/Buffalo. Normally, I'd probably hang this up on the classic Thursday night tilt between the Browns and Bills, which I'm willing to be bet we'll get a ton of snark about how the NFL Network would be better served to air reruns of the Chicago Bears 1957 season. However, I think when you factor in this game being in Toronto and the Falcons arguably being the best team on the Bills schedule, to quote Star Wars…"I have a bad feeling about this." On a sidenote, the Bills are 1-4 in Toronto games and have been outscored 107 to 75 and hold a 1-4 record. Something tells me that we won't be closing the gap on that score after this one.
14) Which Bills will make the Pro Bowl? CJ Spiller. Yeah, that's what I got. I just think that everyone knows about Spiller now, especially since Fantasy football nuts know everything about him. Remember at this time last year, he was the 2nd guy behind Fred. I think fans will start stuffing the ballot for him. As for guys like Byrd and Kyle Williams? I think with the defense being so new, there will be some growing pains for them.
15) Who will be the fans whipping boy this year? Leodis McKelvin. You can already cue up every wise ass on Twitter tweeting out "There's our 5-million dollar CB!" when McKelvin gets burned. There aren't many people who were on board with this signing to begin with, especially since it seems like he'll be our #1 CB until Stephon Gilmore gets better. It is going to be ugly this year for Leodis.
16) Who will be the most improved player? Marcell Dareus. I've written about how he went through a ton of crap last year. Overall, he went through a pretty bad season, on and off of it. This is the magical 3rd year for Dareus and I think the time is now that he really puts it into 5th gear. I see talent there as he was ranked 11th in QB hits and 4th in sacks for defensive tackles. However, he was only ranked 37th in tackles for losses at the position. That stat needs to go up. DTs main objective is to disrupt the line of scrimmage to get their LBs freed up to make tackles and to make plays stopping the run. I'm just picking Dareus because the time is now for him.
17) How many TDs will Fred Jackson have? 7. That may seem like a lot, but there have been reports that Jackson has beefed up a bit this offseason. I think it would only make sense to use Jackson in goal line situations over Spiller. He's just a tougher runner between the tackles.
18) Who will lead the Bills in INTs? Leodis McKelvin. WHAT?! How could you put Leodis on such a fan pleasing stat when you have him as the scapegoat? Simple: He's going to be the guy the opposition will pick on most. Also, if you look at the Jets' defense over the years, their CBs are the ones who get the picks, not their safeties. Since 2009, the Jets CBs have accounted for 35 INTs while their safeties have accounted for just 14. In fact, their LBs have almost as many picks as their safeties do. So, why is that the case? A lot of it has to do with their safeties playing close to the line of scrimmage and in the box. I would have voted for Gilmore here if he didn't get hurt. So, I'm going with the 2nd CB. BTW, during Pettine's years, the Jets ranked 24th, 11th, 25th and 13th in picks. Surprisingly, the Bills were better in that category 3 out of 4 years. The Jets didn't get picks. They got tons of pressure, but the majority of their stellar play doesn't appear in the box score.
19) Who will be the Bills biggest surprise? Alex Carrington. Alright, I'm gonna drink the Kool-Aid for this one. A lot of folks seem to be high on Carrington because when he gets on the field, he actually makes plays. According to Advanced Stats, he had the 17th most tackles for losses (7) by DTs. That's better than Dareus and only 2 behind Kyle Williams. Anyways, he's penciled in to start this year, so, you have to hope he'll make more plays when given more opportunities.
20) Will Goodwin, Graham and Woods have over 110 catches? No. Do the math and that's about 36 catches for each guy. I had it in my WR football preview that the average catches for rookies drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round are 22 and 17 over the last decade. Obviously, some of those guys probably couldn't get on the field because of guys being ahead of them or not being asked to start. I think Woods will get 40-45 grabs, Graham will get 35 and I'm not expecting much from Goodwin. I think he'll be lucky to break 20, as I think he's still raw to begin with.
Final word: Yeah, I'm not exactly predicting a watershed year for the Bills. I actually really struggled to get them to 4 wins. This year feels a lot like 2010 and 2001. Just a complete overhaul on personnel and coaches with some guys who can play. I've said it before, the success of a rebuilding year is all about young individuals making plays and not the actual record.
In 2010, the Bills finished 4-12, but guys like Stevie Johnson and Kyle Williams came into their own. They need a few of those younger guys to kick the door down this year. EJ, Alonso, Gilmore and Dareus taking the next step would be a great start to this regime's takeover.
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