3 Keys to Success for Andrew McCutchen in the 2nd Half

Andrew McCutchen started to get hot at the end of the first half of the season. What does he need to do to continue to stay hot in the second half?

The Pirates are barely above .500, and part of the reason the team hasn’t been more successful is the struggles of Andrew McCutchen in the first half of the year. He’s barely been a replacement level player so far, and even Matt Joyce is outperforming him from the bench.

But all hope is not lost. McCutchen has shown signs of turning around, most notably right as the first half ended. In July, he’s batting .314/.375/.543, the best line he’s had in a month so far this season. McCutchen returning to All-Star form is key to the Pirates making a run at the postseason this year. Fortunately, he’s more than capable of doing so.

Here are three keys to McCutchen finding success in the second half of the season.

1) Strike out less

This season, McCutchen has been striking out at a 24.7% clip, by far the highest rate of his career. To put this in perspective, he’s already struck out more this year than he did in his entire first full season in the majors, and the next highest rate of his career was 19.6% in 2012. A higher strikeout rate would be more acceptable if he was adding power, but he’s only on pace for 26 home runs, which is high, but not even the most he’s had in a season in his career. For a comparison, Mike Trout led the American League in strikeouts in 2014, but he also knocked in a career-high 111 runs to go with 36 home runs. That’s a valid trade-off.

If McCutchen can cut down on his strikeouts, it means he’s being more patient at the plate and will be seeing the ball better. This will lead to more walks and better contact. Contact has a chance of creating a positive play; a strikeout doesn’t. A lower strikeout rate can only lead to good things for the former MVP.

2) Walk more

This goes hand-in-hand with striking out less, but it’s valid nonetheless. We know McCutchen is striking out at a career-high rate, but he’s also walking at a career-low rate of just 8.8%. The next lowest rate of his career was 10.4% in 2012. And his issue doesn’t necessarily have to do with seeing more pitches, as he’s seeing 4.05 pitches per plate appearance, which is above his career rate of 4.01. It does, however, have to do with the counts he finds himself in. He’s been in an 0-1 count 31 more times than a 1-0 count, and he has just a .243 on-base percentage after an 0-1 count. He’s also registered just five at-bats on 3-0 counts all season long, and only 20 at-bats on 3-1 counts.

What does this mean? McCutchen isn’t working counts, and he’s not putting himself in a position to get walks. In general, three-ball counts work out well for hitters. For example, this year, McCutchen is 5-5 on 3-0 counts, and is batting .400 on 3-1 counts. Obviously McCutchen can’t dictate where a pitcher pitches to him. But maybe by being selective about the pitches he swings at, McCutchen will be find himself deeper in counts and will be able to take advantage of getting on base more often.

3) Get the signature Cutch swing back

When McCutchen was on the rise to super-stardom, what often separated him from the other star players in the game was his swing. He always had one of the fastest swings in the game, and it allowed him to generate power and line drives despite being smaller compared to the traditional power hitter.

But this season, his hard-hit rate is at just 33.5%, the lowest rate of his career outside of his rookie season. McCutchen is supposed to be in his prime, and he’s supposed to be building power up to this point. But his hard-hit ball rate has declined each of the past two seasons. He could be battling injuries, which seems more likely than him regressing. But needless to say, hitting the ball harder will lead to more home runs, and more extra-base hits than singles.

How does he do this? For one, he can recognize fastballs better and jump on them. After all, McCutchen’s always been a great fastball hitter. He could also take advantage of balls in the zone better, which he should receive a decent amount of considering he has the likes of Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, or David Freese likely batting behind him, each of whom is good protection.

These three points seem obvious to us on the outside. But if Andrew McCutchen is able to improve even slightly in each of these areas, he could reap massive rewards in the second half of the season.

Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography

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