300=W?

Manning is 8-0 throwing for 300 this year.  That’s helping 300 yard passers win more than ever.

Up until last year, teams that had a passer reach 300 yards won about half the time. The numbers for 100 yard rushers have held steadily north of 70%. Last year’s mark of 0.625 was the highest since 1962 (NFL), when passers went 15-5-1 when throwing for 300 yards, and this year’s percentage is exceeding last year. Last year, the 47 games won by teams with a 300 yard passer were the most ever. And so far this year, we are at 41, and every team still has seven games left. To put that in historical perspective, from 1970-1977, quarterbacks who threw for 300 yards won a total 45 games, over 8 seasons. We are almost there in nine weeks.

Weather should slow that pace down, but judging by the ratios from the last seven years (on average, there were forty-three 300 yard games from 2002-2008 through game 9), we are looking at somewhere in the range of ninety-eight 300 yard passing games in 2009. That would be the highest total ever. The previous high (90) was in 1995, the expansion year when Carolina and Jacksonville joined. That total dropped immediately to 50 the next year, so it was a freak anomaly partially aided by the expansion dilution year. The two other spikes in the percentage of 300 yard games were also directly attributable to either profound rule changes or massive expansion. The rule changes in 1978 to assist the passing game resulted in a four-fold increase in 300 yard games within a few years. The formation of the AFL and expansion from 12 to 22 professional teams led to a spike in high passing yardage games in the NFL from 1961 to 1963.