40-Year Check: Florida State and Alabama

Since the last 40-year comparison between Florida State and Ohio State was so well received, some Noled Out readers submitted their ideas for the next team to compare to the ‘Noles over the previous time spans.

One Twitter user mentioned the Alabama Crimson Tide, yet another program that is regarded as a blue blood returned to prominence. The recent dynasty run by Nick Saban and his players has been nothing short of spectacular, and if the results continue to pile up, it could rival the 1990’s FSU streak. The teams are slated to match up in a 2017 contest in Atlanta that could very well feature both in the top 10.

Both schools have some widespread hate surrounding them that is largely due to their successes on the field. Some will contest that, but for the large part, it is true. The teams with the most wins get the most hate. After looking at the numbers for a 10-year, 25-year, and 40-year outlook, it’s pretty clear why people don’t like them with the vast number of achievements each team is able to claim.

The same criteria will be used, though this particular comparison has some problems that the previous one didn’t. Those will be addressed when they arise and will be dealt with in a fair manner. The question one has to ask themselves before reading on is this: If you were asked “Who is the better program over the last 10/25/40 years” which would you choose?

10-Year Outlook

Much like the Ohio State comparison, Alabama has a very clear lead in the past decade over FSU. Nick Saban’s first season at Alabama in 2007 would signal the last time the Crimson Tide had fewer than 10 wins in a single season. Their recent results and projected successes would make a good argument that Alabama has created a dynasty rivaled only by teams like Oklahoma, Miami, and Florida State.

Alabama hasn’t had the best results the past two years in major bowl games with two Sugar Bowl losses, but that doesn’t take away from the dominance that occurred from 2009-2012. Three national championship games with three wins gives Alabama the clear edge in that category, and over the whole decade, it went to six major bowls while Florida State played in four.

The difference between records vs. ranked teams and record vs. top 10 teams follows similar lines to the previous outlook, and is yet another statistic that can be explained by Florida State’s resurgence since 2009. As an aside, Alabama’s opponents were also tougher, coming in with a winning percentage of .598 as opposed to FSU opponents with .573.

However, there is a big caveat that needs to be explained. From 2005 to 2014, FSU had 12 games vacated from the record; five in 2006 and seven in 2007. In the original match-up, FSU and Ohio State’s vacated games were left out because they had the same number of such instances. But for the Crimson Tide, this will be a problem for this time-frame and the next two.

They had 21 games vacated since 2005 (including all the wins from a 10-2 season) and these skew the results more than they did in Ohio State/FSU comparison. Alabama beat three ranked teams in the selected years, but they will be counted as losses in the record and therefore bring the percentage down.

For Florida State, there is only one similar win that will not count and that’s a 2007 upset of Boston College. The numbers in this category are still fairly reflective of reality. But it is something to keep note of in the coming sections, and the number gets bigger.

The only thing left needing explanation is Alabama’s much lower mark in record vs. top 10 teams. The gap gets bigger if Florida State’s win against the aforementioned 2007 Boston College team is adjusted into the record. After looking at the seasons individually, it does seem to suggest that Alabama has just not fared as well against teams ranked in the top 10.

This is most notable in the bowl games where three of those losses came in the three Sugar Bowls Nick Saban has coached Alabama in. However, Saban is also the reason that this number is much better than it was under the previous coach Mike Shula. Shula went 0-4 against top 10 teams while Saban has gone 8-11 against the same type of opponent.

The last three opponents with a top 10 ranking that faced Alabama have all been victorious, leaving some to wonder if Saban and his staff might be losing their touch. The Crimson Tide have not beat a top-10 team since Notre Dame in the national championship following the 2012 season.

25-Year Outlook

Florida State takes a clear lead once the dynasty of the 90’s is included into the time-frame. The Crimson Tide had a very up-and-down program throughout the 90’s, examples being a national championship in 1992 and falling all the way to 4-7 season by 1997. Because of the nature of their seasons, this means Florida State takes a clear lead in the outlook.

FSU played tougher teams (.602 percentage versus .592 percentage) and performed better against them than Alabama did. The Seminoles’ 15 major bowl game appearances tower over Alabama’s nine and their 8-7 record is also better than the Crimson Tide’s mark of 4-5. While the first half of the 1990’s were kind to Alabama with three 10-plus win seasons, the latter half saw them falter with records of 8-3, 4-7, and 7-5 in a 4-year span. Suffice to say, most Crimson Tide fans do not remember the last days of the Mike DuBose years with fondness.

As mentioned above, vacated/forfeited games yet again enter the foray. Alabama’s 1993 season had nine forfeited losses, meaning its official record is 1-12 even though the Tide went 9-3-1. Oddly enough, the only reason Alabama reached the SEC Championship was because division leader Auburn was ineligible for postseason play. The only record to get affected by this would be vs. ranked teams, because Alabama tied No. 11 Tennessee in that season. The change is too little at this point to make a big difference.

More to the point about Alabama’s volatile seasons: It had only one instance where it had consecutive seasons with double-digit wins (1991 and 1992). Compare this to Florida State, who didn’t have a single season with fewer than 10 wins in that time-frame until 2002. This could also explain why the Crimson Tide have a perfect record in national championships — when they’re good, they’re excellent. But when they’re not excellent, they’re not able to reach the championship game.

40-Year Outlook

Before one even discusses some of the numbers in this time-frame, there needs to be a clarification on what is meant by “National Championship Appearances”. The Bowl Coalition was obviously not formed until 1992 and even then, there was debate around the national championship games. Since the newest outlook goes from 1975 onward, clear cut national championships do not exist for a good chunk of the comparison.

The qualification is this: If a team had won its bowl game, would it have had a good chance of being named national champions? One relevant example would be the 1989 season where No. 7 Alabama faced No. 2 Miami in the Sugar Bowl to end the season. The Hurricanes would win and go on to be named the national champion, largely because No. 1 Colorado lost its bowl game to Notre Dame. Some teams ranked ahead of Alabama lost their bowl games, so it initially looks like Alabama could have been crowned champions if it had beat the Hurricanes. But instead, a couple of higher ranked teams (Florida State and Notre Dame) won bowls and thus made it impossible for the Crimson Tide to get any consideration. Therefore, it does not count as a national championship appearance.

While it won’t be dissected too much here, one of those national championship “wins” is the 1978 season where the AP Poll ranked Alabama No. 1 while the Coaches Poll selected USC instead. USC beat Alabama in the regular season and had a tougher schedule, but due to a variety of reasons, a split title was the result. The number won’t be subtracted, but keep in mind the type of issue being dealt with here.

With that discussion out of the way, the numbers are pretty much all in Florida State’s favor. The results against ranked and top-10 teams remain unmatched, though Alabama does have a fairly close bowl and overall record. Florida State’s opponents’ record is still a bit better with a .598 percentage vs a .588 percentage, which is the exact same margin of difference that was in the 25-year outlook.

The Crimson Tide increase their number of major bowl games to 14, but this once again pales in comparison to the 20 that Florida State can claim from the same span. The numbers suggest two similarly successful programs and only strengthen the underlying connections that have been made between the two and their respective histories.

Perhaps the biggest difference between this 40-year check and the previous one with Ohio State is the fact that there is not as clear a gap as before. Sure, the Seminoles hold a lead in most categories, but they’re not big ones. Alabama’s perfect batting average in national championships gives them a powerful card to pull even if they lag in the other major categories. It could very easily be argued that Alabama’s peaks are better than Florida State’s and that FSU is more consistent than Alabama. Both statements may very well be true.

As was the case previously, Florida State’s arrival on the national scene in the late-1970’s is often forgotten due to the tremendous success it would have more than a decade later. In each outlook written so far, the Seminoles do not falter when the time-frame is pushed back past the dynasty years. Every comparison points to the fact that FSU has been one of the best, if not the best, programs of the past 40 years.