Every year the NBA Draft finds new ways to shock us. You can read 1,000 mock drafts, keep your ear to the ground and hear all of the trade rumblings, and find all of the draft rumors that twitter has to offer, but nothing will prepare you. After the freaking first pick in the draft last year, 99% of all mock drafts were sent ablaze and pushed into the sea like a Viking funeral. So, I’m hear to think outside the box and try to nail a few predictions that will make me look good, but inevitably will make me look like a fool.
Now, on with the educated guesses!
1) The Magic trade for the first pick in the draft and take Dante Exum
The Cavaliers were all set to take Kansas center and “guy people need to stop comparing to Hakeem Olajuwon just because their both tall, graceful, and come from Continental Africa”, Joel Embiid, until their world came crashing down around them. Embiid hurt his foot, back, and emotional well-being (probably) and is now out of the running for the top pick. The Cavs were all set to take Dukie Jabari Parker and then he tanked their workout so hard it made the Philadelphia 76ers jealous. Now, they are split between Kansas swingman Andrew Wiggins and Parker. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel that most teams want to be 100% sold on the guy they are taking first overall. The Cavs are now down to maybe selecting their third favorite guy in the draft because their top guy is made of Teflon and their backup plan hates them. That’s so Cleveland.
At this point, it would probably be wise to deal the pick, recoup some assets, and not take a gamble you don’t feel good about.
The Cavs have been listening to overtures about the top pick in the draft for a while now, after all, it is a valuable commodity. I think that when the Cavs assess all of their offers they will find that the Magic’s offer — some combination of the 4th pick, 12th pick, and Arron Afflalo — will be too much to pass up. This would then put Rob Hennigan and the Orlando Magic on the clock and in the driver’s seat.
It is my opinion that the Magic would really, really, like a Dante Exum and Victor Oladipo backcourt for the next 10 years. However, Embiid’s injury put a serious dent in their draft day dream. Since Embiid is going down the draft board and presumably yelling “TIMBERRR!!”, the top 3 (assuming there are no trades) will go Parker, Wiggins, and Exum in some order. Since the Magic draft 4th and can’t magically select a player who goes before them, throwing the draft into a chaotic tailspin where team representatives fight to the death over players with broken pool cues– I’m just saying you should consider it, Mr. Silver — the Magic are screwed.
In this scenario, the Magic would overpay for the 1st pick, ensuring that they beat out competing offers from the Sixers, Jazz, Celtics and others.
All that being said, the Cavs will probably just draft Wiggins and the Magic will take Embiid at 4, whatever.
2) Whoever the Kings pick 8th will eventually become a major piece in a Rajon Rondo trade
Twitter blew up on Tuesday when ESPN reported that the Pistons and Kings were discussing a deal that would send Josh Smith to California’s capital city. Most sane people responded to this report like they had just witnessed their favorite Game of Thrones character get mercilessly killed off.
“WHAT?? why? I, I… I just don’t understand. Why would they do that?!?”
The answer to that amazing and all-important question is this is some shrewd long-term thinking. The Celtics franchise is facing a decisive fork in the road. Down one path, the Celtics acquire Kevin Love and start working toward becoming an immediate contender. In this world, Rajon Rondo wears Celtic Green for a long time.
Along the opposing path, the Celtics do not get Kevin Love, realize that their not competing for anything besides the cellar in the Atlantic Division (although there is some heavy competition for that crown… Let’s go Bargs!!! Give ’em hell!), and that Rajon Rondo will soon leave them in free agency. After a last ditch call to Flip Saunders, offering the 6th pick, 17th pick, and the rest of their kingdom for K-Love, the Celtics realize it’s time to part with the walking triple-double.
Rondo has long been the apple of the Kings’ eye. The problem is that Rondo was never going to stay in Sac-Town. He would have been a short-team rental not worth giving up young talent for. So what’s changed? It’s not like the Kings made the playoffs or are on the verge of some seismic leap that the entire league sees coming. What’s changed, again in this totally hypothetical scenario that probably won’t happen, is the Kings now have Josh Smith.
Sure, it might sound crazy that the Kings acquiring the bricktastic Smith would change Rondo’s entire perception of the organization, but it probably would. Rondo and Smith have been close friends since high school when they dominated together at Oak Hill Academy. I think Rondo would jump at the chance to play again with his best friend. And the Kings know it.
So, to summarize, the Kings trade for Josh Smith, then take someone at pick 8 (Doug McDermott, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, etc.) and then play the waiting game. Once Danny Ainge relents and starts seriously considering proposals for Rondo, the Kings will be armed with Isaiah Thomas, Ben McLemore and Ryan Lewis, I mean whoever they took at pick 8. That will be a tough package to beat.
3) There will be at least 4 draft pick trades between 20-30
Yeah, so I’m saying that at least 40% of the teams selecting in the back third of the first round will be different on Thursday night then they are now. I see this being plausible because a whole lot of those teams — OKC (who have two picks in this range), Memphis, Houston, Miami, Phoenix, and LAC — either want immediate veteran help, to not have to pay a rookie who will eat up precious cap space, would like to sell their pick, or would prefer to have a early 2nd round pick instead of a late first so their draft pick won’t have an extra guaranteed year on his rookie deal. So in 7 of the 10 slots between 20 and 30, teams will be working the phone like a telemarketer. Teams without first rounders like Indiana, Brooklyn, New York, Golden State, and Washington, or teams with tons of ammunition in round 2, like the Sixers, Bucks, T-Wolves, and Sixers again, will happily move into the first round. I fully expect the back end of round 1 to be crazy.
4) The Hornets go all Michigan in the first round
The Hornets, and their awesome new jerseys, have picks 9 and 24 in the first round. It’s been a poorly kept secret that the Hornets would like to add some shooting at pick 9. Last year, the Hornets were 27th in the NBA in 3 pointers attempted and 23rd in 3 point shooting percentage. Adding a dead-eye shooter would open up driving lanes for Kemba Walker and make it harder for teams to double Big Al in the low post. This leads me to believe that either Doug McDermott or Michigan guard Nik Stauskas will be the pick. All reports state that Doug McBuckets has killed the private workout circuit. I think some team between 5 and 8 will get infatuated with his size and shooting stroke and take him before pick 9. This would leave Stauskas as the top shooter on the board.
This weekend Mitch McGary shut everything down. No workouts. No physicals. No dinner with NBA Execs. Nada. On the surface, this seems odd because McGary’s draft profile is a whirlwind of question marks. He practically didn’t play at all this year at Michigan because of Marijuana troubles and he has back issues. Usually, players try to answer these questions during interviews and private workouts. Not McGary apparently. Then on Tuesday, ESPN reported that the Hornets promised they would take McGary at 24. Despite the fact that I think this would be a really bad pick for Charlotte, I’ll take ESPN’s report at face value.
It will be all Maize and Blue in round 1 for the Hornets.
5) The players the Bulls take at picks 16 and 19 will never play a second in a Bulls uniform
The Bulls are trying to win some headlines this season with the hope that it will lead to winning some games. Chicago will do everything in their power to have max, or close to max contract room, for either LeBron or ‘Melo. Every last contract the Bulls can shed is vital. Carlos Boozer’s is easy, all it takes is an amnesty. Mike Dunleavy’s is more difficult.
I think the Bulls will package either 16 or 19 with Dunleavy to some team with ample cap space. They Bulls will receive some future considerations that won’t hurt their current cap sheet.
This leaves one pick to deal. I think the Bulls will keep this pick so that they have another pot sweetener to throw into a Carmelo Anthony sign-and-trade with the Knicks or, if all else fails, some other deal for a established veteran who can help them “win now”.
If the Bulls use either 16 or 19 on Tyler Ennis or P.J. Hairston, the two players who the Knicks are dying to get into round one for, I might yell “TAMPERING!” at my television. Receiving one of these players along with future picks and Boozer’s expiring deal (if he isn’t amnestied), may get the Knicks to start heavily considering a sign-and-trade. Even if that package is the very definition of “pennies-on-the-dollar” for one of the best players in the entire NBA.
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