Five Starting Pitcher Trade Targets for the Phillies

Tanner Roark, CIN

Roark was dealt to the Reds just this offseason for a small trade return in Tanner Rainey. Since then, he has blossomed in his new home and made himself a name to watch this deadline. As a rental with an insignificant salary on a non-contending team, Roark will certainly be moved. Will the Phillies pay for a one-year rental? That’s still unclear. However, if Roark does not command a significant trade return, it’s possible. 

Roark recently hit 100 innings on the season and has been quite the durable pitcher over his career, so as an innings eater he makes sense. He’s been successful this season, posting an 89 ERA-, but a career-high 4.48 xFIP and 5.35 DRA will certainly give teams pause. While Roark has done a solid job of missing bats (22.9% strikeout rate) and hasn’t had any command struggles (7.5% walk rate), he is producing grounders on almost 10% fewer balls in play. That has hurt him with the home run ball. That doesn’t just come from the newer launch angle revolution, but this season he has dropped his sinker usage much more and favored his four-seamer slightly more when looking for velocity. Considering how he struggled to miss bats with his sinker, the idea behind the change wasn’t terrible, but it may benefit Roark more if he gets dealt and goes back to his own pitch mix, especially considering his Barrel% has gone up from 6% to 9%, well above average.

It’s interesting to see this pitcher who was consistently the same guy for the rest of his career experiment to try and break out. Later on in this season, he has bumped up the usage of his slider, and as a result has missed more bats, leading to more strikeouts and more whiffs on pitches in the zone. While it hasn’t resulted in Roark looking like an ace, any improvements will prove he is a better option for the second half of this season than the backend of the Phillies’ rotation. 

Ultimately, Roark is just a cheap, durable starter. He has gone through changes but in the end, he still seems like a #4 starter for a rotation. While he has gotten worse deeper in games throughout his career, he would still be an inning eater for a young team. If the Phillies are really trying to avoid giving up one of their top prospects for a rental, they should look at someone like Roark.

Zack Wheeler, NYM

Wheeler was an obvious candidate and likely would have been one of the biggest name rentals out there this July if it was not for a recent shoulder injury that has forced him onto the Injured List. It’s not yet known how long this injury will keep him out of action. It is, however, realistic that Wheeler comes back and makes at least one final start for the Mets before being dealt close to the deadline. The risk of Wheeler reinjuring himself or not becoming 100% healthy by the deadline is high enough to drive down the prospect cost. The Phillies may look for more of a sure thing, but Wheeler has shown the upside in 2018 that could make a deal worth it.

The 29-year-old is almost certain to be dealt if he does end up making it back. The Mets are clearly out of the race, Wheeler is a free agent at the end of the season, and he’s done well enough this year to represent an intriguing option for starter-needy teams. Following a season in which he had a 3.31 ERA in 182.1 IP and had a 1.68 ERA in the 2nd half of the season, Wheeler has clearly slowed a bit. Although his strikeout and walk rates have improved this season to career bests, Wheeler has run into some home run troubles and currently has an ERA at 4.69.

On the bright side for a team looking for a starter, Wheeler does have an xFIP of 3.85, similar to 2018, and even has a DRA of 3.32, over 30% better than league average. The upside is clear with Wheeler. With a high 90s fastball and experience going over 180 innings a year, Wheeler can be a guy you want in the playoffs. His K%-BB% ranks 21st in the Majors, right next to another trade candidate Robbie Ray. While he hasn’t been able to replicate the contact control from last season, his Barrel% against is close to league average. Overall his repertoire compares to other top-of-the-rotation arms like Gerrit Cole, with 5 pitches all with SwStr% over 9%. 

If healthy, Wheeler would slide in as the Phillies’ 2nd best starter. However, the questions surrounding his shoulder and whether or not the team is interested in a soon-to-be free agent brings some clouds to whether or not a move for the division rival actually happens.