Five Starting Pitcher Trade Targets for the Phillies

Jordan Lyles, PIT

Lyles signed a cheap one-year deal with the Pirates and hasn’t particularly impressed with an ERA over 5.00 this season. And yet, the right-hander that is set to face the Phillies this weekend is rumored to be available and I believe he could get some interest. He did move from reliever to a full-time starter, so some struggles were expected. However, he should finish the season closer to his xFIP of 4.39, or even more optimistically his 3.98 DRA.

Lyles has actually shown enough good starter traits that it seems like Pittsburgh’s experiment worked. Lyles has struck out a quarter of hitters he’s faced and has also used a five-pitch repertoire to average five innings a game. While he could benefit from using pitches other than his four-seamer and curveball more, that mix has made him about average at hitting the strike zone, getting first-pitch strikes, xwOBA against, and getting whiffs. Increased usage in his slider and four-seamer as the season has gone on has helped his ability to miss bats as well, although his ERA has gotten worse throughout the season.  

Lyles has really struggled the third time through the order in his short career as a starting pitcher, so he may not be the best idea if the Phillies are looking for more of an innings-eater. Only his curveball has a real significantly good SwStr% or exit velocity against. Without multiple strong pitches, Lyles may need to lean even more heavily on his curve. 

Overall, Lyles still does need some work and represents a risk, but should be good enough over the rest of his deal that he is considered an upgrade to the back of the Phillies’ rotation. He should not be one of the more expensive trade targets out there.

Madison Bumgarner, SFG

Bumgarner is by far the most talked-about trade candidate this July, and it’s no wonder why. He is having a successful season results-wise, the Giants are sure sellers despite their recent win streak, he is set to become a free agent this offseason, and he is one of the most well-known MLB pitchers thanks to playoff performances of years past. The Phillies were unsurprisingly linked to Bumgarner recently, and while it may seem unlikely they give up significant prospects for the left-handed pitcher or that he will waive his no-trade clause to the club, he is clearly a player to watch in the rumor mill coming up.

Coming off of a 9-inning performance against the Mets at home has put Bumgarner’s numbers at 3.65 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, and 5.95 innings per start. The recent years have been slow for the San Francisco legend. He’s clearly been getting worse, ending last season with a 4.32 xFIP, low strikeout totals, and consistently diminishing velocity. Yet in 2019 he bounced back, looking good as new. He is throwing harder (although he isn’t blowing anybody away with his 92 mph fastball), giving up less contact in the zone, and has a K-BB% of 19.5%, and maybe most importantly has increased his four-seamer spin rate by 300 rpm, forcing more hitters to get under the ball and either miss a high fastball or pop one up. 

There are some detriments, including an above-average barrel% which has hovered 8% three seasons in a row. He has been able to get away with that at AT&T Park, where he has a career HR/FB rate of 8.3% at home, very low for that sort of sample size. If he made a switch to Citizens Bank Park, he would clearly have some more struggles. I am also pretty sure the Phillies are not looking for another pitcher that has beef with Max Muncy, either, but it probably isn’t going to stop them from swinging a deal.

Bumgarner is talented enough at preventing runs that he would clearly be in one of the top two spots in the rotation. The Phillies will not just want him for that but they will also see the upside in a guy who’s career xFIP the third time through the order is only 0.39 higher than the first time through. His postseason experience likely will attract many teams as well, as a former World Series MVP should make any team comfortable.

Steamer and Depth Charts both project Bumgarner to pick up an extra 1.2 fWAR on the season, and then, of course, these teams are looking into playoff races and the playoffs. So in the end, Bumgarner should be decently expensive. But, he also has a no-trade clause to just about every contending team with a need at pitcher, so he could force himself one way or another against the Giants’ will. Bumgarner is definitely one of the more exciting cases to watch this July, even if he does not head to the Phillies.