(Feature Photo Credit/Hunter Gallo)
When looking for the best sleepers, I search not just for value, but for players who have opportunity to shine in a new role. There are a lot of talented players who in the right situation can make a major impact in both the NFL and in fantasy. Conversely a bust doesn’t mean the player isn’t good or that he doesn’t have a chance to succeed. It means that he is being overvalued in draft position, and is likely to get less usage than people thought.
Sleepers
Bruce Ellington WR 49ers
This man has a chance to be PPR gold this season. I remember during the draft a few years ago Mel Kiper had him rated as a first round prospect. He fell to the 4th round and was forgotten about. He has a career stat line of 19-215-2. Chip Kelly comes in as a head coach, and while the jury is still out on him being a good NFL coach, he is a fantasy players dream coach. The Eagles ran the second most plays in the NFL last year compared to the 49ers 29th. Chip Kelly’s offense has always worked through the slot WR– Jordan Matthews was targeted over 100 times each of the last two seasons. Ellington has been getting work out of both the slot and backfield in OTA’s and in camp. This means Chip is going to try and get him on linebackers and safeties. Ellington also has the advantage that his WR on the other side is Torrey Smith. Smith is a talented deep threat who has a knack for the big play, but has never been a target hog, and will keep defenses honest. This will take away from the defense’s ability to focus all the attention on Ellington. Ellington is insanely athletic; at the combine he tested as the same caliber athlete that Odell Beckham Jr did. So Ellington is an athletic freak, playing the primary position of a high powered offense, and Chip Kelly has been raving about him since he took the job. If you add all this up, you have a guy who could become both an NFL star and a fantasy star. I don’t think a 90 catch 1000-yard season is out of the question for him.
Sammie Coates WR Steelers
If you are looking to catch lightning in a bottle this is probably your guy. The Steelers offer a very high upside fantasy offense. Even though Antonio Brown will soak up most of the targets, there is still plenty of room for upside for a second target of Big Ben. Coates tested as one of the best athletes at the 2015 combine; believe it or not, his scouting comparison from a lot of people was Martavis Bryant. Another comparison he received was to Torrey Smith, with worse ball skills, but better run after the catch. He is a freak athlete with an amazing size and speed comparison. The Steelers have allowed for their deep threats to have monster games in the past. Even Heyward Bay had a few big games, and if he could catch would have had a few monster games. Coates has been amazing in practice and camp, and he has a chance to be the deep threat in an offense that gets beyond the safeties a lot.
Donte Moncrief WR Colts
ESPN’s Matthew Berry has him ranked 34th amongst fantasy WRs. This is mind blowing to me. He has 4.35 speed in a 6’2, 220 lb. frame, and is the number 1 red zone target for the Colts. Last season during the games Andrew Luck played he only saw 11 less targets than TY Hilton did. There are 220 targets up for grabs this year with the departures of Andre Johnson, Coby Fleener, as well as others. Over the past two season Moncrief has been better than Hilton in TD rate, catch rate, and drop rate. All reports from camp are that he is ready to break out. He is Luck’s check down guy, and ready to show the league his big play ability. Double digit touchdowns and 1,000 plus yards are reasonable expectations for this third year breakout WR.
Martellus Bennett TE Patriots
Bennett has already made a very positive impression on Tom Brady which is a huge step for any player on the Patriots. Bennett has always been a player with star talent who hasn’t had his head screwed on straight. He seems to be the latest Patriot to figure things out. Based on all reports he has been the first tight end in the building and one of the more impressive players on the field. The Patriots are going to move to two tight ends in their base sets. That means he will be on the field a ton, with the easier matchups as teams try to take away Gronk. He should get double digit touchdowns and if Gronk was to get hurt he would be capable of being the number 1 overall tight end. The Patriots have proven in the past with Aaron Hernandez they can have two tight ends put up number TE1 fantasy numbers.
DeAndre Washington RB Raiders
If you are in the Latavious Murray isn’t good club, then Deandre Washington is the man for you. Murray still owns a lot of fantasy value right now because he will get touches, and opportunity is the most important thing in fantasy football. Washington is said to have already taken the third down role from Murray, and with Roy Helu being cut he doesn’t have much competition for it. Washington averaged 6.73 yards per carry in college, and caught over 120 balls. He is 5’8 204 lbs. ran a 4.49 40 and is very elusive. With a nice preseason he could take early down work from Murray as well, since the Raiders were unhappy with Murray all offseason and weren’t afraid to say as much. In PPR formats he has a chance to match the production of Giovanni Bennard or a Duke Johnson. With an injury or more bad Murray play, he has the chance to have a huge impact as a rookie for a bargain bin price.
Busts
Todd Gurley RB Rams
This is one I will probably catch some heat for as he is most experts’ number 1 back, and a top 5 pick in fantasy drafts. I don’t have Gurley in my top 5 running backs, and barring a major fall I won’t have Todd Gurley on a single team. Gurley was a beast in weeks 4-8 with three top 3 running back weeks. After that point he averaged 66.4 yards and 3.93 yards per carry. Gurley is a very talented back, who runs behind an awful line, with a rookie QB and no WR to help take off the pressure. The Rams plan on using Benny Cunningham on third downs which will greatly affect Gurley’s ability to make a huge impact in the passing game. The Rams ran the least amount of plays in the NFL last year, and with the same coaching staff back it’s not likely to change much with a rookie QB. So being taken out on third down, in a slow paced offense, versus a stacked box, and a brutal running schedule spells trouble for Gurley. He will still have some big weeks and likely will finish top 10 at the position, but that’s not worth his price. If you draft Gurley and he isn’t a top 3 running back, you will be starting way behind the 8 ball.
Kelvin Benjamin WR Panthers
Benjamin is ranked number 16 by Matthew Berry and is in many people’s top 20 WR. People are remembering the touchdowns Benjamin put up and how much Cam Newton has improved and the rapport they had. Benjamin had very bad hands finishing second in the NFL in drops. He was 101st out of 110 qualifiers in catch rate. Plus he had one of the worst yards after catch per reception average, at 102 amongst WRs. Two of his five 80-plus yard games came with Derek Anderson at QB, and four of his nine touchdowns came with the Panthers down 24 plus points which isn’t likely to happen again with how good the Panthers are. The Panthers were dead last in pass attempts last year, so he isn’t likely to see the 142 targets he saw in his rookie year. Plus the Panthers have more weapons with Devin Funchess becoming a more established player. All of that is working against him before we even mention that he is coming back from an ACL tear, which isn’t what it used to be, but can take a while to come back from. He screams pass to me and let someone else pay a high price for a high risk low reward player.
Blake Bortles QB Jaguars
What happens when Mr. Garbage time no longer plays in garbage time. That is the question that should be answered this year. Blake Bortles threw 29 of his 35 touchdowns while trailing, including 14 in the 4th quarter. The Jaguars only scored 35 points in the first quarter all season. This makes me nervous with all the defensive improvements the Jaguars have made. They added Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamura, Tashuan Gipson, Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, and get back Sen’Derrick Marks, and Donte Fowler from injury. The defense is now loaded with talent and Bortles won’t be throwing against prevent defenses allowing him to rack up stats all second half. I think he will be a better QB this season, but have a much worse fantasy season. ESPN wrote an article about how he was going to be a top 5 QB. They ignored in their projections how much of his production came trailing often by major deficits. Bortles does have the weapons, but he also added Chris Ivory, which should help TJ Yeldon a lot as he was great outside the 20s while Ivory is an elite red zone running back. Bortles threw the most interceptions last year, took the most sacks, and had the second worst completion percentage. All indicators point to trouble for Bortles, and with so many solid QBs available I am looking to avoid him.
Tyler Eifert TE Bengals
Eifert is a great talent, that is for sure, but he has a few things that worry me. Number 1 is his health. As of right now he is very questionable for week 1 and that is being positive. The other is regression. Last year Eifert scored 13 touchdowns on just 66 targets. That is a phenomenally rare rate, and regression is sure to happen. Sure Sanu and Jones are gone, replaced by Lafell and Boyd. He is sure to see some more targets, but with his TDs all but sure to regress to let’s say 8 he isn’t a top 8 tight end and his price is too high. There are a lot of good tight ends this year to target, and his usage is way too low to pay his current price tag.
Jeremy Langford RB Bears
The man knew how to make a name for himself last year on Monday Night Football with a huge performance versus the Chargers. However, Jeremy Langford is the definition of a JAG (just another guy). He is bad at pass blocking, and had 8 dropped passes which means the third down role will likely be going elsewhere. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry and had the least amount of runs over 15 yards in the NFL last season. He also averaged only 1.13 yards after contact which is the worst in the NFL. This is all before we get to the point that the backfield is going to be a hot hand approach according to Coach John Fox. It will be a three back backfield with Carey, and Howard fighting for touches as well. Langford is a guy who isn’t good at any particular thing, and quite frankly is bad at a whole lot. Jordan Howard is the player I want in this backfield. Langford is being drafted like a sure fire starting who is guaranteed to see a ton of touches. He is none of those things and won’t be on any team of mine.
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