Bracketology 21 Oct

Once more into the breech!

We are now just five weeks from Selection Sunday. It perhaps shows my geekishness that legitimately gets me excited. I'm looking forward to it like I would the release date for a movie or a video game I've been waiting for (hello Assassin's Creed III on the 30th, you're also on my mind!). I have added Marquette and Iowa State as teams who will make the tournament no matter what, leaving only 18 'true' at-large bids.

Keep in mind as well that 1-64 seeding often has to be nudged a bit to accommodate an optimal S-curve. Where in the better-known basketball tournament, that simply means restricting conference games and regular-season rematches in the first two rounds, in volleyball the selection committee is specifically charged with bracketing in such a way that travel costs are kept as low as possible.

Currently the Southern Conference has two teams in an exact tie for their top position — College of Charleston and Georgia Southern. I have listed both on the appropriate line for the eventual SoCon champion. This league will not get an at-large bid. The Mid-American Conference, however, may, and I have both of their top teams (also exactly tied), Bowling Green and Ohio, in my bracket this week. If the choice was between Clemson and Bowling Green for an at-large bid, I'd go with Bowling Green. Not quite so certain with Ohio, so this bracket considers Ohio the MAC champion and Bowling Green an at-large team.

So let's see what the bracket picture looks like this time, and what may have changed.

SEEDS

1. Penn State
2. Stanford
3. Nebraska
4. Washington
5. Oregon
6. UCLA
7. Texas
8. Louisville
9. USC
10. Minnesota
11. Florida
12. Hawaii
13. Kansas State
14. Florida State
15. San Diego
16. Kansas

PURDUE REGIONAL:

(1) Penn State vs. Colgate
St. Mary's vs. Creighton

Purdue vs. Portland State
(16) Kansas vs. Central Arkansas

(9) USC vs. Albany
Texas A&M vs. Michigan

Dayton vs. Santa Clara
(8) Louisville vs. Yale

CALIFORNIA REGIONAL:

(5) Oregon vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore
Oklahoma vs. Marquette

Ohio State vs. Bowling Green
(12) Hawaii vs. Utah State

(13) Kansas State vs. Towson
Pepperdine vs. Tulsa

North Carolina vs. Missouri
(4) Washington vs. Jackson State

NEBRASKA REGIONAL:

(3) Nebraska vs. Florida-Gulf Coast
North Carolina State vs. Notre Dame

BYU vs. Ohio
(14) Florida State vs. Morehead State

(11) Florida vs. College of Charleston/Georgia Southern
Western Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech

Kentucky vs. Colorado State
(6) UCLA vs. Liberty

TEXAS REGIONAL:

(7) Texas vs. LIU-Brooklyn
Tennessee vs. Michigan State

Iowa State vs. Illinois
(10) Minnesota vs. Cleveland State

(15) San Diego vs. UNLV
Miami vs. IPFW

Arkansas vs. Northern Iowa
(2) Stanford vs. Fairfield

LAST FOUR TEAMS IN:

1. Michigan
2. Santa Clara
3. Georgia Tech
4. Bowling Green

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT:

1. Clemson
2. Oregon State
3. California
4. Wichita State

NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT:

1. Colorado
2. Southern Illinois
3. Northwestern
4. VCU

NUMBER OF BIDS BY CONFERENCE:

8 — Big Ten
6 — Southeastern
5 — Pac 12, West Coast, Big 12, Atlantic Coast
3 — Big East
2 — Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Mid-American
1 — Other 21 conferences

The more I think about it, the more 6 bids for the SEC doesn't seem so farfetched. I think of them as a weak conference (and perhaps objectively they are), but they're miles better than the largely moribund Big East and have a lot of teams that are yeah-maybe-kinda-sorta tournament teams, especially with Tennessee playing like they should again. It's not like the Pac 12 and their five absolute titans (and a slew of not-quites). The Big Ten is kind of the same way once you get past Penn State and Nebraska.

I like this bracket a fair bit better than last week's. I think it's much closer to accurate. Five bids for the WCC seems impossible, and maybe Santa Clara is pushing it, but after St. Mary's beat San Diego this past week and Santa Clara knocked off BYU (to drop the Cougars from the seeds), it's tough to imagine them getting less than four. The only outlier I see is the ACC getting five bids. Georgia Tech may not be a tournament team when all is said and done. But I'm not sure who of my 'first four out' I'd rather see than them (perhaps Wichita State).

New polls tomorrow, which is always fun, and time marches on to Selection Sunday.