One month does not a baseball season make, but it still doesn’t mean we’re not pulling our hair out due to incredibly sluggish starts from normally dependable players. As the calendar flips to May, those small sample sizes we’ve been talking about are getting big enough to become a legitimate concern.
With five months left on the regular-season schedule, there’s still plenty of time to turn things around, but it’ll take longer for stats to return to career norms. Based on 2015 and what happened throughout the winter months, there were a bunch of players expected to make a significant impact on the field.
Now that April is in the books, we can see the opposite has happened. Here are six big disappointments so far during this young MLB season.
(Joey Votto is a pretty obvious one, so I excluded him on purpose.)
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Shelby Miller, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Since Arizona surrendered what many considered a king’s ransom to acquire Miller, nothing has gone right for him with the Dbacks. He’s currently 0-3 with an 8.49 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 19 strikeouts and a league-leading 19 walks in just 23.1 innings of work.
When comparing 2015 to 2016, the biggest statistics that jump out on his FanGraphs page are the increased usage of his changeup (1.9% to 8.5%), along with the decreased usage of his cutter (21.7% to 17.4%) and curveball (9.8% to 6.7%). Although he threw his changeup a decent amount as a rookie, his usage has decreased each season, until now.
It’s hard to believe there’s absolutely no connection here because hitters are only swinging at balls out of the strike zone 19.3% of the time this season, compared to 30.8% in 2015 (28% for his career). He’s also not getting ahead of hitters, as he boasts just a 49.6% first-strike percentage (60.6% for his career).
There are some funky things going on with his delivery, but it could also be pitch selection contributing to Miller’s incredibly slow start.
Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Martin is a catcher creeping closer to his mid-30s, so he’s not expected to carry an offense. Thankfully in Toronto, that’s the last thing he has to do. However, he’s expected to be a threatening part of it off the heels of posting a .787 OPS with 23 homers and 77 RBI last season.
His .141/.211/.156 triple slash with just one extra-base hit isn’t even the most concerning part – it’s the amount of strikeouts he’s piled up, along with the lack of walks. Through 71 at-bats, he’s drawn a walk 5.6% of the time and has gone done on strikes 43.7% of the time.
Obviously, a hitter in a deep slump is going to strike out more often (and he’s been dealing with some neck issues), but combining that with a total lack of power raises more than a few eyebrows. At least his teammate, Troy Tulowitzki, has managed five home runs during his longer-than-anticipated trip on the interstate.
David Price, SP, Boston Red Sox
Price is undefeated in his brief Red Sox career, but this is another reminder why we shouldn’t put too much weight on pitcher wins – especially when the hurler owns a 6.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Boston is paying him handsomely to be a consistently elite presence at the top of the rotation, but he hasn’t put together two straight solid starts yet.
He’s currently 4-0 because Red Sox hitters are scoring an average of 7.33 runs in games he starts. Talk about being fortunate, right?
Logic says he’ll end up being just fine – his 5.44 K/BB ratio is basically in line with what he’s normally done throughout his career. However, one thing to keep an eye on is a drop in fastball velocity (94.2 in ’15 to 92 in ’16). That could explain an increase in line drives from 23.1% last year to 29.5% so far this year.
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Derek Norris, C, San Diego Padres
With Martin and now Norris, am I picking on catchers a little bit? Yes, but it’s tough to say a hitter isn’t a disappointment when they’re sporting an on-base percentage of just .184.
The Padres aren’t expected to have a good offense in 2016, and they’ve lived up to that expectation by already getting shut out seven times. Norris has only managed five extra-base hits (four doubles, one home run), but his struggles could partially be BABIP-related. He owns a career .299 BABIP, including a .310 mark last year, and has only mustered a .193 mark in 2016.
Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
This season hasn’t been kind to the Cardinals so far:
#STLCards woke up today with a losing record, the 4th time that's happened after May 1 — in the last NINE seasons. @MLBNetwork @FOXSports
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) May 2, 2016
The above tweet displays just how good St. Louis has been over the past decade, but it also illustrates how frustrating the last month has been. Wainwright has been one of the most curious cases because he’s been so good for so long and his arm is pretty well-rested considering he was limited to 28 innings in 2015 after injuring his Achilles.
The right-hander’s BB/9 of 3.21 is the highest it’s been since 2012 (2.36), but his .322 BABIP is also the highest it’s been since then (.315). Wainwright has also been rather hittable with men on base (.317/.375/.483) as well as with men in scoring position (.314/.378/.457).
While his fastball velocity of 89.7 mph isn’t very hard, it hasn’t changed much in recent years. One would imagine he’ll start to figure this out sooner rather than later, and he may be on his way after Monday night (three runs allowed on five hits, one walk and four strikeouts in six innings).
Hopefully he is, because the Cardinals really need him.
Carlos Gomez, CF, Houston Astros
Gomez’s tenure in Houston has gone the opposite of how everyone in the Astros organization hoped. While the centerfielder was never known for his patience at the plate, his walk rate (2.4%) and strikeout rate (28.9%) are incredibly alarming.
Unlike some of the slow starters above him, it can’t be blamed on BABIP (.304 this year, .315 for his career). He isn’t seeing as many fastballs (56.5% in ’15, 47.6% in ’16), which could explain his contact rate on balls in the strike zone dropping nearly six percentage points, along with his swinging strike rate rising nearly five percentage points to 17.3%.
So, his .213/.241/.275 triple slash is basically him either being in a deep slump, or continuing a very considerable decline at the age of 30 that we saw begin in 2015.
There were a bunch of players I considered for this list, but had to leave out. Who have been your biggest disappointments now that we’re a month into the MLB season?
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter so we can chat about baseball: @mmusico8.
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