The 2016 MLB postseason is officially in full swing as the remaining eight teams battle for the right to hoist the World Series trophy within the next few weeks. This also means that 22 other squads are already turning the page with their eyes set on making a run at October in 2017.
Every organization goes into a season with the best of intentions, but a lot can happen over 162 games – both good and bad. For a number of teams, the bad outweighed the good, which is why an invitation to play in the postseason never arrived in their respective mailboxes.
Here are six teams feeling a ton of pressure to compete and secure a spot in the playoffs next October:
Tampa Bay Rays
2016 record: 68-94
What the heck happened?
After scoring the sixth-fewest runs in 2015 (644), the Rays acquired Brad Miller, Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson to help bolster the offense. It didn’t move the needle much – they scored 672 runs in ’16 – but it was the underperforming starting rotation that did them in.
This group regressed from a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 2015 to marks of 4.26 and 1.30 this season, respectively. The biggest issues came in May and June when the rotation ERA hovered around 4.75. Without a huge uptick in offense, these struggles were too much to overcome.
Why there’s pressure to compete in 2017
Tampa Bay’s competitive window is reliant on its budget. Matt Moore was traded over the summer for Matt Duffy, but they still have plenty of young arms, including Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell and Alex Cobb.
With the free agent market for pitchers as bare as ever this winter, opposing teams will try to pry some hurlers from them, but will they budge? Probably not in the immediate term, especially since Baseball Ops President Matt Silverman is “hellbent” on competing again, according to the Tampa Bay Times.
But if it doesn’t happen in 2017, Tampa’s most talented and tradable players could be in new locations by year’s end.
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Seattle Mariners
2016 record: 86-76
What the heck happened?
I proclaimed Seattle winners of the offseason before the year started, and a lot of good happened during general manager Jerry Dipoto’s first year. The goal was to get more athletic and raise the Mariners’ performance floor, leading to a 10-game improvement from a disappointing 2015 campaign.
A huge reason for Seattle’s success lies in the middle of its order – Robinson Cano bounced back, hitting .298/.350/.533 with 39 home runs and 103 RBI. And when you combine his performance with another 43 homers from Nelson Cruz and an .859 OPS from Kyle Seager, they have one of the best middle-of-the-order trios in baseball.
Why there’s pressure to compete in 2017
Time is ticking on this core. Seager is 28 years old, but Cano (33) and Cruz (36) probably won’t be playing at such a high level much longer. Felix Hernandez had a decent year despite a drop in velocity (91.8 mph in ’15, 90.5 mph in ‘16), but the organization received a reality check by seeing him go on the disabled list and pitch like a human more often than normal.
Cruz is only under contract for two more seasons, but Cano will be around until 2023 and King Felix won’t become a free agent until 2019. Before the Mariners have to start overpaying for diminishing returns, their best opportunity to compete before having to hit the reset button is now.
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Detroit Tigers
2016 record: 86-75
What the heck happened?
I wondered out loud last winter whether the Tigers wasted Miguel Cabrera’s prime. Turns out Miggy can still swing it (shocking, I know), but it’s another lost year with him in the middle of Detroit’s lineup.
Justin Verlander turned in a Cy Young-caliber season, but Jordan Zimmermann couldn’t keep up his hot start (0.55 ERA in April) when he wasn’t on the DL. Anibal Sanchez was terrible early on, Mike Pelfrey was terrible pretty much the entire time, and if it weren’t for the emergence of Michael Fulmer, the Tigers would’ve been buried a lot sooner than they were.
Why there’s pressure to compete in 2017
Team owner Mike Illitch ain’t getting any younger, ya know. The 87-year-old badly wants to see the Tigers win, and is willing to make a mess of his payroll for it happen (i.e. committing over $200 million for Zimmermann and Upton last winter).
The pieces appear to be there, but they didn’t click at the same time in 2016. Manager Brad Ausmus will be back next season, but after feeling his seat get hot multiple times over the last six months, his job is far from secure if Detroit struggles out of the gate.
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Pittsburgh Pirates
2016 record: 78-83
What the heck happened?
The Pirates finished below .500 for the first time since 2012 for a couple of big reasons: Andrew McCutchen never got himself going and not even pitching coach Ray Searage could save that rotation.
Cutch struggled to a .256/.336/.430 line with 24 homers and 79 RBI, and while his bat showed life down the stretch, it wasn’t enough to erase months of frustration. In the rotation, Francisco Liriano did the opposite of leading the staff before getting traded, Gerrit Cole couldn’t stay healthy and Jonathon Niese was a trainwreck.
On the bright side, youngsters Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow did log valuable innings of experience. Pittsburgh failed to clinch its fourth consecutive playoff berth, but exposing these two was important for their development as big-league pitchers.
Why there’s pressure to compete in 2017
The Pirates are coming to a crossroads with their current core. McCutchen is nearing the end of his deal and will quietly be made available on the trade market, while Cole’s arbitration years are looming.
Time is of the essence for general manager Neal Huntington to win a World Series title with these two as anchors. Taillon, Glasnow and Gregory Polanco appear to be the next wave of top-tier talent for Pittsburgh to build around, but they’re not ready to take over just yet. Given the contract situations for McCutchen and Cole, the Pirates could give it one more try before deciding to go in a different direction.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
2016 record: 69-93
What the heck happened?
Losing A.J. Pollock on the eve of Opening Day was a blow the team never recovered from, but the starting rotation was a major disappointment. After having one of baseball’s most productive offenses in 2015, the front office went all in on Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to pair with Patrick Corbin and create a three-headed monster.
It’s not shocking that Greinke didn’t repeat his ridiculous 1.66 ERA from ’15 (4.37 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in ’16), but the struggles from Miller and Corbin were. Instead of taking another step forward, Arizona took two major steps back as an organization and will now start over after firing manager Chip Hale, general manager Dave Stewart and re-assigning Chief Baseball Officer Tony La Russa.
Why there’s pressure to contend in 2017
As bad as the Dbacks played, they have a lot of good pieces in place. Jean Segura had a career year, Welington Castillo is solid behind the plate, Pollock will hopefully be healthy and Paul Goldschmidt is still Paul Goldschmidt.
One can only imagine the pitching staff’s overall performance has to improve. However, Greinke will become the elephant in the room if his performance continues regressing with that $30 million per season paycheck while Arizona deals with a gutted farm system from the win-now moves Stewart made last winter.
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Houston Astros
2016 record: 84-78
What the heck happened?
The Astros just dug themselves into too big of a hole (17-28 through their first 45 games). Plus, they couldn’t beat the Texas Rangers if their lives depended on it (4-15 vs. Texas, 80-63 vs. everyone else).
The rotation took hits from Dallas Keuchel regressing and Lance McCullers being unable to stay healthy. They were pretty good on defense, but average at the plate and a little better than average on the mound. It was impressive to see them in the AL Wild Card race for most of the second half, but an average year usually isn’t good enough to gain entry into October.
Why there’s pressure to compete in 2017
The young talent on this team includes players like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Ken Giles and George Springer. Many thought the Astros arrived a year earlier than expected with their 2015 postseason appearance, and watching them go through growing pains the following season isn’t out of the ordinary.
With this young nucleus, the window to compete is right now while the price tags on Altuve, Correa, Springer and Keuchel are all manageable. Houston fans went through those awful years of losing with the hope they’d watch this team in the postseason on a consistent basis. It’s now up to the organization to make it happen.
Every non-playoff team faces pressure to outperform the prior year’s results, but which of the above six teams is feeling it the most with 2017 on the horizon?
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