After a messy win last night, the Red Sox are hading to Philadelphia to start a 3-game series with the Phillies. The #1 ranked offense vs. the #1 ranked pitching staff, these games will all be nail biters for Sox and Phillies fans alike. Look for the Sox to possible try and start Ortiz today, but that will not be their top priority, as he’s been getting plate appearances as a pinch hitter. Varitek will start over Saltalamacchia since Beckett is pitching, but the difference between the two at the plate isn’t enough to scare me. The Sox will need to work around Ryan Howard and possibly Placido Polanco if he makes it in to the lineup today. Polanco is day-to-day after being hit in the hand by a pitch on Tuesday, but x-rays have come back negative.
Pitching Matchup: Josh Beckett (6-2, 1.86 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (8-5, 2.87 ERA)
After a rocky start to the season, Josh Beckett has rebounded strongly, losing only one game since April 10th. We;ll have to see hwo this stomach bug has affected him, but there’s reasons to be hopeful: Beckett’s 4 pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup, cutter) have been worth a combined 7 runs above average this season (this means that these pitches have given up 7 less runs than average over 100 pitches). Lee, on the other hand, is essentially pitching at even. His fastball and curveball have saved a combined 3 runs but his slider has given them right back. He doesn’t throw his slider much but it tends to hang now and again, which is something that the righties on the Sox will love if they see. Lee is an exceptional pitcher, however: you need to put your bat on the ball to get it in to play, and Lee is posting a K9 (strikeouts per 9 innings) of 9.08 right now. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is right around .300, which means that this is standard Cliff Lee pitching and not exceptional for him. This just goes to show you what an effective pitcher he really is.
Keys to a Red Sox victory lie in Beckett not making any mistake and giving up easy runs, and Red Sox batters not leaving too many stranded on base. Lee is only giving up around 10 hits per game, we can’t afford to waste them.
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