What went wrong this season? How did a season that seemed to be filled with so much potential narrowly escape being the worst of all time?
It’s hard to even find a place to start with this question. So much has happened this year. I think the main issue is something I alluded to earlier this year, the defense really regressed. The addition of Jahlil Okafor combined with the loss of key system defenders in Michael Carter-Williams and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute led to some struggles this year. The defense that the team was able to hang its hat on during the 2014-15 season was gone and it really hurt.
Secondly, the team started the season with no point guard depth. Ish Smith did not return in free agency and the other point guards were injured. Both Kendall Marshall and Tony Wroten took more time to recover from their respective injuries than expected. Neither of those guys are great, but they are NBA point guards who can run an offense to a certain extent. Their injuries forced TJ McConnell to play a role that he was not ready for at the beginning of the season. TJ exceeded all my expectations, but his early season struggles really hurt the team as they got off to that abysmal start.
Lastly, certain players just did not live up to expectations as a lot of people underperformed. Robert Covington was inconsistent the whole season. Nerlens Noel did not improve as much as Sixers fans might have hoped. Jahlil Okafor didn’t necessarily live up to his hype as the number 3 overall pick in a really strong draft class. None of these guys were terrible and Sixers fans shouldn’t be discouraged by their performance, but they didn’t live up to expectations and that really hurt the team.
Now that Sam Hinkie is gone, will the vision of the organization change? How will Bryan Colangelo’s strategy differ from Sam Hinkie’s?
I would wager that a lot of Sixers fans probably think of Bryan Colangelo as the anti-Hinkie. It makes sense. Colangelo was hired by his father, the very man who pushed Sam Hinkie to resign, in a general manager search that wasn’t exactly thorough. Clearly, Sixers fans have reason to be skeptical of the younger Colangelo. Still, while I was certainly not in favor of the move, I think Colangelo does have a least a decent track record. As Liberty Ballers’ Max Rappaport wrote, Colangelo has a pretty solid draft history. There are some misses in there, but he’s drafted some solid players in a variety of different draft spots. Bryan also made some good free agent signings during his tenure with the Suns. Colangelo also is known for his use of analytics and sports science to help in decision making throughout his career. Essentially, he is not some old school guy who thinks that numbers have no place in the game and who can’t evaluate talent.
The point here isn’t that Colangelo was a perfect general manager. He wasn’t. The point is that he is willing to take risks and he respects analytics. He is a kind of watered down version of Sam Hinkie in this regard. Many Sixers fans may even think of this as an improvement over Hinkie who adhered too closely to his team building strategy at times. I would still prefer Hinkie, but I’m not really sure that the overall direction of the organization will change dramatically. They will probably value short term goals a little bit more than Hinkie would have, but I don’t see Colangelo selling the farm or using all the cap space on mediocre veterans who don’t fit the Sixers rebuilding timeline.
What are the Sixers going to do with all their big men? How do they choose between Noel, Okafor and Embiid? Is that choice even possible to make at this point?
The question of who the Sixers choose to move forward with is complicated. I think that the team can really only keep one of their three centers long term. Short term, the situation is more tenable but still not great. They need to find minutes for all three along with Dario Saric, Jerami Grant, and Richaun Holmes. They can go into next season with all three but that will force guys like Saric and Grant to play the small forward spot, which I don’t think they can really do for more than a handful of minutes a game.
I think the best case scenario for the Sixers is to trade one of these three guys before the start of next season but it doesn’t seem like the right time to trade any of them. Noel seems like the most surefire of the three to be a good player but he has a low ceiling and will be up for an extension after next season. Okafor had an up-and-down rookie season which ended with a serious knee injury. He has a lot of potential but his trade value may never be lower. I’m also not sure if the Sixers want to keep Jahlil considering his defensive deficiencies and anachronistic offensive game. Lastly, there is Joel Embiid. Embiid is the most talented of the three by far. He can fit into a variety of systems and with a variety of different frontcourt partners. The problem is that he hasn’t played a game in two years due a serious foot injury. I wouldn’t be comfortable with the Sixers building around Embiid even after a fully healthy year, let alone before he has ever played a game. All three of these guys are talented but the Sixers can’t really build around or move on from anyone of them with any real confidence. I think they will stay pat this summer because they won’t be able to find proper value for any of them but I’m not sure that does them any good.
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How are the Sixers going to attack the 2016 Draft? What are some possible moves the team could make with its numerous first round picks?
I think a lot of how the Sixers attack this draft will depend on lottery luck. Will they have one or two top five picks? Where will their own pick land? Some decisions on who to pick or what to do will be made for them. Others they will need to decide for themselves. As I said in my new Sixers big board, I think Brandon Ingram is the best player for the Sixers. He fits really well within the team. If they fall outside the top 2, I would probably trade some of my assets (whether it be in the form of the Lakers pick or one of the three big men) in order to move up to grab Ingram. He needs to be the Sixers top priority.
The Sixers could also use this draft as a means to grab a point guard. There are two interesting late lottery prospects in Demetrius Jackson and Wade Baldwin. I would try to package the OKC and Miami picks to move up into this late lottery area to grab one of these guys. The Sixers can really use those two late first round picks in a variety of ways. They can keep them to grab a lower rated point guard like Tyler Ulis or Dejounte Murray as well as a wing prospect like Deandre Bembry. They also might want to use those picks to trade back and grab some second round picks, which the team is suddenly devoid of in the immediate future. Regardless of what the Sixers want to do, there will be a lot of luck at play. However, their stockpile of assets might just allow them to make their own luck.
What will the Sixers plan in free agency be? How does the team use this medium to build its roster?
This free agency period will be a difficult one to predict. The salary cap for next year is projected to be a whopping 92 million dollars. The Sixers will be one of many teams with a lot of money to spend on a not so inspiring crop of free agents. A lot of players are going to get overpaid this offseason. The trick will be to overpay the right guys. I think the Sixers strategy needs to be to go after young free agents early in free agency. The team should have meetings set up with every young guard and wing on the market for the first few days of free agency.
Specifically, I think the Sixers need to go after restricted free agents on teams with free agency aspirations. Guys like Jordan Clarkson, Harrison Barnes and Bradley Beal come to mind. The Sixers should throw a ton of money at all those guys on the first day of free agency and force their teams to match before those other team are able to secure higher level free agents. All three of these young players’ teams want Kevin Durant. If you force the teams to make a decision on matching early, you make them decide between keeping their young players or having a chance at one of the top 3 players in all of basketball. One of those teams may choose to go after KD and that would leave the Sixers with a good young player on a manageable deal. Things may not be that simple, but the Sixers need to be aggressive but smart regardless.
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Is there a trade for a superstar level player out there this offseason for the Sixers? Which players could be available?
Obtaining a superstar caliber player via a trade as opposed to the draft or free agency is something that rebuilding teams always keep in mind. It’s become especially pertinent in the minds of rebuilding teams since Houston traded for James Harden. Every team needs to have a stockpile of assets in case “the next James Harden” becomes available. It is a smart strategy. A disgruntled star or promising young players usually becomes available once every couple years. I think the Sixers have the assets to strike in this kind of a trade with a team that is rebuilding as opposed to looking for win now pieces in return for their star. Still, even this problem can be worked around through three team trades.
The only problem is that I’m not sure anyone on this level will be available this summer. There have been rumors all year. It seems like the immensely talented and productive but petulant Demarcus Cousins is always out there in trade rumors. There have been whispers of Jimmy Butler clashing with Bulls executives, coaches and players. Some think Paul George may be unhappy being forced to play small ball power forward in Indiana. We have heard about these guys all year but I don’t think any of these will materialize. The Pacers and Bulls would be foolish to part with such great players when they still have them under contract for the immediate future. Demarcus Cousins may be available at some point but it will be a hefty price to pay for someone who has not gotten along with one coach throughout his entire team in the league. The Kings are dysfunctional but Cousins may just never be someone you can build a stable team around. I just don’t think that the superstar trade is out there for the Sixers this year.
How did Brett Brown do this year as a coach? Is his job in any real jeopardy with the resignation of Sam Hinkie?
First of all, it is important to judge Brown’s performance as a coach this year. I think he did fine. He continued to hold the locker room together despite near-unprecedented levels of losing and media scrutiny. He is great with the media and the players love Brett. The Sixers rarely come out flat under Brown and he isn’t afraid to sit players who he thinks aren’t giving it their all. He also has shown himself to be a solid defensive coach who preaches theoretically sound offensive principles. The results haven’t always been there but that’s more of an indictment of the talent, not Brown’s coaching ability.
Still, Brett can improve. I think the thing he can best improve on is his in-game decision making. Brown doesn’t always draw up the most inspiring offensive plays in crunch time or out of timeouts. Maybe this is because he doesn’t trust his guys to run anything complex, but the vanilla stuff that he consistently calls in important moments of the game could use some tweaking. Brown will also just play some inexplicable line-ups at time. His propensity to play Isaiah Canaan was frustrating. He refused to play Christian Wood, even when the team had no other healthy big men. He had no patience for Stauskas despite giving other players with less potential a much longer leash. Still, Brown was put in a tough position and generally did a good job. I am happy with him leading this team into the future.
Now you might be wondering why one would even question the future of a coach who just signed a long term extension. The answer lies in Sam Hinkie’s resignation. Hinkie was the one who signed Brett to his extension. Brett should be safe regardless of the front office shake-up but there have been whispers from anonymous sources (cough Jerry Colangelo cough) that the Sixers might have interest in replacing Brett Brown with assistant Mike D’Antoni who has a long history of working with the Colangelo. However, the younger Colangelo told TCNs Breakfast on Broad that Brett Brown was the coach for this team because he had earned the right after these last three years. This wouldn’t be the first time that a Colangelo lied to the Sixers fan base but I am willing to take Bryan at his word and believe that they will give Brett an extended chance to prove that he is the guy for this team.
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