After a sixth inning for the ages last night, the Sox managed to hold off the Astros for their first win in this series and the third win on this road trip. The Sox scored more runs in that sixth inning than they have in any other game they’ve played since this interleague stint began. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but the Sox looked good in that inning, even if they didn’t before that. They should capitalize off of that surge going in to the game tonight. Pedroia and Gonzalez both had hot bats last night for a moment, only getting one hit each but netting 4 RBIs between them. Pedroia also managed to get walked twice. The Sox actually got walked 9 times while surrendering no free passes of their own. They gave up 13 hits, but luckily the Astros didn’t turn that in to a winning effort. Ortiz is back at first tonight, with Gonzo out in right field. A lot of people have expressed concern over him playing out there, but in reality only about 10% of all plate appearances end with a ball in right field, so I trust him to handle the 3 balls he’ll see tonight.
Pitching Matchup: Andrew Miller (1-0, 3.09 ERA) vs. J.A. Happ (3-9, 5.54 ERA)
Andrew Miller receives his 3rd start of the season tonight, courtesy of a tumultuous pitching rotation. This means he’s only pitched two games this season before this, so his statistics will not be as helpful as I’d like, but we can still figure out a few things from it. In his last start he only gave up three runs to the Pirates, and the Astros are worse than the Pirates. He’s struck out 10 in his two starts, and he’s only given up one home run. He needed 109 pitches to get through six innings last time, so it would be nice if he could last a little longer in these games. His fastball needs a little more zip on it and his slider could use another inch or so of break, but he’s young and this is only his sixth season in the majors. Look for some mechanical improvements tonight while he goes for the win.
J.A. Happ pitched for the Phillies last year before being traded to Houston, and he’s been getting worse ever since. This could be a result of the always terrible Astros fielding as opposed to Happ’s pitching. His K/9 is at 7.90 this season, which is the best it’s been since 2007. His WHIP is at 1.54 which is a little high considering how good he is from the rubber to the plate. He throws a fastball, a curve, a slider, and a changeup. His fastball and changeup are right on average as far as runs being surrendered, but his slider and changeup are giving up 4.68 runs above average. These are also the two pitches he throws the most outside of his fastball. His pitch speed isn’t great, so if the Sox can get a bat on the ball, they should be able to get some early runs out of him.
Keys to victory for the Sox will be to keep balls out of right field and to get a lot of innings out of Andrew Miller so they don’t have to rely on their iffy bullpen. Good luck and go Sox!
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