Oh man, was that a rough game yesterday. Woof. The worst part about it is that the Sox had their offense turned on. Jacoby Ellsbury improved his line to .310/.370/.834 right now, and a hit in today’s game will push him to a 5-game hitting streak. I don’t need to tell you guys about what a difference maker Adrian Gonzalez is for us, but a player you may not realize is hitting the ball extremely well is Jose Bautista. Though he was held to only one hit in yesterday’s game, the numbers he’s put up this season are astronomical: .329/.467/1.146 and 24-for-29 as far as collecting at least one hit since 6/4. Bautista is frankly playing out of his mind baseball. Also keep an eye on Yamaico Navarro today, who is filling in for Kevin Youkilis. He wasn’t incredible in Pawtucket but he seems to be adjusting very well at the major league level.
Pitching Matchup: Jon Lester (10-4, 3.43 ERA) vs. Brett Cecil (1-3, 7.24 ERA)
My first reaction here is to just get stoked, because look at Cecil’s ERA. How can I be nervous against a pitcher with an ERA like that? He’s barely getting strikeouts (only 21 in his 5 starts, K/9 of 6.91), he’s walking people like crazy (14 walks, BB/9 of 4.91), and he can’t keep the ball in the park effectively (5 homers, HR/9 of 1.65). Batters are hitting .291 off of him, and his BABIP isn’t much higher than average at .321. He throws a lot of changeups and sliders, and barely uses his curveball. Statistically, his curveball saves almost 8 runs above average, but I think the sample size may be a little too small there. The rest of his pitches are junk. His fastball alone gives up 3 runs more than average.
Lester, meanwhile, is proving that he is the Sox’s ace this season. His K/9 sits at 8.56 and batters are only hitting .238 against him this season. His changeup and cutter are great, his fastball is average, and his curveball could use some work. His first pitch strike percentage is 58%, which is always a great way to start an at-bat. Lester is the most dominant and consistent pitcher we have right now until Beckett gets back on track, and even then it’s a toss up.
Keys to winning todays game lie in good defense and strong run support for Lester. Good luck and go Sox!
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