Just two weeks remain until Selection Sunday. I hope you’re as excited as I am for this volleyball postseason. It’s gonna be a great one.
As upset-ridden as last week was, that’s how much it was a chalk-fest this week. The only loss among the top nine teams was Washington’s four-set loss at Stanford the very next night after a marathon against Cal. So I’m not punishing them for that loss, not one bit. At the 10-slot Minnesota lost this week to both Michigan schools, taking just one set in the process. The Gophers are gonna take a tumble in seeding, but this along with the wins last week against Nebraska likely solidifies the two Michigan schools as tournament teams. They’d been bubble-dwellers since pretty much when I started doing this. Also towards the top of the rankings, Louisville stumbles a little, but this is only because of the weaker competition they played than the teams around them.
There were a few shakeups towards the bottom of the rankings. With wins against both North Carolina and NC State, Georgia Tech leapfrogs bubblemates Clemson to nab the ACC’s last bid. Much as I don’t like it, the ACC probably are gonna get five. Florida State, Miami, and UNC are cinches, NC State is probably in, and then either Clemson or Georgia Tech are probably just strong enough to sneak in. I’ve also included a sixth Pac-12 team for the first time since my first week doing this. I guess you could say I’m taking Karch Kiraly’s word for it, since he mentioned during the Cal/UW broadcast that the Arizona schools could be in line for bids. I see a 6-10 conference record and, even knowing how strong the Pac-12 is, I think that team can’t possibly be in, but we’ll see. So Arizona State, you’re in. They had a much stronger non-conference than Arizona, and I’ll be absolutely floored if the Pac-12 gets seven or more. Can a case be made for Cal? Sure. But if Cal makes it, no way do either of the Arizona schools.
In this zero-sum game, Arizona State’s gain is Bowling Green’s loss. With the Falcons’ loss to Northern Illinois this past week, they’re now on the outside looking in as the Ohio Bobcats have secured the Mid-American Conference regular season. There’s still a conference tournament there, and if it ends with Bowling Green knocking off Ohio it’s possible they could both make it in. An especially eagle-eyed reader will also note that IPFW no longer leads The Summit League, and the new conference leader IUPUI is much further down in the RPI, so the rankings among the automatic bids from the lesser conferences have to be shuffled a bit, too.
All right, here goes nothin’.
SEEDS
1. Stanford
2. Penn State
3. Texas
4. Nebraska
5. Washington
6. Louisville
7. UCLA
8. Oregon
9. USC
10. Purdue
11. Florida
12. Hawaii
13. Minnesota
14. Florida State
15. Kansas State
16. BYU
LAST FOUR TEAMS IN:
1. North Carolina State
2. Wichita State
3. Georgia Tech
4. Arizona State
FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT:
1. Clemson
2. Bowling Green
3. Cal
4. Southern Illinois
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT:
1. Northwestern
2. UNLV
3. Virginia Tech
4. Baylor
CALIFORNIA REGIONAL
(1) Stanford vs. Jackson State
Kentucky vs. Northern Iowa
Miami vs. Idaho State
(16) BYU vs. Towson
(9) USC vs. IUPUI
Dayton vs. North Carolina State
North Carolina vs. Missouri
(8) Oregon vs. Albany
NEBRASKA REGIONAL
(5) Washington vs. Liberty
Creighton vs. St. Mary’s
Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
(12) Hawaii vs. Georgia Southern
(13) Minnesota vs. Morehead State
Kansas vs. Georgia Tech
Pepperdine vs. Michigan
(4) Nebraska vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore
TEXAS REGIONAL
(3) Texas vs. Fairfield
Marquette vs. Michigan State
San Diego vs. Arizona State
(14) Florida State vs. Central Arkansas
(11) Florida vs. Cleveland State
Iowa State vs. Wichita State
Tennessee vs. Santa Clara
(6) Louisville vs. LIU-Brooklyn
PURDUE REGIONAL
(7) UCLA vs. Florida-Gulf Coast
Notre Dame vs. Colorado State
Texas A&M vs. Ohio
(10) Purdue vs. Utah State
(15) Kansas State vs. Yale
Ohio State vs. Tulsa
Oklahoma vs. Arkansas
(2) Penn State vs. Colgate
CONFERENCES BY NUMBER OF BIDS
7 – Big Ten
6 – Pac-12, Southeastern
5 – Big 12, Atlantic Coast, West Coast
3 – Big East, Missouri Valley
2 – Mountain West
1 – Other 22 conferences
I like this bracket better than last week’s. I’m still waiting to see if I look like a prophet or a fool when it comes to the WCC (and the Pac-12, for that matter). I don’t find the seeding to necessarily be truly accurate, but it had to be nudged a little bit for the S-curve, or else Nebraska and Purdue would have been in the same regional, and that’s not going to happen. I also tend to doubt Hawaii will be in anything but the California regional, but I couldn’t find a way to place them there this week. I hadn’t realized how fragile NC State’s position was when I first wrote the lead-in. They’ve lost five of six now and if they stumble against the Virginia schools at home this week, they’ll be in a heap of trouble.
Tomorrow’s polls shouldn’t show much change. Everybody won the matches they were supposed to win. That tends to be the case in the tournament itself, as well. Since the dawn of rally scoring, there has only been one year where all 16 seeded teams didn’t win their first-round matches (that being 2010, which actually featured three such upsets). Most years the ‘Sweet 16′ are the seeded teams (maybe there’s one or two exceptions) and an unseeded team has yet to make the Final Four since rally scoring began in 2001. Some things to keep in mind when you fill those brackets out in two weeks’ time :p
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