Hypothetical vote for March 18 poll

This post will be a little bit more challenging than usual…

1. BYU. Except for the top of the mountain. BYU were idle this week (well….they didn’t play a match….hopefully they weren’t idle) so at numero uno they remain. The Cougars get their motor runnin’ and head out on the highway this week, playing at Northridge and Long Beach. Both important matches, but especially so the Long Beach match.

2. UC Irvine. As it happened, both UCI and LBSU lost this week, and I think the three of them (with BYU) are still solidly a step above anyone else. Though they may be getting ready to come back down to earth. We’ll see. On Tuesday, the Anteaters lost a competitive four-setter at Pepperdine, before rebounding (there I go again with basketball on the brain) for a straight sets sweep against the USC Trojans at the Galen Center. And that was UCI’s last regular-season road match this year. They’ve got five MPSF matches and a non-conference match with Penn State prior to the playoffs. No match for them this coming week — they host UCLA and UC San Diego in two weeks’ time.

3. Long Beach State. For their part, the 49ers blew a two-set lead against UCLA before losing in five. They came back well over the weekend in their round-robin invitational with George Mason and IPFW, defeating both the Patriots and the Volleydons, though the George Mason match was another 5-setter. Playing three matches in four days can’t be easy, so it’s good on the Niners that the last one was actually the quickest. Two more home matches for the ‘Beach before four of their last five are on the road, as they host Cal Baptist and BYU this week.

4. Pepperdine. The Waves definitely cemented themselves as the #4 team in the conference and nation, with room for growth still possible, after their win over UCI. Later in the week, they dominantly dispatched with UC San Diego in three straight sets. Sophomore outside hitter Scott Rhein hit 13/0/16 for the match — that’s .812, good for fifth-best efficiency in school history, rally scoring era (I imagine it’s a minimum of 10 swings). The Waves are playing some good ‘ball, and they’re doing it without Kyle Gerrans, who was thought to be a pretty big loss when he went out injured a few weeks back. Just one match for Pepperdine this week, at USC. Look for their winning ways to continue.

5. Lewis. While they did suffer that 3-1 loss to Loyola (which I covered), I still like their body of work better than Ohio State’s, not least their dominant head-to-head win. So I can’t really find room to drop them. They came back later in the week this past to sweep aside St. Francis College in non-conference play. Three matches for the Flyers this week, starting with an interesting non-conference home match against the Princeton Tigers that I’m pretty excited to see. Then they hit the road for MIVA encounters with the conference’s two weakest teams, Lindenwood and Quincy. I expect they’ll win all three matches, though as one remembers the Loyola loss came at home, that Princeton match could be a tight one.

6. Ohio State. Just one match this past week for the Buckeyes, but it was an important one, against Big Ten brothers Penn State (oddly as a non-conference match in men’s volleyball). The Buckeyes swept aside the Nittany Lions to continue Penn State’s relative tailspin. The two play an annual home-and-home, and when you add in a match at Hawaii’s home invitational, they’ve played three times this year, with Penn State winning in Hawaii but Ohio State taking both on the mainland, and all three matches were straight sets sweeps. Two matches this week for Ohio State, against MIVA also-rans Ball State and IPFW.

7. UCLA. The Bruins are heating up. This past week, they claimed 5-set road wins against two pretty good teams, beating Long Beach State (as mentioned) as well as Cal State Northridge. The results put them just one match in the loss column behind Pepperdine for 4th in the MPSF. Top three are probably locked up (whatever the order ends up being), so 4th, being the last first-round home match in the MPSF playoffs, is a nice prize out there for somebody in this range of the rankings. The 5-set matches this past week were UCLA’s 11th and 12th of the season, which I have to believe are close to a record if not already one. No match for UCLA this week, so they can ride on the emotion of those two big results a bit longer.

8. Stanford. I’m nothing if not a stubborn son of a gun (daughter of a gun?), so if Stanford were here a week ago and didn’t play this week, then by god, that’s where they are this week. So take a guess where they’ll be next week, because they don’t have a match this week, either. They’ll finally get back to it at the end of next week, playing host to Northridge and Long Beach.

9. CSU Northridge. Rough week for the Matadors, dropping a four-setter at UCSB and a five-setter at home against UCLA (as mentioned). The losses leave them just 8-8 in conference, and while it’s not yet time to start panicking, that time is potentially within view. Any further slippage could make things a little dicey. Wednesday/Friday for the Matadors this week against Cal Baptist and BYU, both at home, and they really need to bank on winning that CBU match to make sure the ship is righted.

10. Loyola. As I said in my Loyola/Lewis report, I felt pretty vindicated having had the Ramblers in my rankings for a few weeks running. Maybe I still have them a little too high, but they needed to be upped after that win and this feels like reasonable room for it given the recent results for those in this range of my vote last week. They avoided the letdown last week after the Lewis win, beating St. Francis in straight sets. Interestingly, they have precisely the same schedule as Lewis this week — they host Princeton, and then travel to Quincy and Lindenwood.

11. UC Santa Barbara. Where the heck did this team come from? I mean really. I had all but written them off when they were 5-11, but with victories this week against two teams that really aren’t bad (Northridge, as mentioned, along with Harvard) they’re now winners of four straight and six of their last seven. Things are really looking up for the Gauchos. They’re off this week but have three very winnable matches next week, facing Division III Concordia and then a double-shot in Hawaii.

12. Cal Baptist. Two big wins for the Lancers this week over Hawaii, a four-setter the first night and a five-setter the second. It’s still not clear whether they’re even eligible for the MPSF playoffs (I assumed not in my MPSF preview piece, but then sorta forgot about it a few days ago). But whatever chances they have, if indeed they have them, were kept alive this week (while Hawaii’s simultaneously went on life support). Three matches for the Lancers this week, as they face Harvard on Monday in a quick turnaround for the Crimson (and a match that could tell us a lot) before MPSF road matches with Northridge and Long Beach.

13. Penn State. The Nittany Lions are reeling, and honestly, they may not even be ranked at all in real poll tomorrow. The Ohio State sweep was their only match of the week this past, but it went about as badly as they could ever have seen in their nightmares, hitting just .168 to the Buckeyes’ .478 and had no blocks. As in, zero. With Harvard fading, Penn State are probably still the best team in the EIVA — not that that’s looking like it means a whole lot. Their 14-year string of NCAA tournament appearances could be in some serious jeopardy, because they’re not an obvious win in really any postseason matchup. Their only match this coming week is at St. Francis, so they should get back to their winning ways after losing three straight, but whoo boy, if they don’t….

14. Harvard. I guess? They’re playing their way out of the esteem they attained earlier in the year. Along with being swept by UCSB, the Crimson had a 4-set win over Sacred Heart, which is one of those wins that if I were just a little bit more cynical I would say shouldn’t really even count as wins. Is their body of work better than the lower reaches of the MPSF? Judgment call. Probably not. They may not even be on 2 ballots tomorrow. This week for the Crimson it’s Cal Baptist and Concordia.

15. Hawaii. Ugh. A team loses two, they should drop, but who would come in? Seriously, who? 4-13 USC? A George Mason team that also lost twice this past week? It would really be a reach to drop down to somebody like Grand Canyon or IPFW. Or to Pacific for them winning for the first time in over a month (snapped a 10-match losing streak). So yeah, go ‘Bows and whatever. They host a double shot with UCSB this weekend and if they want any prayer of making the playoffs they have to win both nights.

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