Each year, when the now-68-team NCAA tournament bracket is selected, there is always some talk about snubs, the worthiness of “Mid-Majors”, and with 347 teams in Division 1, is 68 really enough for the NCAA Tournament.
So what if the entire NCAA basketball regular season and conference tournaments were nothing more than one really elaborate process to determine seeding for a tournament that includes every single Division 1 team? If this were actually to occur, it would only add 1 weekend to the tournament (round of 256 on Thursday-Friday and round of 128 on Saturday-Sunday with play-ins to whittle down from 347 to 256 on Tuesday-Wednesday). So thanks to the spectacular website What If Sports? I was able to simulate the entire 347 team tournament with seedings based on the RPI ratings as they stood on Selection Sunday. Since the base tournament after play-ins is 256 teams, I organized the tournament into 16 regions that would have seeds 1-16 after the play-ins (each region started with 21 or 22 teams). Here’s a recap of how the tournament went:
Region 1
Top 4 Seeds: Duke, NC State, Southern Miss, Montana
Biggest Upset: #13 Toledo over #4 Montana
What happened to #1 Seed: Won the Region
Other Notes: #12 Washington State made it to the round of 64
Regional Final: #1 Duke 70, #2 NC State 69
Region 2
Top 4 Seeds: New Mexico, San Diego State, Minnesota, Charlotte
Biggest Upset: #8 Vermont over #1 New Mexico
What happened to #1 Seed: Lost to #8 Vermont in round of 128
Other Notes: Denver made it to regional final after beating Vermont in the round of 64. Florida Gulf Coast was the #6 seed and only made it to the round of 128, losing to Minnesota
Regional Final: #3 Minnesota 74, #5 Denver 65
Region 3
Top 4 Seeds: Louisville, St. Mary’s, Missouri, South Dakota State
Biggest Upset: #14 Buffalo over #3 Missouri
What happened to #1 Seed: Lost to #2 St. Mary’s in Regional Final
Other Notes: #11 Seed George Mason (2013 CBI runner-up) made it to the round of 64
Regional Final: #2 St. Mary’s 74, #1 Louisville 65
Region 4
Top 4 Seeds: Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Wichita State, Davidson
Biggest Upset: #13 Idaho over #4 Davidson
What happened to #1 Seed: Won the Region
Other Notes: #10 Utah made the round of 64 by upsetting #2 Middle Tennessee. Miami (FL) made it to the Sweet 16 without beating a major conference opponent (High Point, Princeton, Ohio, Wichita State)
Regional Final: #1 Miami (FL) 77, #3 Wichita State 69
Region 5
Top 4 Seeds: Kansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Alabama
Biggest Upset: #11 Green Bay over #6 Richmond
What happened to #1 Seed: Won the Region
Other Notes: Each of the top 4 seeds actually made the round of 64
Regional Final: #1 Kansas 72, #3 Illinois 50
Region 6
Top 4 Seeds: Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Tennessee
Biggest Upset: #18 Penn over #15 Fordham
What happened to #1 Seed: Won the Region
Other Notes: Only 3 “upsets” in the entire bracket, and they were all minor – #18 Penn over #15 Fordham, #17 Marist over #16 Holy Cross, and #9 Wright State over #8 Niagara
Regional Final: #1 Gonzaga, #2 Oklahoma State 55
Region 7
Top 4 Seeds: Florida, UCLA, Colorado, Valparaiso
Biggest Upset: #21 UNC-Greensboro over #12 Penn State
What happened to #1 Seed: Won the Region
Other Notes: #9 Purdue beat #8 Western Illinois before losing to #1 Florida. Bottom of bracket was Pac-12 heavy with Washington, UCLA, and Colorado
Regional Final: #1 Florida 76, #6 Washington 66
Region 8
Top 4 Seeds: Indiana, Creighton, Oklahoma, UMass
Biggest Upset: #20 Southern Utah over #13 Rhode Island
What happened to #1 Seed: Won the Region
Other Notes: Arizona State made it to the Regional Final in another scenario where a Pac-12 overachieved in this tournament
Regional Final: #1 Indiana, #6 Arizona State 69
Region 9
Top 4 Seeds: Michigan State, VCU, LaSalle, Kentucky
Biggest Upset: #14 UNC-Asheville over #1 Michigan State
What happened to #1 Seed: Lost to #14 UNC-Asheville in Regional Final
Other Notes: UNC-Asheville had to beat Maryland-Baltimore County in a play-in then defeated #3 LaSalle, #6 Weber State, #2 VCU, and #1 Michigan State to be this tournament’s Cinderella. #12 Texas Southern beat Kentucky to make the round of 64 before losing to Michigan State
Regional Final: #14 UNC-Asheville 56, #1 Michigan State 51
Region 10
Top 4 Seeds: Georgetown, Butler, Temple, New Mexico State
Biggest Upset: #21 Citadel over #5 Eastern Kentucky
What happened to #1 Seed: Won the Region
Other Notes: #13 Cleveland State made the round of 64 by beating New Mexico State and #21 Citadel, who won 2 big upsets to make the round of 128
Regional Final: #1 Georgetown 64, #2 Butler 58
Region 11
Top 4 Seeds: Ohio State, UNLV, Pittsburgh, Louisiana Tech
Biggest Upset: #22 South Carolina State over #11 Wake Forest
What happened to #1 Seed: Won the Region
Other Notes: #7 Utah State made it all the way to Regional Final by beating #10 Boston University, #2 UNLV, and #6 LSU
Regional Final: #1 Ohio State 58, #7 Utah State 54
Region 12
Top 4 Seeds: Marquette, Colorado State, Akron, California
Biggest Upset: #20 Jackson State over #13 Missouri State
What happened to #1 Seed: Won the Region
Other Notes: Last year I actually did a tournament like this, but the UCSB Gauchos won it all and it was so ridiculous I didn’t even post on it. This year #16 UCSB beat #17 Cal State Fullerton but they lost to #1 Marquette and I breathed a sigh of relief
Regional Final: #1 Marquette 88, #2 Colorado State 81
Region 13
Top 4 Seeds: Memphis, Saint Louis, Boise State, Villanova
Biggest Upset: #7 Rutgers over #2 Saint Louis
What happened to #1 Seed: Lost to #4 Villanova in Round of 64
Other Notes: The fact that Rutgers won this region is even more entertaining now in light of recent events (I simulated this before the story broke). I guess physically abusing your players is an effective strategy after all
Regional Final: #7 Rutgers 68, #4 Villanova 66
Region 14
Top 4 Seeds: Syracuse, Belmont, Iowa State, Bucknell
Biggest Upset: #13 Drexel over #4 Bucknell
What happened to #1 Seed: Lost to #5 Northwestern State in round of 64
Other Notes: #2, #3, and #4 all failed to make the round of 64. #2 Belmont lost to #7 Vanderbilt, #3 Iowa State lost to #6 Stony Brook, and #4 Bucknell lost to #13 Drexel
Regional Final: #5 Northwestern State 66, #6 Stony Brook 60
Region 15
Top 4 Seeds: Arizona, Kansas State, Oregon, Mississippi
Biggest Upset: #16 Cal State Northridge over #1 Arizona
What happened to #1 Seed: Lost to #16 Cal State Northridge in round of 256
Other Notes: Round of 64 participants were #8 Long Beach State, who beat #16 Cal State Northridge, #5 St. Joseph’s after beating #4 Mississippi, #3 Oregon, who got in by beating #11 Faifield, and #7 Dayton, who beat #2 Kansas State
Regional Final: #5 St. Joseph’s 85, #7 Dayton 78
Region 16
Top 4 Seeds: North Carolina, Michigan, UConn, Cincinnati
Biggest Upset: #13 Marshall over #4 Cincinnati
What happened to #1 Seed: Lost to #9 Drake in Round of 128
Other Notes: #9 Drake was joined in the round of 64 by #5 Iowa, who beat #13 Marshall, #6 Air Force, who knocked off #3 UConn, and #2 Michigan, who performed as expected
Regional Final: #2 Michigan 90, #9 Drake 52
Sweet 16 Results
Michigan 76, Duke 65
Indiana 66, UNC-Asheville 53
Rutgers 58, Miami (FL) 57
Kansas 79, Marquette 65
Gonzaga 76, Ohio State 57
St. Mary’s 79, Northwestern State 70
Georgetown 54, Florida 45
Minnesota 71, St. Joseph’s 57
Elite 8 Results
Indiana 80, Michigan 66
Kansas 68, Rutgers 59
Gonzaga 80, St. Mary’s 66
Georgetown 63, Minnesota 56
Final 4 Results
Indiana 80, Kansas 73
Gonzaga 69, Georgetown 55
Championship Game
Gonzaga 81, Indiana 66
So that does it. After that huge tournament it largely proved the selection committee correct, with 3/4 #1 seeds in real life making the Final 4 along with a #2 in real life. Only potential Champ in real life Louisville didn’t make it to even the sweet 16 of the #1 seeds. Somewhere, Adam Morrison is crying, though he is probably unaware of this tournament…it’s just what he does.
Here is a list of teams by conference by Round:
Round of 64:
Big Ten – 8
Big East – 7
Pac-12 – 7
Atlantic 10 – 6
SEC – 5
ACC – 4
Mountain West – 4
Missouri Valley – 3
WAC – 3
America East – 2
Big 12 – 2
C-USA – 2
MAC – 2
Southland – 2
WCC – 2
Big South – 1
Big West – 1
Colonial – 1
Horizon – 1
SWAC – 1
Round of 32:
Big Ten – 6
Big East – 5
Atlantic 10 – 3
ACC – 3
Pac-12 – 2
Missouri Valley – 2
WAC – 2
Big 12 – 2
WCC – 2
SEC – 1
Mountain West – 1
America East – 1
Southland – 1
Big South – 1
Sweet 16:
Big Ten – 4
Big East – 3
ACC – 2
WCC – 2
Atlantic 10 – 1
Big 12 – 1
SEC – 1
Southland – 1
Big South – 1
Elite 8:
Big Ten – 3
Big East – 2
WCC – 2
Big 12 – 1
Final 4:
Big Ten – 1
Big East – 1
WCC – 1
Big 12 – 1
Championship:
Big Ten – 1
WCC – 1
Champion:
WCC – 1
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