Jameson Taillon had a fantastic start last night vs the Boston Red Sox, and one inning in particular can tell us a lot about to what to expect from him going forward.
Jameson Taillon did something that not many Pittsburgh Pirates’ starting pitchers did last season.
He pitched seven quality innings.
The importance of pitching deep into games for a starting pitcher cannot be understated. It is also more or less a law of nature that for a pitcher to go deep into games consistently, they will need to learn how to pitch with men on base in less than ideal situations.
Taillon did just that last night in the fifth inning, and how he did it can tell us a lot about the 25-year old going forward.
You Are Now Entering The Spin Zone
Jameson Taillon has shown to be very capable at mixing his pitches well to keep hitters off balance. After running into trouble in the fifth – allowing two runners on base before recording an out – he went back to this mindset to induce two consecutive strikeouts.
But you know what’s cooler than mixing pitch types? Mixing spin rates.
A baseline taken from Statcast data: in 2016, the highest average spin rate on four-seam fastballs (minimum 100 pitches) in 2105 belonged to Andrew Bailey, who averaged 2,674 RPM on his heater. Fastballs generally play much better with higher spin in general, as this chart shows: (h/t Mike Petriello from Statcast):
Spin rate plays differently for different pitches – more on that in a moment, but this data falls exactly in line with how Taillon approached Pablo Sandoval in the fifth.
[table id=224 /]Legend: FF-Four Seam Fastball; CU-Cutter (Pitch F/X sometimes has trouble distinguishing between cutters/two-seams, etc.); CH-Changeup; FT- Two Seam Fastball
If we take a look at this more closely, we can see that Taillon stereotypically relied on higher spin rate on a four seamer to induce Sandoval’s swinging strike to end the at-bat, but before that he did a fantastic job of mixing in a four-seamer without a higher spin rate.
Was that purposeful? That is hard to say, but for now we will assume that it was. Prior to that four seamer, Taillon started the at-bat off with a low-spin cut fastball. Cut fastballs generally do better with high spin rate also, but lower spin rates are typically more forgiving for this pitch. For now, we should place more focus on the fact that Jameson Taillon was able to keep Sandoval off-balance with spin rates rather than pitch types.
How would this help him in the future? For one, if a particular pitch is not working for Taillon on a given night, he can rely on mixing spins to compensate. The reverse is also true. If the young right-hander sees that something is working against a particular lineup more than other pitches, he can feature it more without having to worry about hitters keying in on it.
Fix It In The mix
If we look at the Sandy Leon at-bat, it is more of the same, with one key difference. Here we see the same mixing of spin rates, but with a greater mix of pitches. It’s tempting to say that this represents the total package – spin rate variants and pitch type variants – but it is more accurate to say that Leon’s scouting report may show him to be more susceptible to mixing pitches than most.
This would be a good time to point out that scouting reports drive most of – if not all – of these decisions.
One important takeaway from Leon’s at-bat in particular is that Jameson Taillon’s changeup could stay steadily effective if he can continue to throw it with a high spin rate. Changeups are low-speed, and low-spin. They are designed to fool a batter, and the best changeups are often mistaken for fastballs out of the pitcher’s hand.
The highest average spin rate for a changeup (minimum 100 pitches) in 2015 belonged to new Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Daniel Hudson at 2,421 rpm. The average was just under 1,750. Taillon hit a spin rate of 2093 in the first pitch to Leon. A higher spin rate combined with lower velocity can really make a hitter look foolish, and it can especially be effective if it’s offered early in the at-bat to set the tone.
There is definitely more to Taillon’s impressive outing yesterday than everything we’ve reviewed here. He spent a lot of time up in the zone, validating what we wrote previously, which itself was backed up by David Laurila at Fangraphs. The velocity and location were there. Everything seemed to just work.
At just 25 years old, Jameson Taillon is already becoming proficient at the craft of pitching at the major-league level.
Photo Credit – Keith Allison – Flickr Creative Commons
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