A Fair Warning

The other day, my father asked me whether I thought the Red Sox were truly a playoff team this season. Without missing a beat, I gave my emphatic, bold and confident answer: no. Not to downplay the upcoming newest chapter of the Yanks-Sox storyline this weekend, an unprecedented five-game series between division rivals duking it out for a playoff spot, but this version of the Red Sox are different from the playoff teams of years past.
In 2003, 2004 and 2005, any time our pitching would falter, the offense would surely pick the team up and win a marathon contest. A four-game sweep against Tampa Bay in September of last season says it all. Look back at some of those box scores or game logs and you’ll see it was the starting pitching digging the team into a 5-0 or 6-0 hole, but the offense chipping away at the lead before a big rally later in the game. The bats were always there to save the pitching. This year? Not the story. The offense is iffy and wildly inconsistent carried by two superstars in their absolute apex. They, for the most part and besides last night, get shut down by elite pitchers like Santana and Bonderman. Different story in 2006.
But the pitching was supposed to solve that issue, right? All April and May I was raving about the teams depth and balance in every aspect of a winning ballclub, yet now the rotation and bullpen are less than dependable. Josh Beckett ace 1B? Anything but. Tim Wakefield is still on the DL. Jon Lester is learning and looks to be suffering from the loss of Jason Varitek. Does anyone truly have faith in David Wells for a playoff game? Even Curt has his poor outings. It’s a C rotation coupled with a C bullpen filled with young, developing, electric arms that will have to go through some struggles to become fully effective in later years. I understand that. That goes with what we’ve said before the 2006 season- it’s a transition year.
When Theo Epstein took the GM spot in late 2002, one of his main three goals was to develop a strong farm system to remain competitive for the long-term. That’s where he first differed with Larry Lucchino, who pushed and pushed for the Sox to sign Pedro up to five years and keep Johnny Damon at all costs, but that’s beside the point. Bill James recently came out with a study that ranked the Red Sox as the 10th best farm system in all of baseball, even with some of these young arms already in the bigs. Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Jon Papelbon = 3rd starter, setup man, 4th best reliever, closer. If you told me those roles would go with those players before the season, I would think the Yankees would be up 10+ games. In all honesty.
Instead the Sox have overacheived drastically. Two games behind the Yankees, two behind Chicago in mid-August…quite frankly, I’m stunned. Sure, we’ve been sitting pretty in first place for most of the season, but remember, this was supposed to be a transition season. With more and more money coming off the books in 07 and 08, and these young talented arms developing into studs that Theo (thankfully) did not trade before the deadline just to win in the present, the Red Sox have set themselves up for serious long-term success.
We could be 1.5 or 2.5 back heading into this weekend. Whatever. If the Sox do take three or four, I’ll be doing cartwheels. If the powerful Yankees run away with the division, I’ll shrug and hope for the wild card. If the White Sox or Twins win the Wild Card, I’ll remember the Red Sox have played past expectations and look to the bright future of a team with 120 million and talented prospects. Maybe this is the new attitude of winning a World Series. Bottom line: brace yourself for a disappointing weekend.
Still there’s hope. I’ll be tuning in- pacing the room, acting superstitious, wavering with every pitch. Because these are the Red Sox, and anything can happen.
Friday: Jason Johnson / Chien-Mien Wang
Friday: Jon Lester / Sidney Ponson
Saturday: Josh Beckett / Randy Johnson
Sunday: Curt Schilling / Mike Mussina
Monday: David Wells / Cory Lidle