Francisco Cervelli has been mashing for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018. In 61 plate appearances, the 32-year-old catcher is hitting .269/.361/.519 with two home runs, two triples, and three doubles. His wRC+ is 143. The season is still in it’s infancy. Is there any possibility for Cervelli to sustain some of the power he has shown early on?
A few things are clear. Cervelli has never played more than 130 games in a season. He’s played 100 or more games twice in his career. This is his tenth full season. Health has always been an issue.
Cervelli has never been much of a power threat. His highest slugging percentage when recording at least 300 plate appearances was .401. That came in 2015, his first season with the Pirates. His career best ISO power of .121 came last year. This year it is .250. With a career line of .274/.359/.378, Cervelli has always profiled as a catcher who gets on base. From that position, what more can you ask for? An added dose of power would be playing with house money.
What has been different this year?
Two key factors have driven Cervelli’s early season power surge.
Since the start of spring training, Cervelli has been making hard contact. So far in 2018, he has a hard contact rate of 39.5 percent. That is nearly ten percent higher than his career rate of 29.6 percent.
It also looks as though Cervelli has put in the work to elevate the ball in 2018. His current fly ball rate is 48.8 percent. His career mark is 29.8 percent. Cervelli is putting the ball on the ground less as his 2018 ground ball rate of 37.2 percent is much lower than his career rate of 49.6 percent.
Hard hit fly balls do damage and Cervelli has seen the results of that. The season is only a tenth of the way finished but this early trend is encouraging.
Can he keep it going?
Do I think Cervelli will be slugging .519 by season’s end? Probably not. His current trends of making hard contact and hitting fly balls will probably regress slightly as the season goes on. Can he slug in the .430 to .450 range? I wouldn’t rule it out.
One thing on Cervelli’s side right now is his health. His play reflects that. Cervelli is a known gamer. We’ve seen him on the field when he’s not 100 percent. He fights through injuries. In 2016, Cervelli played the majority of the season with an injured wrist. He was only able to hit one home run late in the year. Throughout his time in Pittsburgh, I would guess that Cervelli has not been at 100 percent more than he has.
Health is key…obviously
Cervelli’s biggest challenge will not be his skillset. We know he can handle the bat even if he’s not hitting for power. The key for Cervelli’s success in 2018 will be his health. It always has been. Cervelli has shown that he will play through injuries that a lot of players won’t, sometimes to the detriment of the team. He has also shown that he is, in fact, injury prone.
Will this year be different? Who knows? In the 15 games he’s played this year, we’ve seen him take foul balls to the face behind the plate. We’ve seen him get hit in the hand by a pitch. He gets dinged on a nightly basis.
In spring training, there was talk of Cervelli sitting more often to preserve his health. We haven’t really seen that early on this season. He has played in 15 of 18 games, including some day games after night games. Cervelli is on pace to play 135 games, a total he’s never reached.
If the Pirates want Cervelli to stay healthy all season, they will need to get creative. Let him DH all away games in AL parks. Get him a few starts at first base like he did in 2016. Get Elias Diaz some more starts. Make him rest even if he does not want to.
Cervelli has been a huge part of the Pirates’ early season success. He is looking like a potential four win player this season. Everything is there. He’s walking and making great contact. He has done a tremendous job with the young pitching staff. Cervelli is the heart and soul of the 2018 Pirates. His health is paramount for their future success.
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