As we approach the 2016 trade deadline in the NHL, it’s time to take a look at what the Sabres may do. First, and let’s get this out of the way, I 100% expect the Sabres to be sellers. While this doesn’t exclude a Kane type deal like they made last year, they are not going to be trading for a player that they won’t have under contract for several years, unless it is a salary dump (more on this later). The Sabres are poised to pass last seasons point total some time this week, and while they are only 3 points out of last in the league, they are also only 4 points of 21st. They are on pace to have four different 20 goal scorers, have found a #1 defenseman, and have a young goalie who has shown a few flashes. The roster is not complete however.
Simply letting the roster age and develop won’t likely result in the championship many are hoping for. They will to sign a few free agents, draft very well, and perhaps make a few trades. Right now the farm is actually pretty bare. The Sabres have one of the lowest rated farm systems right now. Some of this is a product of them playing lots of young guys in Buffalo, and some of it is due to roster moves they have previously made. Therefore, I expect any trades that are made to be more about depth than really bring a top guy back.
The UFAs
The first types of guys you always have to look at when it comes to trades are unrestricted free agents. The Sabres currently have 5 such guys on their roster. Chad Johnson, Mike Weber, Jamie McGinn, David Legwand, and Carlo Colaiacovo. I think everyone outside of McGinn, Buffalo would gladly take anything for, whether it be a young AHL type player, or even a very late round draft pick. Believe it or not, Johnson may bring the most in return, as you can never have too much goaltending, and a contending team with an injury would likely be willing to act to bring in a guy with some NHL experience. This becomes especially true since Ullmark didn’t look lost in his NHL stint earlier this year. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Weber is gone. Again, a contending team would likely welcome his depth for a playoff run, and a mid-round pick or prospect would likely be enough to get either of these two from Tim Murray. The big question is McGinn right now. This website has even posted a point-counterpoint on keeping or trading him.
At his current pace, McGinn is on pace for 17G and 19A. Some of this is likely due to the fact that he is on a team that really struggles to consistently score, so for purposes on this, we will consider him a 20G scorer. In looking at last year’s deadline, McGinn is probably worth a 2nd round pick, or a 3rd round pick and a young AHL type player. I would gladly take the 2nd rounder, and if the team truly wants to keep him, and I’ve yet to really read anything that makes me think they are trying hard to sign him to an extension, try in the offseason to resign. I just haven’t seen enough from McGinn to make me think he’s irreplaceable. While a team like Buffalo does need some of these guys to eventually contend, I’m just not ready to hold onto him because he hasn’t been awful.
The RFAs
Buffalo wants to control players for as long as possible, and with the NHL rules set up to reward teams who lose RFAs, I don’t expect the Sabres to actively seek to trade these guys, unless someone is willing to severely overpay. Several of the young core are going to be RFAs. This includes McCabe, Risto, Larsson, and Zemgus. These guys aren’t going anywhere. Deslauriers and Foligno, while not really part of the almost untouchable core, are also RFAs unlikely to be moved. Both provide 4th line grit and toughness, but I’m not sure how much a contending team would really want to give up for guys who are not playoff tested. I don’t expect any of these guys to move.
The guys under contract
There are 6 guys under contract who I would not be shocked if they are traded. I will discuss them in reverse order starting with the “least likely” to the “most likely” in my opinion. I don’t expect them to active try and trade Bogo, but if a team came calling, I think they would listen. He is under team control for 4 more seasons, but at a hefty price tag of about 5.5 per. He is young and coming off an injury, but I’m not sure Buffalo has seen enough to think they have a #1 D worth that much money. If they had a chance to get a first, or a second and a legit young D in return, I think they make that trade.
I would next list Gorges and Franson. Again, I don’t expect the Sabres to actively seek to trade either of these guys. Both are middle of the pack D, and you just can’t trade away every veteran on the team. Neither of these guys will be around when things hopefully get good, but again, if someone is willing to really overpay, you make that trade. Of the two, Franson is probably the most likely to go due to his past PP experiences.
The next guy on my list of players to be traded is Brain Gionta. This wouldn’t shock me for several reasons. He is a playoff tested 36-year-old center who can play those difficult PK and defensive zone minutes. The other thing this accomplishes is it makes it easy to transition the captaincy over to ROR where it belongs at this point. I know Gionta signed with Buffalo specifically so he could finish his career close to home, and he also knew what he was signing up for in terms of the rebuild. BUT, if a team with a real chance at a cup came calling, I think Gionta (I say Gionta, because I think GMTM would leave it up to him) would at least consider it. What could you get in return? Probably not much, maybe a bottom 6/AHL guy or a 3-4 round pick.
Which brings me to the two guys under contract I actually expect to see traded. This is where Matt Moulson comes in. A 32 year old having about the worst year of his career, and under contract for 3 more seasons. You may be thinking to yourself, this guy is completely untradeable, why is he on the list. Until last week, I would’ve agreed with you, but I just saw Toronto dump Phaneuf. Phaneuf had what most people considered the worst contract in the NHL and the Leafs were able to dump him for a group of UFA who will give them lots of cap space (hello Stamkos). If they Sabres could get anything, and I mean anything, they make the deal. If it’s a career AHL guy, a 7th round pick, a bag of pucks, I believe they say yes simply to get out of this contract.
One more player left, and behind McGinn, they guy I most expect to be traded is Tyler Ennis (assuming they can get him on the ice, nobody wants a player with a concussion). Ennis is still under contract for three more years at an affordable price and is just 26 years old. He has scored 20+ goals three times in his career, including doing it on two of the worst non-expansion teams the NHL has ever seen. There are a few reasons here, Ennis is a LW, and this is a position the Sabres have too many players at right now. His size is also not prototypical, so a guy of his stature is always going to be a risk in my opinion, finally, he has proven he can produce at the NHL level and recently. If Buffalo can get a young D, or a first round pick for Ennis and a later pick, I think they do this. There have been “quiet” rumors that Buffalo has been shopping him, and when you consider his age, contract, and past production, it completely makes sense. Again, the only thing working against this trade right now is his health.
There you have it, another season with the Sabres being sellers. I think this year will be different, as I don’t expect them to sell just to put the worst possible team out on the ice and tank like previous years. Those years were all about dumping guys who could accidentally help them win a game. This deadline will be about potentially getting rid of guys who won’t be here in 2-3 years anyway, and replacing them with guys who could contribute at the NHL level as early as next season.
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