A Mound of Clay

David Ortiz is the most charismatic hitter the Red Sox have had since Yaz.
I interviewed Jonathan Papelbon while in Double-A and witnessed his final start for Portland.
Jason Varitek has been a steadying influence behind the plate and when he hangs it up will probably be considered the captain of the All-Red Sox team.
But my favorite player is a 22-year old who has a career innings total of 22.2 and was the 42nd pick in the 2005 draft, a conditional first-round pick for losing Pedro Martinez to the New York Mets (can’t wait to see who our conditional first-rounder for Eric Gagne is next year).
Buchholz, at the age of 23, has an absolutely filthy curveball and changeup. It’s filthy beyond belief and it is those pitches that make him a better pitcher than Phil Hughes (and Keith Law of ESPN concurs). With a power fastball (both four-seam and two-seam) and a slider mixed in, he is a weapon.
Throwing a no-hitter in his second start and showing off his goofy grin, Buchholz quickly endeared himself to Sox faithful. With a thin frame, he also doesn’t look like a baseball player. While he will undoubtedly fill out, it’s his physique that is baffling: it’s an array of bones splaying all over the place and then uncorking a pitch that defies belief. It is not often you see a pitcher with the kind of secondary pitches Buchholz has — once in a generation.
While his frame poses an injury risk, his future is tremendously bright, especially in the hands of Red Sox staff who shut him down late September and refused to pitch him in October so he would have a future.
Buchholz’s career currently resides at a 3-1 record and 1.59 ERA in 22.2 IP. Hailing from Texas, he’s the best pitching prospect to emerge from the Sox system since (cringe) Roger Clemens. We can only hope his career takes a different path than Clemens, but after seeing Buchholz work his magic for the Red Sox, I am convinced he is the next Clemens; the next Pedro Martinez.
Buchholz has won This Year in Baseball’s Single-Game Performance of the Year for throwing a no-hitter during a game he wasn’t supposed to start. (Tim Wakefield had back/shoulder woes on Aug. 31 so Julian Tavarez took his place and Buchholz slid in to September 1.)
I am absolutely thrilled that Buchholz is not part of the Red Sox talks for Johan Santana. Early rumors had the Red Sox offering one of the Sox’s big three young’uns: Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Buchholz for Johan Santana. Since then, I have been relieved to hear absolutely zero mention of Buchholz’s name in these rumors: a sign that I take to be that the Red Sox brass knows what I know: this guy is special.
Call me crazy, but if Minnesota Twins’ GM Bill Smith rang Theo’s phone and offered Johan straight up for Buchholz, I’d advise Theo to politely decline.
What can we expect in 2008?
Well, considering that the Red Sox have a full rotation, (Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield) Buchholz will likely open the season at Triple-A on a strict pitch count (much like Lester did at the opening of 2007) and should be the first option up in case of injury to plug a hole in the rotation. Due to normal attrition, Buchholz could pass 10 starts and provide a solid body of work to analyze beyond his 22.2 IP, 14 H, 10 BB (the lone red flag but not a concern if you draw on minor league numbers) and 22 K.
CHONE projections show that Buchholz is predicted to pitch 107 innings, allowing 109 hits, 45 walks, (a tad high, I think) 103 Ks and a 4.46 ERA. By trending the walks down about 10, you get an ERA close to 4.00 than 4.46, which I think is quite reasonable for a 23-year old experiencing his second year in the big leagues. That might just be his last over 4.00 ERA for a long time just like Pedro Martinez’s 3.90 ERA in 2004 represented a career high and first over 3.00 ERA (2.89 to be exact) since 1996. (How filthy was Pedro? Goodness.)
In 2008, Clay will continue to mature and hone his pitches. Tighten up his control and show everyone just how crazy his secondary pitches are. When a Double-A pitcher outduels Roger Clemens, you know you have something special.
For the next 20 years, Red Sox fans may experience a mound of Clay… and no, we’re not talking clay dirt. We’re talking Clay Buchholz.