A Recent History of One Run Affairs

In a complete reversal of the past few seasons, the Indians must have been so excited to see the Tigers come to town on May 3rd. In their previous three game series in late April, the Indians swept Detroit with a run differential of 18 to 5. After the first 2-1 win, the Indians scored four runs for each one by the Tigers in the final two games.

After that, things changed. Each of the next six games against Minnesota and Philadelphia were decided by exactly one run as the Tribe went 1-5 against two of the worst teams in baseball. The run differential in those six games, negative four, was significantly less than the 13+ in three games against Detroit. In fact, on the year the Indians have a differential of +9 despite being under .500.

One run games are a constant in baseball with a total of 707 in the 2,429 (29%) games from last year. Even so, six in a row is excessive and unprecedented in the reign of Terry Francona, during which time the Indians had never before had more than four in a row. Overall, the Indians have already played 11 one run games of their first 23, a pretty incredible total (almost 48%). In fact, last year, they had a total of just 32 for the entire season (the White Sox had the most with 59).

I’m not going to go deep into whether or not one run games are completely luck based (fangraph’s Jesse Wolfersberger did that years ago about the Orioles), but there are definitely a certain profile of a team that will play in one run games more often. Essentially, one run games are more likely in low scoring games for simple math reasons (if two teams are equally poor at scoring runs, they will probably score 0, 1, 2 or 3 runs, while if they are equally proficient, they will score somewhere from five through ten and chances are more likely that the two teams will align with the fewer options of run totals). Because of this teams who score rarely and have a great pitching staff are the most likely to see the most one run games.

The 2015 White Sox were the perfect example of this. Their light offense finished the season third to last in Major League Baseball in total runs scored and last in the American League in OPS while their pitching staff and defense allowed just 701 runs scored, tenth in the AL, but not extremely far off from their 622 runs scored.

The Indians are essentially roaming the same path (although with a better overall team) this year. Twenty MLB teams scored 100 runs before the Indians and similarly, they are tied for sixth best in baseball in runs allowed with 90. Neither of these facets of the team should be a surprise to Tribe fans. Over the past few years, the Indians have continually been improving the pitching staff and defense at the detriment to the offense. While the current line-up is capable of scoring when all things go right (they’ve scored ten once and seven four times), the more probable outcome is a low scoring game and they averaged just 4.3 runs per game over their first 23 (all stats through the Indians first 23 games this year).

For the sake of reference, the above chart shows the Indians total number of games decided by any number of runs since Francona took over the Tribe dugout. For further context, below is their winning percent is such games.

Going back to the Fangraphs piece, Wolfersberger found three significant attributes that helped a team become more likely to succeed in one run games: relievers strike out rate, relievers walk rate and hitter’s ISO. If this is a surprise to anyone, I’m not sure what games you have been watching. If a game is decided by one run, chances are it was a tie or a one run lead going late into the game. In games like this, teams that have a high powered strike out heavy bullpen are going to generally much more successful. In these situations, a single home run provides a greater difference in the game than at any other time, so a home run is worth significantly more than a couple singles or a double.

The Indians have had a solid bullpen in each of those seasons, always with a similar K-Rate (22.5%, 23.5% and 23% from 2013 through 2015), walk rate (10%, 8.6% and 7.9%) and average against (.235, .230 and .239). The team’s offensive power, however, has been very variable. In 2013, the Indians hit 171 home runs with an ISO of .155, helping them to win a significantly greater amount of one run games than would normally be expected. In 2014, that number dropped to 142 and essentially stayed the same at 141 in 2015. In both of these seasons, the Indians fell closer to .500 in one run games.

The good news for this year, is that chances are the early 36% winning percent is a complete abberation. The numbers from the bullpen aren’t quite as good as those from the previous three years, but the power numbers are better than they have been since 2013. Currently, the Indians are on pace for just under a home run per game with a .149 ISO. Chances are, things will turn around in the future in one run games, which is a good thing because their total output from pitching and offense means they will likely have quite a few more. The past week was just an unlucky period against a couple teams who, while they are not better overall, may be slightly better suited for low scoring games than the Indians thanks to slightly greater power and a higher K rate. More importantly, the Indians are consistently winning any games that are blow outs, a more reliable judge of the team’s talent overall.