On the first of the month, Jeremy Lamb and the Charlotte Hornets used the extra hour of sleep to come to terms on a contract extension, with the swingman agreeing to a deal for three years and $21 million before the November 2nd deadline. In a land of skyrocketing payrolls and players like Harrison Barnes turning down contracts worth more than three times as much, was this move wise for Lamb? Was it wise for the Hornets, who had only seen Lamb play two regular season games for them? While a true understanding of those answers will only come years from now, the past, and perhaps present, should provide some evidence for one side or the other.
How We Got Here
Lamb attended the University of Connecticut, starring alongside Kemba Walker during a surprising run to the national title during his freshman year in 2011. The following year, without Walker, Lamb struggled in the lead role and UConn bowed out early in the tournament. NBA teams, uncertain of Lamb’s ultimate upside, let him slip to the end of the lottery where he was selected 12th overall by Houston. Lamb would not play a single minute for the Rockets, however, as he was traded in the package for James Harden, and he would play the next three seasons for the Oklahoma City Thunder, averaging about 15 minutes a game as a reserve swingman behind players such as Thabo Sefolosha, Anthony Morrow, Kevin Martin, and Kevin Durant. This offseason the Thunder, seeking to offload salary, sent him to Charlotte to be reunited with Kemba Walker on the Hornets.
How Has He Played? The Narrative Side
Lamb was a key piece of the trade for James Harden, the talented young player with the upside to replace Harden as the bench scorer and ball-handler. At the time of the deal, analysts could look at the package and see a clear line of thought from the Thunder. Kevin Martin would fill in for the first season or two as the backcourt scorer while Lamb grew into the role, and then he would ultimately start alongside Westbrook and Durant. Lamb did ultimately notch a few starts for the Thunder, but only when both Westbrook and Durant were out with injuries at the start of last season. While the Thunder have kept a steady stream of players on the roster to fill that 2-guard spot, the truth is that Lamb never proved ready for that role, and that is why the Thunder ultimately moved on from him. The opportunity was there for Lamb, and he never seized it.
How Has He Played? The Numbers Side
Lamb’s counting stats are poor, as he has never earned enough minutes to accrue man; his sophomore season as a regular part of the rotation only saw him average 19 minutes a game, and that season him set his career marks in points (8.5), rebounds (2.1), assists (1.5), and three-pointers made (1.1) and attempted (3.2) per game. Despite carving out a larger role at the start of last season with Westbrook and Durant injured, he was pushed to the back of the rotation for the remainder of the year, and his stats all suffered. However, a deeper look shows some optimism, at least on a few levels. As a scorer Lamb shows some potential in a larger role; he put up almost 17 points per 36 minutes last year; this compares favorably with some of his compatriots from the 2012 draft such as Bradley Beal (16.4 per 36), Dion Waiters (15.1), Terrence Ross (13.9), and Evan Fournier (15.1). Lamb is an above average rebounder for his position, has shot a decent 35 percent from long range over his career, and at 23 still has room to grow.
However, the numbers also uncover a lot of gaping weaknesses in Lamb’s game, weaknesses that made OKC cut ties completely. Last season Lamb ranked 61st at his position in ESPN’s RPM stat, just behind names like “C.J. Wilcox” and “Hollis Thompson” (although interestingly just ahead of Arron Afflalo – enjoy New York!). Lamb was slightly below average in offensive advanced stats while in OKC, and well below average in defensive metrics. He only shot 41 percent from the floor overall last season, and attempted only one free throw a game. He was below average in steals, blocks, assists, and fouls. Lamb is a decent shooter, but the other parts of his game just have not materialized.
Who Won?
While it may sound like Charlotte just locked themselves into a deal with a fringe rotation player, that doesn’t take into account the context. Lamb’s seven million a year deal amounts to 8 percent of next year’s cap, and slightly over six percent the year after. For a rotation player with upside, that’s a pittance. And Lamb’s play thus far this year, even for a 2-3 Hornets team, has seemed improved, with his per-minute stats all increasing as he has shot a solid 50% from distance. His first game after signing the extension, Tuesday’s blowout of Chicago, saw Lamb flash exactly the scoring potential the Hornets see in the wing. Lamb led Charlotte in scoring with 20 points on 9-10 shooting, with a pair of triples, four rebounds, three assists, and two steals in twenty-six minutes. He followed that up with a 7-11 showing on Thursday, another dominant win over the Dallas Mavericks. In four games this season players have shot slightly worse while defended by Lamb than they normally would. If Steve Clifford’s defensive scheme can make Lamb even an average defender, then his scoring punch could make him a valuable bench wing for this team moving forward.
Lamb, unsure of a future in the NBA, took the security of an extension to stay in Charlotte alongside his former teammate Kemba Walker. But Charlotte locked up a young, athletic wing who could prove to be a key rotation piece for them down the road for less money than Aron Baynes received from Detroit to be a fifth big. If Lamb can supplement his scoring and rebounding with some assists and steals, find his place in the defensive scheme, and discover how to draw fouls, this deal goes from a harmless evaluation of a young player and turns into an absolute steal. With Kidd-Gilchrist out for the season and only PJ Hairston ahead of him on the depth chart, this year could prove an opportunity to see if Lamb is more than he has appeared. Well worth the gamble for Charlotte.
Ed’s note: This was written before Charlotte’s loss against the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
