Losing Bronson Arroyo may not hurt on a talent level. We had seven starting pitchers and was going to use him in middle relief. He’s shown to be inconsistent from game to game – inning to inning, and posted a 4.51 ERA last year.
Nevertheless, he was someone we counted on. He consistently got on the mound every fifth day. He consistently gave it his all and led the Sox in quality starts last year. More importantly, he loved Boston, wanted to stay, and was loyal to the club. He signed a hometown-discount deal in January, knowing he was going to work in middle relief. It was $11.25 million for 3 years, and he signed it, hoping he would not be traded.
As Arroyo’s agent, Gregg Clifton, said: “We’re disappointed, as is Bronson, that our prediction has come true. After taking a discounted deal to remain with the Red Sox, he will not throw one pitch under that deal as a member of the Red Sox. We certainly respect the Red Sox’s right to run their business. I understand their desire to always improve their team.”
Sounds like the right thing to say, and Theo also noted that he had told Arroyo that he could not guarantee he would not be traded. However, the Red Sox still are likely to take a hit for this in regards to future deals. If even one current or future Red Sox player is affected by this and decided not to allow his deal to include a hometown discount, it could mean millions. It could mean the difference between staying pat or acquiring a reliever at the trade deadline.
Nevertheless, it’s done. What have we gotten in return? Wily Mo Pena, dangerous with the bat – but more so against lefties. Dangerous, nonethless, as David Ortiz made mention that he believes Pena has more power than even Big Papi himself.
As for the concerns that Pena can’t walk enough, and strikes out too much, Theo had this to say:
“Pena strikes out on a rate basis more than anyone else in the big leagues. There is precedent for those (type of) players developing a little bit more discipline, increasing their walk rate and becoming better all-around hitters as they adjust to the big leagues.”
Pena’s career so far exhibits a ~0.50 Isolated Eye differential at age 24. I’ve made mention before on this site that a good rule of thumb to determine whether one has a good eye or not is 0.60, so he’s close.
I’m not saying that he’s going to suddenly blossom into someone with judicious patience to take a walk, but I’m not going to complain if he only tops out at .275/.335 if it means he hits 40 dingers for us and 100-plus RBIs. Pena could succeed Nixon as the Sox’s rightfielder in 2007 should Nixon depart as a free agent. For that to happen, Pena’s going to have to improve his abilities against right-handed pitchers. One can only hope that David Ortiz and Ron Jackson will be able to start Pena on the path to stardom. Still only 24, it’s not too late for Pena to become a force. Heck, he already is, he just has difficulty getting contact on the ball against righties.
Pena should be able to fill in behind Coco Crisp in center, Manny in left, and platoon with Nixon. We’re looking at maybe 300-400 at-bats, and he could hit over 20 homeruns. Pena is essentially Manny Ramirez against lefties, so this may also discourage managers from bringing in left-handed pitchers to face off against Nixon, for Pena can pinch-hit.
This means that Adam Stern is basically a lock to head to Pawtucket once his 18 days of being on the major league roster is over. After that, we’ll have a roster spot open. Could that mean the addition of Dustan Mohr? Of Juan Gonzalez? That would be five outfielders and two first-basemen with one full-time DH. Two middle infielders with a backup, a third baseman, two catchers. I would much prefer to keep it at four outfielders and have Tony Graffanino hang around because he adds increased versatality, and we can keep Gonzalez down until we absolutely, positively, need him – because having just one middle infield backup scares me and gives me visions of former Sox Ricky Gutierrez. That’s a scary vision.
Let’s not forget how all the trades have now shaken out, by the way. Here’s how all the trades look like together:
TRADE:
Bronson Arroyo, Matt Ciaramella, Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Doug Mirabelli, Hanley Ramirez, Edgar Renteria, Anibal Sanchez, Kelly Shoppach, a PTBNL, and cash
ACQUIRE:
Josh Bard, Josh Beckett, Coco Crisp, Mark Loretta, Mike Lowell, Wily Mo Pena, David Riske, Jermaine Van Buren
So, we traded a middle reliever who had a 4.51 ERA as a starter next year (although I think it’ll go down in the NL, I’m hoping 3.50 – and yes, I’m pulling for Arroyo in Cincy), someone not likely to ever make the majors as an outfielder, two minor league relief prospects, a backup catcher, a possible stud shortstop in Hanley, a breaking-down shortstop in Edgar, a possible stud starter in Anibal, and a young backup catcher who’s unproven. The PTBNL is undetermined and cash? We’ve got cash.
We get a backup catcher, someone who outhit Johnny Damon in a worse park last year, a starting second baseman, a starting third-baseman (who may either be great, average, or bad, but let’s not be picky here), a tremendous power prospect, a fine reliever (better than Mota for sure), and the 2005 minor league reliever of the year.
Basically, the “loss” of Andy Marte stings a lot less when you find a replacement in Pena and put all the trades together. Speaking of the Arroyo/Pena trade…
Overall, based on talent and need, this was a trade we needed to make, and a trade I think we won. On the human and loyalty front … well, I think Theo said it best:
“I really admire Bronson, but if I allowed my personal feelings … (to) affect our judgment in what we thought was best for the organization, then I wouldn’t be doing my job.”
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