FO’s opponent adjustments are waaaaay out of wack this year.
How are Peyton Manning and Drew Brees not, in some order, 1-2? The answer is strength of schedule. The difference between Brady’s DVOA and VOA (our DVOA statistic, minus the defensive adjustments) is 9.5 percentage points, the largest such figure in the league for any quarterback with more than 100 attempts. That makes sense when you look at Brady’s schedule: Over the course of the season, the Patriots played the pass defenses DVOA ranked first (the Jets, who they played twice), second (Panthers), third (Bills, again twice), fifth (Broncos), sixth (Ravens, with a second matchup this weekend) and ninth (Saints). That’s half a season against defenses ranked in the top ten, plus two games against the defense ranked 11th (Dolphins). Brady had only one game against a pass defense ranked in the bottom five. Based on our numbers, Brady played the hardest schedule of pass defenses of any quarterback in the last 15 years.
If we ranked the quarterbacks by YAR — without opponent adjustments — Manning would be first, Brees would be second, and Brady would fall to sixth. The numbers suggest that it was a landmark year for quarterbacks; the DYAR totals of Brady, Rivers, Manning, and Brees are all high enough to rank amongst the top ten passing seasons since 1993 (the first season in our database).
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