Cincinnati stands atop the American Athletic Conference’s baseball landscape with a 4-2 record heading into the third weekend of conference play. Though the Bearcats lead the AAC by a half game over the next best team, they are hardly the conference’s best bet for crowning honors come season’s end.
[table id=8 /]In consecutive weekend series, Cincinnati has beaten South Florida and UConn — the seventh and eighth place teams in the AAC standings — by winning two out of three games. In beating two teams whose average RPI ranks outside the top third of 300 Division 1 baseball programs, the Bearcats have managed to claim the league’s top record.
As the Bearcats league schedule begins to increase in difficulty, however, it will be much harder for the team to maintain their minuscule grasp on the conference’s top spot.
Only team ahead of #Tulane (3-1) in AAC standings is Cincinnati (4-1), which was picked last in league and comes to Turchin next weekend.
— Guerry Smith (@Guersmith) April 10, 2016
This weekend the Bearcats head to New Orleans to face the second place Tulane baseball team. While heading to New Orleans is normally cause for jubilation, the Bearcats would be wise to approach their pending road trip with a healthy touch of trepidation.
Tulane will enter the Bearcat-Green Wave foray with the league’s second-best conference record and the AAC’s second-best RPI. While seemingly second place everywhere else, the Green Wave are certainly first in the hearts of their New Orleanian fans where Tulane has amassed a 15-3 record at Turchin Stadium.
If Cincinnati could somehow pull out a series victory in the Crescent City then the Bearcats might be more seriously considered for postseason honors; their 1-10 record versus top 50 RPI teams seems to scream “don’t trust us against top competition.”
The Massey Ratings give Cincinnati only a 25 percent chance of winning any particular game this weekend on the road against Tulane. It should be noted, however, that the Bearcats statistics in conference games is slightly better –both hitting and pitching — than their Green Wave counterparts. Though, neither have been good.
East Carolina, currently third in the AAC standings, will be looking to improve upon its .500 record in conference play as they take on the league’s lowest RPI team, Memphis. The Tigers sub-.500 record, both in conference play and overall, does not strike fear in the heart of the Pirates. What may give the East Carolina team a heart attack is the sheer excitement of facing a team whose league pitching (Team ERA of 4.25) and hitting (Team Batting Average of .207) is last and second-to-last, respectively.
The Pirates will have to wait to face the current AAC top dog, Cincinnati, for another two weeks when the Bearcats will bring their 6th-ranked conference offense (Team Batting Average of .229) to face the league’s best pitching attack.
Houston, currently tied for third in the AAC standings and holding league’s third highest RPI (53), heads to Storrs this weekend to face UConn in what will surely be an elimination game for fourth place in conference play.
If the Huskies are unable to win two out of three at home against the Cougars, their hopes of finishing in the top half of the league go downhill fast. The team still has a home-and-away series left to play — six games total — with East Carolina.
As for Houston, it still has a similar six game set remaining with Tulane.
Neither Houston nor Connecticut can afford to lose this upcoming tete-a-tete. Something’s gotta give.
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