The AAC has hardly portrayed itself in a positive light this season, with only a couple of teams batting above average. There are a myriad of reasons for this, but one reason in particular stands out above all else – offense, or lack thereof. SMU automatically springs to mind, but almost every team other than ECU has their struggles. What is the cause of this malaise, and who are the least offensive teams in the conference?
Cincinnati Bearcats
When Cincinnati put 58 points on Toledo behind the masterful passing of Gunner Kiel in Week 3 (or 1 in its case), expectations were heightened. When Kiel continued to perform, throwing 14 TDs over the first three games, despite the big loss to Ohio State, everyone overlooked the big concerns. When former whipping boy Memphis came to town and took the Bearcats to the woodshed, a longer look was needed.
The major concern was the lack of a running game. The Bearcats average just 104 yards on the ground so far, with 148 coming against the Rockets. With Cincinnati unable to get things going on the ground, it will be easy for teams to tee off on Kiel, or Legaux, if Kiel misses additional time. To put the final stamp on the Bearcats rushing woes, they ran three times on third and short, and made one first down.
Connecticut Huskies
One of the worst offenders for AAC offensive ineptitude, the Huskies are averaging just 14.8 points per game through five outings. Even worse, 12 of those 74 points have come from defense and special teams, and 18 from field goals. UConn has converted just 30.1 percent of its 73 third-down conversions, and has scored only seven times in 13 red zone trips.
Now for the good news. Actually, there is no good news. The running game is averaging 78 yards per game, at just 2.2 yards per carry, and they’ve scored only once on the ground. The passing game isn’t much better, with passers completing just 52.7 percent and averaging just 186 yards passing per game. The QBs have thrown just five TDs and five interceptions. Factor in 20 sacks allowed, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest that Connecticut may need some offensive line help. (For starters.)
East Carolina Pirates
Why even bother? So far, so awesome. They are the shining beacon on offense in the AAC, and it’s their first season.
Houston Cougars
Houston has been a powerhouse for some time now, and at first glance, look to have continued in that vein to a lesser degree this season. Don’t believe it for a second though, as the Cougars are a pale shadow of their former selves.
Take the running attack. UH is averaging a respectable 155 yards per game, or 775 yards for the year. But in two of those games, Grambling State and UNLV, the Cougars totalled 674 yards! Against real live opposition, Houston has gained 101 rushing yards.
Then there’s the passing attack. John O’Korn was great in the second-half comeback attempt against BYU, but has been even more inconsistent than his freshman year overall. Between himself and Greg Ward Jr., who also plays receiver, the pair have completed just 52.2 percent of their passes, and are averaging 5.5 yards per attempt, which won’t get it done, particularly with a line that has allowed 12 sacks and struggled to get the running game going.
Don’t forget turnovers. O’Korn had a horseshoe up his butt at times last season, and really should have thrown more than 10 interceptions. This season, he’s not so lucky. Houston’s passers have combined for six TD and eight interceptions, and the team has also coughed up five fumbles. It’s a testament to the Cougar defense that it still has a +1 turnover margin.
Finally – we’re not quite finished – the Cougars have struggled to maintain drives, holding the ball for just 27:44 per game and converting just over a third over the third and fourth downs. They’ve also had a whopping 42 penalties. Also they have only converted 20-of-26 red zone trips, which is on the wrong side of average, and nine of those scores were field goals. Eleven touchdowns in 26 red zone trips? That does not bode well for a struggling offense.
Memphis Tigers
If you want to judge Memphis by its struggles against Ole Miss, go right ahead, but you’re selling it very short. Even including the three points against the Rebels, the Tigers are averaging 35.6 points per game, and are displaying some balance on offense. Memphis is averaging 210 rushing yards per game, which would be much higher if not for the mere 23 yards gained against Mississippi.
Paxton Lynch is becoming a force as a passer, completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,158 yards and seven TDs, with just three interceptions, although the Tigers average just under 40 percent on third-down conversions, a figure that could be higher. Part of this is conservative play-calling, with 28 runs called on 3rd-and-4 or longer, and they could afford to be conservative in three of their games.
To finish on a high, Memphis has converted an excellent 22-of-24 red zone opportunities, and 17 have been TDs. For those who may wish to point out the Ole Miss game again, bear one thing in mind – the Tigers won’t play a team of their ability again this season. If they can keep up their form, the Pirates better watch their backs.
SMU Mustangs
Whether SMU is the worst team in the nation is open to debate, but without a shadow of a doubt it has the worst offense right now. Through five games, the Mustangs have scored 36 points. Not averaged, scored. Or to put it in perspective, barely more than Memphis is averaging. I could make this a very short post and just write “after Tom Mason stepped in when June Jones resigned, his first task as head coach was to hire a new offensive line coach.” The SMU offensive line has, for want of a more tactful word, been terrible.
The running game has been a non-factor so far, averaging just 45 yards per game, a number that hasn’t been helped by the ridiculous 31 sacks allowed. Last year, through a full season, 88 teams allowed less. The passing attack hasn’t much look either, with four different quarterbacks combining to complete 54.7 percent of their passes for 991 yards, three touchdowns and interceptions. The offense as a whole is averaging 3.4 yards per play, or less than 108 FBS teams average per rush this season.
Somehow, the Mustangs have managed to control possession for 30:35 this season, despite converting just 23.8 percent of their third downs. They’ve made just 10-of-20 fourth downs, and turned the ball over 12 times. The most telling stat for the Mustangs so far – they’ve converted 70 percent of their red zone chances, but that’s just 10 opportunities. TEN! And three were field goals.
There is some hope on the horizon as the Mustangs put 24 on East Carolina last weekend, with walk-on Garrett Krstich showing some ability to move the ball, but the Mustangs have a mountain to climb to even reach mediocrity as an offense.
South Florida Bulls
Way back in Week 1, when freshman running back Marlon Mack gouged Western Carolina to the tune of 275 yards and four touchdowns, many felt that the Bulls finally had a running back who was of the caliber of Andre Hall, and they were right. The problem was, that’s basically all the Bulls have on offense. Teams have loaded up on Mack, and over the next four games, he’s picked up just 261 yards and a score on 75 carries.
The running game has found it heavy sledding, and the passing game doesn’t look like it’s going to become even average any time soon. Mike White and Steven Bench have split the majority of the snaps, and neither have gotten it done. How poor has the passing game been? Check out a 39.7 completion percentage for an average of 148 yards per game, two touchdowns and six interceptions. Surprisingly, 28 of their 48 completions have been 15 yards or more, so perhaps working on the short passing attack could benefit. The line has only given up seven sacks, or roughly what SMU allows per game.
The offense as a whole is credited with just 19.4 points per game, with two defensive touchdowns and seven field goals. Key indicators for me, in case you haven’t noticed, are third-down conversion rate (34.8 percent) and red zone conversion (9-of-10). Of their red zone scores, six were field goals. Less of an issue in some cases, but not here, is time of possession, and the Bulls have held onto the ball for just under 27 minutes per game.
The Bulls’ defense is okay, but a better offense could see them pick up some more wins.
Temple Owls
Temple served notice when they put a beatdown on Vanderbilt in the opening week of the season, and haven’t let up, losing only a close one to Navy en route to its 3-1 record. The Owls average 39 points per game, and benefit somewhat from a defense and special teams that has accounted for an impressive seven TDs already. It’s probably just as well, as the offense hasn’t exactly excelled so far.
The passing attack, led by P.J. Walker, has been solid, averaging 214 yards per game at a 63.8 completion percentage, with seven touchdowns and just three interceptions. However, they’ve been less than impressive on third down, converting just 27.8 percent, with just nine first downs coming through the air. Sooner or later, the Owls will have to keep moving the chains, especially with the schedule actually getting tougher.
The running attack has been a problem, with no back really standing out, unless you include Walker. Temple averages just 128 yards per game, with five TDs (two by Walker). They’ve been quite effective on third and short, making 5-of-8 attempts, but the unit as a whole lacks explosion, with just 14 runs over 10 yards. This has been an issue in the red zone. The Owls have completed on 15-of-18 trips, but six have been field goals.
Tulane Green Wave
The Tulane offense has been something of a conundrum. At times, the unit, particularly the running game, has been explosive; at others, they trip over their own feet. The Green Wave average 171 yards on the ground, and have run for seven TDs. Sherman Badie has been exciting to watch, but he can’t carry the load, nor can the decent crew of running backs behind him.
Redshirt freshman Tanner Lee has had a tough time at quarterback. After a bright start against Tulsa, Lee has regressed, before injury ruled him out during the Rutgers game. Tulane quarterbacks have completed 48.9 percent of their passes for 1,043 yards with eight TDs and 10 interceptions. The offensive line has allowed 12 sacks, all over the last four games, and has given up eight quarterback pressures, so Lee’s struggles haven’t been all his own doing.
The Wave have had problems on third down, converting just 36.5 percent, and have had problems with penalties too, racking up a hefty 51 through five games. Also worrying, is converting just 3-of-12 fourth downs, and 10-of-17 forays inside the opponents’ 20. Only one of those was a field goal, but it must be noted that Tulane have only managed to convert on 1-of-5 field goal attempts.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulsa is only averaging 23.4 yards per game, but for some reason I feel a little more confident it will break through before many of its conference mates. It won’t matter a whole lot, as its defense has a lot further to go.
Dane Evans is the Golden Hurricane quarterback, and he’s had his moments this season, but just can’t seem to put it all together. So far, Tulsa QBs have averaged 288 yards passing per game with nine TDs, but have completed just 53.5 percent of their attempts, and have thrown 10 interceptions. Evans can be flaky, so allowing 17 sacks certainly isn’t helping.
The running game is less consistent, averaging 134 yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry – hardly sufficient to bail out a young quarterback. They’ve been decent on third and short, converting 11-of-15, but running the ball inside the red zone has been almost impossible, averaging 1.6 yards per carry.
The offense has moved the chains relatively well, holding onto the ball for 31:38 per game, but they’ve still converted just 39 percent of third downs. They’ve had their struggles in the red zone, as the running stat showed, scoring on just 16-of-24 attempts. Only 11 of those conversions were TDs. They’re not a million miles from being a good offense, but they certainly have work to do.
UCF Knights
The Knights’ defense is traditionally strong, but has rarely had to carry the offense to the degree it has so far this season. UCF is only averaging 23 points per game, and only 282 total yards per game. The running game in particular has been week, averaging just 101 yards per game in the absence of Storm Johnson. They’ve gotten better over the last couple of weeks, but need to get a lot better. One particular point to note is their futility on first down, averaging just 1.9 yards per carry. That tends to make second down a passing down, and the Knights have had their concerns passing.
Freshman Justin Holman has flashed some impressive ability, but has generally struggled, in part because of the lack of support from the running attack. The Knights are completing just 53.9 percent of their passes, although they’ve thrown six touchdowns compared to just two interceptions, but are averaging just 179 yards per game. The offense is converting 39.2 percent on third down, and has scored 12 times in 14 red zone trips, eight of them being TDs.
The defense is excellent, and will help win its fair share of games, but the offense has to pick up the pace to help get the Knights back on track.
*Stats used courtesy of www.cfbstats.com.
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