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Missouri Tigers (7-5, 5-4 in Big 12)

Most impressive victory: 17-5 vs Texas (Nov 12th)

Worst loss: 37-30 at Arizona State (Sept 9th)

Notable alumni: Sheryl Crow, Pat Forde, Jon Hamm, Brad Pitt, Sean Weatherspoon, James Wilder, Kellen Winslow

Despite having to break in a new QB I thought Missouri had a chance to be the surprise team of the Big 12 this season. However, that was not to be the case as they started out the season winning just four of their first nine games. It wasn’t a case of them being uncompetitive, as they lost four of the five games by ten points or less (their only 10+ point loss coming at the hands of Oklahoma State). Missouri was able to string together a three game win streak at the end of the season, including a game where they held Texas without a TD for the first time since 2004.

Missouri is led on offensive by their dual threat sophomore QB James Franklin. Franklin finished the year with 2740 yards passing with 20 TDs vs 10 INT and also ran for 839 yards and 13 TDs. Another soph, RB Henry Josey finished second in the Big 12 in rushing yards but he would have been first if he had not been lost to a season ending injury in the Texas game. Filling his role is Kendial Lawrence. Lawrence rushed for 263 yards in the last three games of the year. Missouri will need a big game from Lawrence as Josey will not be available. On offense it will be key for Missouri to get the ball to WR T.J. Moe (54 rec) and TE Michael Egnew (47 rec) as the Tigers should match up well with the Tar Heels secondary (which is 90th in the Nation in Passing Defense).

For the year, Missouri had one of the better defenses in the Big 12. They trailed only Oklahoma and Texas in points allowed (23.5 per game), finished 4th in rushing defense (135 yards per game) and 5th in passing defense (247.3 yards per game). When North Carolina has the ball keep an eye on DEs Jacquies Smith (5 sacks) and Brad Madison (4.5 sacks). If they can get pressure on Bryn Renner, who had the most INTs in the ACC, it could mean big things for the Tigers.

North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5, 3-5 in ACC)

Most impressive victory: 49-24 vs Wake Forest (Oct 29th)

Worst loss: 13-0 at North Carolina State (Nov. 5)

Notable alumni: Andy Griffith, Davis Love III,  Furman Bisher, James K Polk, Julius Peppers, Larry Brown, Lawrence Taylor, Michael Jordan, Peter Gammons, Vince Carter

It was tough picking out UNC’s “most impressive” victory. The Tar Heels had some OK wins this year: Virginia, Wake Forest, Louisville and Rutgers but nothing that stood out as a signature win. On the other hand the losses to Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl) and NC State defined the season for the Heels as a team that just couldn’t quite get over the hump. I had high hopes for UNC coming into the season (much like I did with Missouri) and the Tar Heels got off to a really good start going 5-1 in their first 6. Unforunately, the season turned on them and they finished 2-4 in their last 6 with the only wins being against Wake Forest and Duke.

When UNC has the ball the guy to watch is freshman RB Giovani Bernard. As Bernard goes, so go the Heels. In three of their five losses, Bernard has been held to under 50 yards rushing. When Bernard goes for 100+, they are 5-2. Soph QB Bryn Renner was up and down. His best and worst games came in back-to-back weeks at the end of the season as he threw for 300+ yards against Wake (and 3 TDs vs 0 INT) and then the next week he went 9 of 17 for 76 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT as the Heels got shut out by rival NC State. When the Tar Heels have the football you should see a steady diet of WR Dwight Jones. Jones caught at least five balls in 9 out of 11 games this year and finished with 79 catches on the season for 11 TDs.

On defense, the guys to watch are Quinton Coples (7.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) and Zach Brown (5.5 sacks and 91 tackles). What it will come down to for the Tar Heels is that they have to stop Missouri from being able to throw the ball around the field and that will be a tough task for these Heels as they’ve struggled to stop the pass this year. Not only did UNC give up the most passing yards in their conference this year but they also gave up the most TDs. Another key for UNC, and it sounds very basic, is simply winning the turnover battle. In their five losses, they lost the turnover battle by a total of 8.

The Pick

Kevin: I like Missouri’s balance on offense and I like that they’ve been more consistent this season than the Tar Heels have. When you have a Big 12 team playing an ACC team and the ACC team has a weak secondary, I think you have to go with the Big 12 team.

Missouri 31 UNC 21