It was a playoff instant classic last Saturday as the Patriots were able to be the first team to come back from two 14-point deficits to defeat the Baltimore Ravens 35-31. During the game, Tom Brady (now with 19 postseason wins) passed Joe Montana for the most touchdown passes in postseason history (46) with three touchdowns, including the game-winner to Brandon LaFell.
Even though the defense allowed four passing touchdowns to Joe Flacco, they were able to force two turnovers in the second half and hold Baltimore to three points over the final 30+ minutes of the game. With the win, the Patriots are now in their 9th AFC Championship Game and fourth straight in the Tom Brady Era. Now, New England stays home to take on a Colts’ team that pulled the shocker of last weekend when they upset Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos on the road.
The AFC South Champion Indianapolis Colts have been very strong on defense in this postseason, holding the Bengals and Broncos to a combined 23 points in two game. Of course, the leader of the Colts, Andrew Luck, has thrown for over 1700 yards in his playoff career. Indy’s defense has had five sacks thru the first two games of this postseason. Since New England’s 42-20 win at Lucas Oil Stadium against the Indy back in Week 11, Indy is somewhat of the same team, but this is not a game that should be taken lightly by Patriots’ fans.
Here are my three keys to Sunday’s AFC Championship Game (6:40 PM ET, CBS):
1. Handing It To Herron: The question that remains to be answered surrounding the Colts’ offense is how much of this game will they put on Luck? Indy’s rush offense averaged near 101 yards per game in the regular season, which was 22nd in the NFL. When these two teams played in the regular season, Ahmad Bradshaw was the main running back, but he broke his leg in that game against New England.
Since Week 12, Indy has turned to Daniel “Boom” Herron for the bulk of the running game (Trent Richardson was inactive last week vs. Denver). In the first two playoff games, the former Ohio State running back is averaging 3.4 yards per carry and has two touchdowns. However, Luck optimizes Herron in the passing game as well. He has the most receptions of any Colts (18) for 117 yards. He had 23 carries against the Broncos for 63 yards, but will the Colts’ offensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton, go to him for a similar workload this week.
As far as the Patriots’ run game, it has had some great success against the Colts, whether it was Jonas Gray’s 201 yards this season or LeGarrette Blount’s four touchdowns in the AFC Divisional Playoff last year. We saw the Patriots not even use the run game against the Ravens in the second half. New England should use a healthy dose of the run game against the Colts, but can Indy’s run defense actually slow down the Pats’ running attack this time around?
2. Where’s Walden: As I mentioned earlier, the Colts have recorded five sacks in the postseason to this point, but will they be able to pressure Tom Brady this week? Well, for one, it looks as if rookie center Bryan Stork might be out this week after hurting his knee against the Ravens last week. While Josh Kline did a good job filling in at right guard, can he keep it up for two weeks in a row if Stork can’t go?
The guy to watch in terms of a pass rush for the Colts is linebacker Erik Walden. Walden was second on the team in sacks with six (Josh Gordy led the team with 6.5). The seventh year linebacker out of Middle Tennessee State had a sack of Peyton Manning last week in their win at Denver. However, the Colts did not have one sack of Brady in that first meeting this season.
Now, to be fair to the Colts, the Patriots only had one sack in that game (Rob Ninkovich) and struggled to even get pressure on Joe Flacco last week. Is this the week where the Patriots get aggressive in their pursuit of Luck or do they keep his mobility in mind and make Luck throw to beat them rather than scramble?
The two players I would watch in this game that could get pressure would be Chandler Jones and Don’t’a Hightower. While Jamie Collins can be an option as well (five tackles in the first game), I tend to think the Patriots will lean toward a similar strategy that they had in last year’s playoff game. That strategy is to put Collins on tight end Coby Fleener, who had 144 receiving yards vs. the Patriots in Week 11.
3. Turnovers Being The Equalizer: When looking at the Colts’ postseason numbers, one of the stats that stood out to me is the fact they have not intercepted the quarterback once this postseason. Now, Indy had 12 interceptions during the regular season, but two of their top cornerbacks, Vontae Davis and Greg Toler, have missed practice this week due to injury.
The Patriots finished second in the NFL with a +12 turnover margin, but the Colts can force Tom Brady into some mistakes, such as the two interceptions from Mike Adams in the first matchup. Plus, Brady has thrown an interception in four of his last five games and has been prone to making mistakes late in the first half of some of these games.
Now, for the Colts, one of the dangers of having their quarterback throw the ball 50 times is Luck taking too many chances. In his short postseason career, Luck has ten interceptions, with four of them coming in the AFC Divisional Round vs. the Patriots last season. The two interceptions vs. Denver were basically punts for Luck, but this is a game where the Colts have to be near perfect to have a chance to advance to Arizona and the Super Bowl.
PREDICTION
For this matchup, the 1-on-1matchup that will be intriguing to watch is Darrelle Revis vs. T.Y. Hilton. If Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia choose to play man-to-man, it is tough to see Revis having two bad games in a row after having a sub-par game vs. the Ravens. If Revis can keep Hilton on the proverbial island, is this the game where Luck relies on veteran Reggie Wayne and his AFC Championship experience after just one catch in the playoffs so far.
Luck does his best when he is spreading out to different receivers and could choose to test the other members of the Patriots’ secondary, throwing to guys like Hakeem Nicks and Donte Moncrief.
However, with the injuries to the Colts’ secondary, Brady should be able to get the ball to Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman often. Plus, it’s been huge for Josh McDaniels’ offense that Danny Amendola has found his form down the stretch to give the team a fourth option behind Gronk, Edelman, and Brandon LaFell.
While I expect this game to be closer than people think, the Patriots’ defense will get a couple key takeaways in this game and be able to continue their success on the ground. I do believe Andrew Luck will get to a Super Bowl eventually in his career and Chuck Pagano is one heck of a coach, but this is the Patriots’ time. New England goes to their sixth Super Bowl in the Tom Brady era.
PATRIOTS 31 COLTS 23
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