The Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts will face off in an AFC Wild-Card match-up today at 1:05 pm ET on the road to Arizona and the Super Bowl. The Colts, led by quarterback Andrew Luck, will be making their third consecutive playoff appearance. Luck, the first pick in the 2012 draft, has been less than stellar during his playoff career.
In three games, Luck has completed a measly 55 percent of his passes with a 6:8 TD to INT ratio. As always, the quarterback is the key and Luck must replicate his regular season numbers in order for the Colts to overcome the Bengals. That may not be hard in this particular game because although the Bengals rank in the top half of pass coverage their pass rush defense is the worst in the NFL by a large margin, according to Pro Football Focus. Luck will have ample time in the pocket which he will need due to the Colts non-existent run game.
On the other side of the field, the Bengals will be making their fourth consecutive playoff appearance under coach Marvin Lewis. Despite making the playoffs in four consecutive years, a win has been elusive to the Bengals. In 2011 and 2012, they lost to the Houston Texans in the Wild-Card round and last year, they lost handily to the San Diego Chargers 27-10.
A big knock on Bengals starting quarterback Andy Dalton, has been his inabilities to not only win in the playoffs but to provide any type of success from the quarterback position. Dalton, 0-3 in the playoffs has a disgusting 1:6 TD to INT ratio. Two things that will not help Dalton; his number one target, A.J. Green will most likely miss the game due to a concussion and the Indianapolis Colts have a top 10 pass coverage defense. The Bengals, due to Dalton’s history and the absence of A.J. Green, will have to heavily rely on their run game. Second round pick Jeremy Hill will have to step up in his first playoff appearance. Over the course of the 2014 season, Hill has taken over the feature back reigns from Giovani Bernard by averaging 5.1 yards per carry, rushing for nine touchdowns and showing some versatility by catching 27 balls out of the backfield.
The Colts need to pass the ball effectively. The Bengals need to run the ball effectively. This game will be determined by the better defense and Andy Dalton’s demons. Will Andy Dalton’s history of failure in the playoffs be too much for him and the Bengals to overcome? I think this psychological factor plays into the game. I also know that the Colts defense is better than the Bengals and this will be the determining factor with Indianapolis winning 28-17.
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