Since new ownership took over the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2012, the organization has set the following precedent: money is no obstacle when it comes to putting a winning product on the field.
On Opening Day back in 2012, L.A. had the fourth-highest payroll in baseball, sitting just north of $160 million. By the time 2015 came to a close, their $301 million payroll was easily the highest in the league. Heck, they paid over $40 million to guys last year who weren’t even on the roster.
That’s why just about no Dodger fan was truly scared about the idea of losing starting pitcher Zack Greinke via free agency.
Or so we thought.
Here's to the future. #JoinTheEvolution pic.twitter.com/e8CvUB6gIC
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) December 11, 2015
The Dodgers were competing with the San Francisco Giants for his services, until the Arizona Diamondbacks came out of nowhere and blew them both out of the water. It left Los Angeles in a very unfamiliar situation – getting outbid by a team in a much smaller market for arguably the best available starting pitcher.
This series of events likely made fans some combination of sad, angry or confused (or all of the above), especially when other top-tier options like David Price and Johnny Cueto also didn’t land in Hollywood.
Judging from the contracts Price and Greinke both received, it’s not fiscally responsible to pair one of those two with Clayton Kershaw, who is also in the midst of a $200 million contract, let alone all three. Then again, this is the Dodgers we’re talking about. Money is no object! Knowing that, some people actually expected L.A. to not only re-sign Greinke, but also lure Price to town, forming a ridiculously good (and expensive) three-headed monster.
This was actually a real idea – so real that Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports mentioned it in a recent article:
“The expectations probably were unfair, but they existed nonetheless: When the offseason began, the Dodgers were supposed to re-sign Zack Greinke and lure David Price to L.A. with an astronomical offer, creating a rotation for the ages.”
Having those ridiculous thoughts and actually thinking they could come true are officially a thing of the past. Actually, it was a thing of the past once the organization hired former Tampa Bay Rays general manager Andrew Friedman to be their President of Baseball Operations.
This didn’t mean Los Angeles would go from being big spenders to penny pinchers like the Rays, but this was an ideal situation for Friedman after working with a tight budget for so many years. If a player is truly worth a mammoth contract, his team could easily afford it. If the player isn’t worth it, they could just move on to the next one without a problem.
But how could he let about one year and $30 million be the difference between scrambling for other rotation options and having one of the game’s most feared one-two punches?!
Pairing Kershaw and Greinke at the top of any rotation is a dream come true, and the Dodgers lived the dream for three years. In 2015, they combined to win 35 games, throw 455.1 innings, strike out 501 hitters and they each had sub-2.20 ERAs.
Oh, and they combined for a WAR of 14.5, which was a better than 21 different starting rotations last season. As wonderful as that production was – and don’t get me wrong, it was a huge reason why they made it to the postseason – it masked bigger issues in L.A.
Outside of these two, only Brett Anderson and Mike Bolsinger registered 100-plus innings pitched in 2015. Former manager Don Mattingly sent 16 different pitchers out to start a game, and they had to make a couple midseason acquisitions for back-of-the-rotation guys like Alex Wood and Mat Latos for that to even happen.
Did Friedman and Co. want to bring Greinke back on their own terms? Of course! However, there’s another argument to have here: with him and Kershaw leading the way, they never became champions.
Yes, they won three straight division titles, but they never reached the World Series, let alone win it.
Instead of opting for more of the same – paying Kershaw and Greinke a bunch of money and hoping the rest falls into place – they opted for more depth, flexibility (both financially and on the roster) and upside.
Having Kershaw still anchoring the top of their rotation certainly made this shift in strategy much easier. If L.A. didn’t have a clear-cut ace, they would’ve probably had no choice but to throw a ton of money at a top-tier pitcher this winter. Kind of like what Arizona did.
So, with him leading the way and Anderson returning after accepting his one-year qualifying offer, the hurlers occupying the Dodgers’ 2016 rotation is currently projected to include Kershaw, Scott Kazmir, Kenta Maeda, Brett Anderson and Hyun-Jin Ryu (pending the health of his shoulder).
They also still have Bolsinger and Wood available as depth pieces, which is what they really should be. Brandon McCarthy will soon be back once he’s finished rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, as well.
Although both Kazmir and Maeda signed multi-year deals, we shouldn’t be ruling out the motivation factor in their projected performances this season thanks to some creativity from the front office.
Kazmir is officially on board for three years and $48 million, but he can opt-out next winter and once again be a free agent. Have you seen the projected free agents for next winter? I’d be motivated to potentially maximize my earning potential, too.
Why Kenta Maeda offers high upside https://t.co/NXaLNubtoh pic.twitter.com/b8NaBJTaKm
— Dodger Insider (@DodgerInsider) January 7, 2016
Maeda is officially on board for eight years and $25 million, but it’s probably one of the most creative deals we’ve ever seen. While his guaranteed pay is low, there are a number of incentives each year that could push the total investment to over $90 million. The right-hander is basically betting on himself, and L.A. will gladly pay those incentives since it means he’d be healthy and likely pitching at a high level.
So, if Kazmir pitches well enough to opt out, the Dodgers get a great year from him, along with the roster and financial flexibility to make another major acquisition for the future. Who knows, maybe they’d kick the tires again on a potential blockbuster deal for Jose Fernandez. If he doesn’t, they’re not on the hook for a lot of money in the long-term (in their eyes).
If Maeda doesn’t pan out as hoped, a move to the bullpen or another team in a trade wouldn’t be outrageous because his financial commitment is so low.
If neither works out, they have depth pieces in place to help in the short-term. They can also go out and make a major mid-year acquisition, which we’ve seen them do recently.
At a quick glance, it appears that the Dodgers didn’t get better as a ball club after losing Greinke, but they really did. There’s more flexibility available to them, and these moves give them a chance to win now, along with the ability to properly plan for the future.
Just throwing a bunch of money at the best players got them to the playoffs, but not over the hump and into the World Series. It’s time to try something different. Something more sustainable. That’s why the Dodgers plucked Friedman from Tampa Bay – to lead the way in this new strategy to spend aggressively, but not recklessly.
Now, it’s time to trust the process and see what the results look like.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter so we can get through a winter without baseball together: @mmusico8.
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