If you are consciously more aggressive on fourth down, it opens up the playbook on third down. Obvious passing downs become not so obvious, the defense has to be expecting anything, and the offense can function more efficiently. By embracing an aggressive fourth down strategy, where, as Haley notes, they are in four down mode in many situations, Cassel is not put in as many situations where the defense is “pinning their ears back” and rushing the passer with abandon.
This is exactly what we see with Kansas City in 2010. The Chiefs are roughly in line with the rest of the league on 3rd and 1. This is a running situation, and the Chiefs run it 70% of the time (72% league average). After that, though, Kansas City remains more balanced and unpredictable, and continue to feature their strength (the running backs) because the coach is willing to go for it if they come up just short of a first down.
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