If you eliminate all of the drama surrounding AJ Burnett’s departure from the Pirates last winter, we’re left with a few important facts. AJ Burnett is 38 years old, coming off of a relatively bad season in which he pitched with a sports hernia and saw his strikeouts go down with his velocity while his walks went up. In fact, he lead the National League in walks and earned runs. At the same time, his FIP, 4.14, was virtually identical to the pitcher that he’s more or less replacing (Edinson Volquez was at 4.15) and he’s just one season removed from 2013, when he lead the National League with a 9.8 K/9 strikeout rate. That leaves us with a sort of delicate balancing act when writing about what to expect from Burnett in 2015. His age, the declining velocity, and the ugly stats from last year are all worrisome, but they could be off-set but a recovery from the hernia, a reunion with Ray Searage, a return to PNC Park, and a spot in front of the Pirates’ defense and the shifts that he hated so much in his first Pirate stint. The only thing that can’t be off-set is the age, which is what makes all of the potential recovery points uncertain.
I don’t want to go to deep into uncertain waters speculating what may or may not have transpired between Burnett and Huntington last off-season, but I do think that it’s worth noting that (without knowing the full story) Burnett certainly seemed to act like a guy that was considering retirement last winter. Really, no one seemed to hear much from Burnett until after Christmas. The Pirates maintained that they didn’t hear much from him, either. In the end, the story was that Burnett coached basketball with one of the Phillies’ assistant GMs, and that he eventually got an offer he couldn’t refuse.
This winter was much different; Burnett opted out of his contract with the Phillies on November 3rd and was a Pirate again on November 14th. Put more simply: there is no mistaking that Burnett wants to pitch in 2015, and he wants to do it for the Pirates. Burnett has made literally more than $135 million in his career, he was bad last year, and he was injured. I think that the fact that he wants to do this could be important.
Honestly, I understand the risks at play here, but I don’t think that it’s unreasonable to guess that AJ Burnett will be a better pitcher for the Pirates in 2015 than Edinson Volquez will for the Royals. As bad as he was last year, it’s hard to not put some blame on the hernia and some blame on the terrible Phillies’ players behind him. He’s back in the place where he’s had some of his best seasons, and it’s somewhere he wants to be. It’s possible that his age will make this season go poorly, but I think putting him back in the rotation is a good gamble by the Pirates.
<500 is an ongoing series previewing 2015 for each key Pirate in fewer than 500 words.
Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
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