Like most Alabama fans, I’ve spent a lot of time over the past two months contemplating what went wrong against LSU on November 5th. But unlike most, I’ve actually mustered the inner fortitude to rewatch that game, multiple times. Most recently, I spent Saturday morning reliving the agony. So as we sit here, less than 24 hours from kickoff, I thought I’d share a few bite-sized thoughts on certain points of interest from The Game of the Century and what they might mean for The Game of the Century, Too.
THEN: AJ McCarron threw for 199 yards.
Prior to the game, on this very site, I said that whichever quarterback threw for 200 yards, his team would lose. Well, I guess 199 yards was close enough. I said that because not only are you playing into the strength of the Tide and Tiger defenses when you drop back to pass and put the ball in the air, but you’re also taking the ball out of the hands of your best players (the running backs for both teams). Playing your weakness against your opponents’ strength is not how you win big games. Nevertheless, that’s what Alabama did quite a bit on November 5th, never more infuriatingly than in overtime when Trent Richardson didn’t get a single handoff. Not that McCarron played that badly, really. Completing 57% of your passes is a pretty strong effort against LSU’s secondary, and he showed great poise throwing with his back up against the endzone on a few occasions. But he did miss two sure touchdowns on misreads of the defense (or a complete non-read of the defense in the case of what would have been a waltz-in TD for Brandon Gibson) and threw a lousy interception on an intermediate throw to the right that hung in the air forever (all of his throws to the right hung in the air in that game, he was just off).
NOW: While I don’t think the Bama coaching staff is afraid of letting McCarron throw the ball a lot in this game, I think you’ll see more of a concerted effort to keep the ball in Richardson’s hands, especially in clutch situations, when down and distance allows. Having a healthier Eddie Lacy at the team’s disposal should also give the Tide more opportunities to keep the ball in their comfort zone.
THEN: Trent Richardson rushed to the outside for an 18-yard gain on the 1st play from scrimmage
Also prior to the first matchup, I made an extensive argument here as to why I thought Alabama absolutely SHOULD NOT attempt to run to the outside or utilize slow-developing run plays against LSU. I went so far as to say they should all be ripped out of the playbook for this game. So, of course, on their very first play, they run outside for a big gain. This was probably the worst thing that could have happened, because it gave the coaching staff a false belief that they could have some degree of consistent success running outside. But they really couldn’t, and they didn’t. In fact, on Alabama’s first 3 drives of the game (you know, the ones that resulted in missed/blocked field goals), they were all short-circuited in scoring position when the Tide was stopped for losses of 5 yards or more on outside run plays.
NOW: Hopefully, Alabama watched the tape and will lay off the outside runs this time around. Aside from that first play, all of the Tide’s big rushing gains came on runs between the tackles. They also had a fair amount of success on misdirection plays where they showed action to the outside only to hand it off up the middle. More of that should be in order, and fewer toss sweeps or reverses, if they expect to see a different result.
THEN: Three Bama starters suffered injuries in the second half.
Marquis Maze suffered an ankle injury midway through the 3rd quarter, and soon after, Barrett Jones went down. Both ultimately returned to the game, but clearly neither were their typical selves after that. Later in the 4th quarter, Dre Kirkpatrick was lost for the game following a hard foul from Tyrann Mathieu. All of those injuries impacted the game to varying degrees, but none moreso than Maze’s. It was his inability to plant solidly on his ankle that contributed to his moonshot of a throw to Michael Williams on that fateful igoal line interception. And again it was his ankle that impeded his ability to field Brad Wing’s 73-yard punt that effectively killed the Tide’s last real opportunity to score in the 4th.
NOW: Jones and Kirkpatrick are both fully recovered from their injuries, and hopefully they’ll get to play a full, healthy 4 quarters on Monday night. But Maze hasn’t been himself since. In Alabama’s last 3 games, he has only caught 11 passes for 84 yards. He’ll need to recapture his old form as a threat to get over the top of a defense and make plays in the open field for the Bama offense to be at it’s best.
THEN: Michael Ford rushed 11 times for 72 yards.
In somewhat of a surprise to me, Alabama dominated LSU’s offensive line between the tackles. Even Bama’s Mount Cody-anchored DL’s had their problems with the Tiger’s physical downhill running game. But LSU’s bellcow back, Spencer Ware, managed only 29 yards on 16 carries the first time around. It wasn’t until Jordan Jefferson took over QB duties and introduced the option into the Tigers’ offensive equation that LSU began to have any success on the ground, with Ford being the big playmaker. The game was LSU’s to win after Alabama’s botched overtime possession, but Ford’s huge run inside the 10-yard line made it inevitable.
NOW: A lot has been made of LSU’s success with the option (and Alabama’s subsequent struggles against Georgia Southern’s flexbone offense). But while I would expect to see more of that since that’s a big part of what LSU does with Jefferson under center, I highly doubt we’re going to see some wild new all-option attack. LSU is still going to be LSU, they’re still going to run it up between the tackles with a fullback lead and then try to run play action off that. At most, we’ll probably see an option pass at some point, and maybe a bit of a triple option look with Kenny Hilliard at FB here and there. The big issue for Alabama in this game will be doing a better job playing cut blocks on the perimeter than they did last time. If that hasn’t improved, LSU likely won’t need any new wrinkles to move the ball.
THEN: Rueben Randle caught 2 passes for 19 yards.
That stat line really surprised me. Sure, it was understood going into the game that Alabama would make Randle a high priority, but even with all that attention, you’d expect a player of his caliber to make more plays than that. Part of that was Bama playing him tight, but part of it was LSU just not engineering ways to get the ball in his hands, and another was Randle missing some opportunities, including a potential TD catch at the end of the first half.
NOW: LSU won’t let Randle put up such a pitiful stat line in this game, at least not without a tremendous effort from Bama’s defense. Look for them to attempt to establish Randle early in the game with quick slants on early downs and screens and some deep throws. Part of LSU’s problem when Jefferson was in the game was that all the action was happening within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. I expect them to make it a point to stretch the Tide vertically in the 1st quarter in order to open things up for their big guys, Ware and Hilliard.
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