With all of the worrying yesterday about Mike Trout and his pending decision on whether he will or will not participate in the Home Run Derby, I went and forgot that his dinger partner in the lineup, Albert Pujols, also has a statistically good case for being included in the extracurricular festivities next week in Cincinnati.
And I know what you are thinking. You’re thinking I am going to write another letter that will not be seen by a Major League Baseball player. But, au contraire, that is simply not the case. You see, although I really am not a fan of Angels players participating in the Derby, I am not afraid to back the idea of a player participating if he has proven in the past that, by taking part in the Derby, it hasn’t affected his performance in baseball games that actually matter.
When it comes to Mike Trout participating in the Home Run Derby, there are too many unknowns surrounding his possible inclusion. And by unknowns I mean, he has never participated, so we don’t know what kind of aftereffects the Derby will have on his swing and the health of his body. Maybe nothing. This is Mike Trout, after all, and would it really surprise anyone if he went on playing like being a part of the Derby was not that big of a deal? Yeah, it wouldn’t surprise me either. But, why risk it, right? The unknown scares me, and by avoiding the unknown, I personally am less frightened. And that’s all that really matters.
In Albert Pujols’ case though, he has participated in a Home Run Derby in the past, three of them, actually. He was a contestant in the 2003, 2007 and 2009 Home Run Derby’s. So we can go back to those seasons and look at his splits and see if he suffered any ill effects from his participation. And considering that he is currently leading the American League in home runs, and is only one off of the Major League pace that has been set by the currently injured Giancarlo Stanton, Albert Pujols almost has a moral obligation to the unwritten rules of baseball to participate, which he has said he will. We’ll start from the top with the 2003 season and see if his inclusion in the event led to any issues with his hitting after the All-Star Break.
Not bad. In 2003 he had a slight dip in his batting average and slugging numbers, but his wRC+ only dropped four points and his ISO went from “holy shit” at .322 to “damn, that’s good” at .288. He hit 11 less home runs that season after the All-Star Break (16 compared to 27 before), but he also played in 29 fewer games after the break (64 to 93). I’m going to make an executive ruling right now and say that Albert Pujols, in 2003, was essentially the same hitter after the Derby as he was before. Agreed? Good. Now, let’s move on to 2007.
/chuckles uncontrollably
That can’t be right, can it? Across that board in 2007, Pujols got better. A lot better. A near 40 point increase in his wRC+ numbers, his slugging went up 115 points, his ISO went up 76 points, his wOBA went up 56 points. It’s almost as if he was a… wait for it… a machine. The reality of those splits, however, is that they are absurd, and it also points to no ill effects from the Derby. Hell, it was almost as if participating in the Derby helped Pujols that year. Let’s see what 2009 has to offer.
Just like in 2003, Albert Pujols went from the Greek God of baseball to being simply better than just about anyone else in the game. Any ill effects from his participation have him simply being more mortal. And considering the pace he was on before the Derby in 2009, he was bound to slide back a little bit anyway. He has never finished a season with a slugging percentage above .700 like he was putting up before the break in 2009, and his best ISO in a single season was .340 in 2006. Why not .391? Because a .391 ISO is silly talk. Only 12 times since 1901 has a player finished a season with an ISO above .390. One was Lou Gehrig and one was Sammy Sosa The other ten are split between Mark McGwire (three times), Babe Ruth (three times) and Barry Bonds (four times). In other words, you needed to be one of the greatest power hitters to ever walk the planet, or on steroids. Those are the choices.
This will be Albert Pujols’ fourth time participating in the Home Run Derby, and his first as an Angel. He only has so many good seasons left before we start making plans to push him out sea on an ice float to die. His past numbers indicate that the Home Run Derby doesn’t affect him, and I would bet money on it being because of how professional Albert Pujols is as a hitter. What’s one more attempt by Albert to win the Derby? It hasn’t been an issue before, stands to reason that it won’t be an issue now either.
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