After nine years of waiting, the American League Championship Series returns to Cleveland. It starts tonight with a terrific pitching matchup between two of the hottest starters in the American League. The Toronto Base ball club will make its epic return to Northeast Ohio for the first time since that entertaining three game series in late August.
The weather will be perfect for tonights game: Lasting sunshine and temperatures in the mid 50’s for first pitch.
Here are the starting pitchers:
Corey Kluber’s arsenal include a lot of well-located low-to-mid-90s fastballs and, oh by the way, that trademark putaway slider — all delivered from easy-breezy mechanics. Something else to watch for: how he deploys his cutter, typically when he falls behind and wants to outrun barrels.
Kluber faced the Toronto Base ball club twice during the regular season. His first outing didn’t go so well as he was chased in the fourth after allowing five runs. The rematch in late August went better for Kluber: he held Toronto to two runs in six-plus frames, all the while fanning eight batters. It’s worth noting Kluber had two starts all season where he walked four (or more) batters and both were against Toronto.
[mlbvideo id=”1206016483″ width=”400″ height=”224″ /]Marco Estrada is better than he’s ever been. When he was younger, he threw about a league-average fastball. Now he’s four ticks below the league mark. Marco Estrada is a finesse pitcher, and as a general rule, finesse pitchers are worse than non-finesse pitchers. But the best ones — they succeed in part because of their own abilities to locate, but they succeed also by turning hitters against their own selves. Power pitchers force a hitter to shorten up. Finesse pitchers tempt a hitter to lengthen. They tempt hitters to come out of their shoes, as if a 500-foot homer means more than its 400-foot equivalent. Facing a Marco Estrada is a test in self-discipline. As we’ve all experienced for ourselves, when pressure starts to mount, self-discipline can unravel.
Estrada has had an interesting career arc. Formerly an afterthought who was available on waivers, he’s since ascended all the way to Game-1-starter status behind his high-grade changeup and deceptive mechanics. He has a short arm stroke and an over-the-top release point, making ball-tracking difficult.
Expect Estrada to attack the zone with his upper-80s fastball early in counts, dropping in a curve or cutting the ball to evade barrels. You and everyone else knows his backspin-heavy changeup is coming later on, but that knowledge doesn’t make the pitch any less effective.
Estrada dominated the Rangers last Thursday, Texas hitters frequently swinging out of their shoes. Even knocking Estrada around might not have done much: The Blue Jays won by nine runs. But Estrada came close to a complete-game road shutout, and his finesse style repertoire worked to perfection. Too often, the Rangers couldn’t help themselves but overswing:
When Estrada’s changeup is on point, hitters generally look like fools. It’s like it’s some kind of secret, something that Estrada just busted out out of nowhere for the one game alone, but of course Estrada’s whole deal is his changeup. It’s one of the best changeups in baseball, and it causes hitters to do silly things until they start to sit on it, in which event Estrada can flip to the high heater that suddenly looks like it’s blazing in at 100 mph. Mitch Moreland wasn’t counting on a 1-and-1 changeup. Why the hell not? Who did he think he was facing? As Moreland finished his swing, he was basically facing Estrada square:
[mlbvideo id=”1203250183″ width=”400″ height=”224″ /]Estrada faced the Indians once during the season. That start came in early July, when he tossed five innings and allowed three runs. Estrada did strike out seven batters, and Toronto won a 9-6 slugfest. They would obviously take that result again.
No Indians batter has faced Estrada, who was exclusive to the NL prior to 2015, more than seven times.
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