With their backs against the wall, the Blue Jays staved off a sweep in Game 4 and will send Marco Estrada to the mound in Game 5 hoping to live to see another day. The Jays are trying to become just the second team in baseball history to come back from a three-game deficit in a best-of-seven championship series. Only the 2004 Boston Red Sox have done it. The other five teams to fall behind 0-3 were all swept.
The Indians will counter with rookie Ryan Merritt. The last time the Indians won the World Series, they had a rookie starting pitcher on the mound the day they clinched the pennant (Gene Bearden). They will try to clinch their first American League pennant since 1997.
Edwin Encarnacion, the Jays’ veteran first baseman, collected 127 RBIs this season, tied for the most in the American League but had yet to drive in a run in the series before driving in a pair in Game 4. The Jays need him to produce again if they have any hope of clawing their way back into it.
Ryan Merritt
Ryan Merritt made his first and only career big-league start three weeks ago in the final series of the regular season, when he allowed one run on three hits over five innings against the Royals. Merritt, a 16th-round draft pick, was not initially on Cleveland’s playoff roster, but was added because Francona said his workload in the minor leagues stretched him out, making him a better starting option than Mike Clevinger. The 24-year-old Texan doesn’t throw hard his average fastball velocity is about 88 m.p.h. but mixes four pitches and has had some success in the minors. Merritt is a stereotyped finesse lefty: fastball at 87-91, average curveball, average change-up, excellent control, low-maintenance mechanics, impressive pitching instincts, good record for durability:
[protected-iframe id=”c32d846b2626299933afeed07bafcc72-114320562-107853376″ info=”c32d846b2626299933afeed07bafcc72″ ]A 16th round pick in 2011 from McClelland Community College in Texas, he passed the Double-A test last season at Akron. Merritt’s stuff isn’t quite as good as teammate Shawn Morimando’s, but Merritt has more consistent command. A caution flag is his low strikeout rate and that does not bode well for the Indians as the Blue Jays feast on pitchers who stay around the strike zone.
The Blue Jays were just 23-20 vs lefty starters this season and yet were 13-games over .500 vs righties.
Marco Estrada
Marco Estrada made a career-high 29 starts this season, surpassing the 28 made in 2015. He was named to his first All-Star team, but was unable to participate due to stint on DL. Estrada led all Jays starters with an 8.44 K/9. His .203 opponents’ average led the AL, ahead of Justin Verlander at .207, while ranking 3rd in MLB. 2016 marked the 2nd straight year to lead the AL in opponents’ average with an identical .203 mark.
Estrada allowed more than three earned runs only six times in his 29 outings this season and became the 1st pitcher in MLB history to record 12 consecutive starts allowing 5 hits or less with at least 6.0 IP of work from April 27 – July 7th.
Estrada threw his changeup 28.6% of the time, most in MLB. That rate increased to 42.7% on two-strike counts. His ground ball pct. of 33.5 was the 5th lowest in MLB in 2016. Only Weaver (28.8), Smyly (31.3), Straily (32.0) & Scherzer (33.0) have lower GB rates.He has recorded just 12 GIDP’s (5.4%) in over his last two seasons, the lowest rate in MLB.
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