ALDS Game 3 Preview: From The Napoli Party To The Tea Party

Weather Will Be A Factor

Rain is baseball’s natural enemy. Even more so in the postseason when the schedule is already tight and postponing games become the last resort. The remnants of hurricane Matthew is traveling up the east coast and will bring a damp evening for game 3. When the weather is damp and rainy, the ball does not carry as far because the air is heavy.

The Indians relied on the long ball in games one and two as six of their 11 runs scored were via the homerun. Do not expect this trend to continue with the damp, heavy air this afternoon in Boston.

Clay Buchholz

The memory of the dominant Buchholz from the first half of 2013 is pretty distant at this point. In the last three seasons combined, he’s 23-28 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Buchholz was even sent to the bullpen earlier this season (three times, technically) before being forced back into the rotation.

Since rejoining the rotation, Buchholz has actually been pretty good. He made five starts in September, going 3-0 with a 3.14 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .219/.291/.343 line.

There is cause for concern, given the venue. Buchholz posted a 3.90 ERA on the road this season, but a whopping 5.60 in Fenway Park. In 72.1 innings at home, he allowed 14 homers while opposing hitters slashed .276/.341/.495 against him.

Three Indians players have seen Buchholz at least 20 times.

Rajai Davis: .211/.348/.211 in 23 plate apperances
Mike Napoli: .250/.429/.500 in 21 PA
Coco Crisp: .278/.350/.444 in 20 PA

Jason Kipnis (4-8, 2B, HR) and Carlos Santana (4-8, 2 2B, HR) have had some tiny sample-size success.

Here is Santana with a three-run bomb off Buchholz from early April:

Josh Tomlin

Through July, Tomlin was 11-3 with a 3.43 ERA. He was so bad through August (0-5, 11.48 in six starts) that he lost his spot in the rotation; however, injuries have forced him back into action. He did make four starts in September and posted a 1.75 ERA in 25 2/3 innings, so he has bounced back from the awful month.

As far as Tomlin’s home/road splits, it shouldn’t make a huge difference. His home ERA was 4.50 compared to 4.31 on the road this year. In three career Fenway Park starts, he has a 5.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

We’re not going to dive any deeper on individual stats when it comes to Tomlin, though, because he isn’t expected to work deep into the game. Expect Terry Francona to lean heavily on his excellent bullpen, especially if they get an early lead. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Andrew Miller in the fifth inning again. He could even come on earlier depending on the situation, although they are more likely to go with Mike Clevinger or Cody Anderson if they need innings early on.